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Probabilistic estimation of seismic parameters for Bangladesh

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Abstract

This paper estimates the following seismic parameters: the maximum recorded magnitude (Mmax), the Gutenberg-Richter b-value, the annual rate of exceedance of particular magnitude, and return period of that magnitude are examined. The catalog is extracted from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) catalog. The working catalog, originated from longitude 87 to 93 and latitude 20 to 27 that covers the whole Bangladesh and some parts of India and Myanmar, contains 406 events from 1918 to 2017. To define the working catalog, magnitudes were converted into moment magnitude. All parameters had been calculated from the time-independent catalog. Since no formula available in the literature to calculate the confidence interval for annual rate and return period, the confidence interval of the estimates were calculated using simulation technique. For this case, 100,000 simulations were considered and calculated 0.025th and 0.975th quantiles of the simulated values as 95% confidence interval.

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Abbreviations

ANSS:

Advanced National Seismic System

CI:

confidence interval

G-R:

Gutenberg-Richter

M or Mw :

moment magnitude

MLE:

maximum likelihood estimate

PHSA:

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

USGS:

United States Geological Survey

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. BRAC James P Grant School of Public Health, BRAC University, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh

    Belal Hossain

  2. School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada

    Belal Hossain

  3. Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT), University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh

    Syed Shahadat Hossain

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  1. Belal Hossain
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  2. Syed Shahadat Hossain
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Correspondence to Belal Hossain.

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Responsible Editor: Amjad Kallel

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Hossain, B., Hossain, S.S. Probabilistic estimation of seismic parameters for Bangladesh. Arab J Geosci 13, 262 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-5250-y

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