Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Numerical Simulation and Risk Analysis of Coastal Inundation in Land Reclamation Areas: A Case Study of the Pearl River Estuary

  • Published:
Journal of Ocean University of China Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models to simulate 43 inundation events from 1998 to 2018. A combined wind-pressure field derived from the assimilation wind-pressure model was used to drive the coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model. On the basis of the model results, a sensitivity study of the influence of land reclamation on coastal inundation was conducted. The results of the study showed that coastline changes caused by reclamation significantly influence the distribution of coastal inundation, particularly in areas where narrow waterways, bays, and peninsulas are newly formed. Combining the extreme inundation events calculated using the Gumbel and Weibull distributions, the 10-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year return coastal inundations were obtained for the Pearl River Estuary in China. The risk of coastal inundation was analyzed according to the probability of the inundation depth exceeding 1 m. A hazard grade zoning map was drawn to guide disaster relief and mitigation in the reclamation area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bhaskaran, P. K., Gayathri, R., Murty, P. L. N., Bonthu, S. R., and Sen, D., 2014. A numerical study of coastal inundation and its validation for thane cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. Coastal Engineering, 83: 108–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilskie, M. V, Hagen, S. C., Alizad, K., Medeiros, S. C., Passeri, D. L., Needham, H. F., and Cox, A., 2016a. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Earth’s Future, 4(5): 177–193.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilskie, M. V, Hagen, S. C., Medeiros, S. C., Cox, A. T., Salisbury, M., and Coggin, D., 2016b. Data and numerical analysis of astronomic tides, wind-waves, and hurricane storm surge along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121(5): 3625–3658.

    Google Scholar 

  • Booij, N., Ris, R., and Holthuijsen, L., 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1: Model description and validation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104: 7649–7666.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carr, L. E., and Elsberry, R. L., 1997. Models of tropical cyclone wind distribution and beta-effect propagation for application to tropical cyclone track forecasting. Monthly Weather Review, 125(12): 3190–3209.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choi, B. H., Min, B. I., Kim, K. O., and Yuk, J. H., 2013. Wavetide-surge coupled simulation for Typhoon Maemi. China Ocean Engineering, 27(2): 141–158.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietrich, J. C., Bunya, S., Westerink, J. J., Ebersole, B. A., Smith, J. M., Atkinson, J. H., Resio, D. T., Luettich, R. A., Dawson, C., Cardone, V. J., Cox, A. T., Powell, M. D., Westerink, H. J., and Roberts, H. J., 2010. A high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part II: Synoptic description and analysis of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Monthly Weather Review, 138(2): 378–404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding, Y., and Wei, H., 2016. Modeling the impact of land reclamation on storm surges in Bohai Sea, China. Natural Hazards, 85: 1–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feng, X., Yin, B., and Yang, D., 2012. Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China. Estuarine Coastal & Shelf Science, 106: 58–68.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng, X., Yin, B., Yang, D., and William, P., 2011. The effect of wave-induced radiation stress on storm surge during Typhoon Saomai (2006). Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 30(3): 20–26.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J., 2013. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change, 3(9): 802–806.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holland, G., 1980. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108(8): 1212–1218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, J. E., and Davies, A. M., 2009. Storm surge computations in estuarine and near-coastal regions: The Mersey estuary and Irish Sea area. Ocean Dynamics, 59(6): 1061–1076.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang, L., Ma, L., and Liu, Y., 2016. Evaluation of farmland losses from sea level rise and storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region under global climate change. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(4): 439–456.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kerr, P., Martyr, R., Donahue, A., Hope, M. E., Westerink, J. J., Luettich, R. A., Kennedy, A. B., Dietrich, J. C., Dawson, C., and Westerink, H. J., 2013. US IOOS coastal and ocean modeling testbed: Evaluation of tide, wave, and hurricane surge response sensitivities to mesh resolution and friction in the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118(9): 4633–4661.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, X., and Damen, M. C., 2010. Coastline change detection with satellite remote sensing for environmental management of the Pearl River Estuary, China. Journal of Marine Systems, 82: S54–S61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin, N., Emanuel, K. A., Smith, J. A., and Vanmarcke, E., 2010. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115(D18): D18121.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin, N., Smith, J. A., Villarini, G., Marchok, T. P., and Baeck, M. L., 2009. Modeling extreme rainfall, winds, and surge from hurricane Isabel (2003). Weather & Forecasting, 25(5): 1342–1361.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luettich, R., and Westerink, J., 2007. A parallel advanced circulation model for oceanic coastal and estuarine waters. Technical report, available at http://www.adcirc.org.

  • Passeri, D. L., Hagen, S. C., Bilskie, M. V., and Medeiros, S. C., 2015. On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios. Natural Hazards, 75(2): 1599–1617.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ris, R., Booij, N., and Holthuijsen, L., 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, 2. Verification. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104: 7667–7681.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha, S., et al., 2010. NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) selected hourly time-series products. Research data archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6513W89.

  • Saha, S., et al., 2011. NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Selected Hourly Time-Series Products. Research data archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6N877VB.

  • Shen, Y., Jia, H., Li, C., and Tang, J., 2018. Numerical simulation of saltwater intrusion and storm surge effects of reclamation in Pearl River Estuary, China. Applied Ocean Research, 79: 101–112.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheng, Y. P., Zhang, Y., and Paramygin, V. A., 2010. Simulation of storm surge, wave, and coastal inundation in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico region during Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Ocean Modelling, 35(4): 314–331.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, S. M., 2005. Spatial and temporal variability of shoreline change in the Beaufort-Mackenzie region, Northwest Territories, Canada. Geo-Marine Letters, 25(2–3): 127–137.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suh, S. W., Lee, H. Y., and Kim, H. J., 2014. Spatio-temporal variability of tidal asymmetry due to multiple coastal constructions along the west coast of Korea. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science, 151: 336–346.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tomiczek, T., Kennedy, A., Zhang, Y., Owensby, M., Hope, M. E., Lin, N., and Flory, A., 2017. Hurricane damage classification methodology and fragility functions derived from Hurricane Sandy’s effects in coastal New Jersey. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 143(5): 04017027.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, X. Z., Zhang, H. G., Fu, B., and Shi, A., 2013. Analysis on the coastline change and erosion-accretion evolution of the Pearl River Estuary, China, based on remote-sensing images and nautical charts. Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, 7(1): 073519.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Y., Mao, X., and Jiang, W., 2018. Long-term hazard analysis of destructive storm surges using the Adcirc-Swan model: A case study of Bohai Sea, China. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 73: 52–62.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weng, Q., 2002. Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing, GIS and Stochastic Modelling. Journal of Environmental Management, 64(3): 273–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westerink, J. J., Luettich, R. A., Blain, C. A., and Scheffner, N. W., 2006. ADCIRC: An advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves, coasts, and estuaries. Report 2: User’s manual for ADCIRC-2DDI. Journal of Geology, 76(6): 721–723.

    Google Scholar 

  • Willoughby, H. E., and Rahn, M. E., 2004. Parametric representation of the primary hurricane vortex. Part I: Observations and evaluation of the Holland (1980) Model. Monthly Weather Review, 132(12): 3033–3048.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, Y., Li, X., Ma, Y., and Bao, Y., 2015. Numerical simulation and statistical analysis of typhoon storm surge in coastal area of Shandong Province. Journal of Natural Disasters, 24(3): 169–176 (in Chinese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  • Yin, J., Lin, N., and Yu, D., 2016. Coupled modeling of storm surge and coastal inundation: A case study in New York City during Hurricane Sandy. Water Resources Research, 52: 8685–8699.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ying, M., Zhang, W., Yu, H., Lu, X., Feng, J., Fan, Y., Zhu, Y., and Chen, D., 2014. An overview of the china meteorological administration tropical cyclone database. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 31(2): 287–301, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00119.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, X., Pan, D., Chen, J., Zhao, J., Zhu, Q., and Huang, H., 2014a. Evaluation of coastline changes under human intervention using multi-temporal high-resolution images: A case study of the Zhoushan Islands, China. Remote Sensing, 6(10): 9930–9950.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Li, X., Ma, Y., and Bao, Y., 2014b. Analyzing shoreline changes of the Pearl River Estuary based on remote sensing. Hydrographic Surveying and Charting, 34(3): 52–55 (in Chinese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Data listed in Section 2 are available from the public platforms. The authors are thankful to those public platforms for providing the data. This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC1402000). The numerical work is supported by the High-Performance Computing Center, Institution of Oceanology, CAS.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Mei Du, Yijun Hou, Yunxia Guo & Kai Wang

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Mei Du, Yijun Hou, Yunxia Guo & Kai Wang

  3. Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China

    Yijun Hou

  4. Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, China

    Mei Du, Yijun Hou, Yunxia Guo & Kai Wang

Authors
  1. Mei Du
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yijun Hou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yunxia Guo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kai Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yijun Hou.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Du, M., Hou, Y., Guo, Y. et al. Numerical Simulation and Risk Analysis of Coastal Inundation in Land Reclamation Areas: A Case Study of the Pearl River Estuary. J. Ocean Univ. China 19, 1221–1234 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-020-4426-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-020-4426-0

Key words

Search

Navigation