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Simulation and projection of extreme climate events in China under RCP4.5 scenario

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Abstract

Investigating changes in extreme precipitation is critical for flood management and risk assessment in the context of climate change. Based on China’s Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M) provided by ISI-MIP, eight extreme climate event indexes, which are Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, R10mm, R20mm, CDD, CWD, and R95pTOT, were calculated. This research uses two principles of minimum relative error of mean value and best fit probability distribution to select relative optimal climate models. The results show that the five selected climate models have a better performance in reproducing CDD, R10, RX5D, and SDII, so this research only selected the relative optimal climate models for these four indexes to discuss the future change of extreme precipitation in China; besides, the intensity of precipitation event will be stronger and bigger risk of flood will occur in Huang-huai-hai River Basin in the future. This research is essential for water resources research and the development of strategies of China to adapt to climate change.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program Project (2012BAC19B03,2013BAC10B01); the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51279207); research subject of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (2015ZY02).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China, 100038

    Jun Yin, Zhixia Xu, Denghua Yan, Zhe Yuan, Yong Yuan & Zhiyong Yang

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  1. Jun Yin
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  2. Zhixia Xu
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  3. Denghua Yan
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  4. Zhe Yuan
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  5. Yong Yuan
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  6. Zhiyong Yang
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Correspondence to Denghua Yan.

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Yin, J., Xu, Z., Yan, D. et al. Simulation and projection of extreme climate events in China under RCP4.5 scenario. Arab J Geosci 9, 89 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2022-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2022-1

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