Abstract
This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Düzlerçamı (Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change. This was done to produce data, to develop tools to support decision-making and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change, and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change. Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators, both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier, hotter, more continental and more water-deficient climate. This analysis holds true for all future scenarios, with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030. However, the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site, characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation, will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation, climate change and variability.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (FAO) and the Turkish General Directorate of Forestry for their support. Special thanks should be given to Dr. Valentina Garavaglia of FAO for her professional guidance and valuable support and to Dr. Neşat Erkan for his useful and constructive recommendations on this study.
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Project Funding: This work was supported by the French Global Environment Facility (FFEM) Project (GCP/GLO/458/FRA).
The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com
Corresponding editor: Hu Yanbo.
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Türkeş, M., Musaoğlu, N. & Özcan, O. Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey: future evaluation. J. For. Res. 29, 1177–1186 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-017-0500-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-017-0500-x