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Sea level rise scenario for 2100 A.D. for the archaeological site of Motya

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Abstract

In this study, we analyze the impact of the sea level rise induced by climate change on the coastal cultural heritage site of Motya, the Phoenician colony (IV–III millennium B.P.) located in the San Pantaleo island, NW corner of Sicily (southern Italy). In particular, we assessed the effects of this phenomenon on the human settlement in the past 2400 years and the expected sea level rise scenario for the next decades. A detailed flooding scenario for 2100 from direct observations and two models, taking into account the contribution of Vertical Land Movements (VLM), is provided. The surface topography is derived from a novel high-resolution/high-accuracy digital surface model (DSM), which was performed through an Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) survey, whereas the rate of VLM was estimated by the analysis of geodetic data at three Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS) stations located close to the island. To estimate the local mean sea level and to correct the tide level (TL) at the epoch of UAV survey, the hydrometric recordings of the nearest sea level gauge station located at Porto Empedocle (Sicily), were used. Two flooding scenarios for 2100 were then represented on the high-resolution DSM, using the regional sea-level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Mediterranean region. According to the RCP 8.5 climatic model, a difference of about + 59 cm above the local mean sea level between the current and the expected coastline positions at 2100 A.D., was found. In addition, by adding the average half amplitude of the daily tide, equal to about 30 cm, a maximum flooding scenario was determined. Finally, in the maximum condition of sea level rise, a significant flooding on the archaeological structures is expected for the Kothon area and along the North-West coast of the island.

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Acknowledgements

We dedicate this study to the beloved Sebastiano Tusa, marine archaeologist and Head of Cultural Heritage of Sicily, died on March 10, 2019 in the Ethiopian air crash. The authors desire to thank Leica Geosystems AG (Heerbrugg, Switzerland) and Aibotix GmbH (Kassel, Germany) for kindly supplying the photogrammetric fully equipped Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, GPS receivers and other ground instruments, together with expert personnel, to very valuably support the survey campaign at Motya and the preliminary photogrammetric processing of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle collected imagery. This study has been partially supported by the 2011–2013 MIUR-PRIN (Project: Response of morphoclimatic system dynamics to global changes and related geomorphologic hazard) and under the umbrella of the SAVEMEDCOASTS Project, funded by the EU (Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2016/742473/PREV16). Special thanks are also addressed to the Superintendency of Trapani and to the G. Whitaker Foundation, Palermo for allowing this study within the framework of the research activities of the Sapienza University of Rome Archaeological Expedition to Motya.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geodesy and Geomatics Division, DICEA, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy

    R. Ravanelli & M. Crespi

  2. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy

    F. Riguzzi & M. Anzidei

  3. Radboud Radio Lab, Department of Astrophysics/IMAPP, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    A. Vecchio

  4. LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Université de Paris, Meudon, France

    A. Vecchio

  5. Department of Oriental Studies, Sapienza University of Rome, Archaeological Expedition to Motya, Rome, Italy

    L. Nigro & F. Spagnoli

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  1. R. Ravanelli
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  4. A. Vecchio
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Correspondence to R. Ravanelli.

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Ravanelli, R., Riguzzi, F., Anzidei, M. et al. Sea level rise scenario for 2100 A.D. for the archaeological site of Motya. Rend. Fis. Acc. Lincei 30, 747–757 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12210-019-00835-3

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