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Not by Bread Alone: Estimating Potato Demand in India in 2030

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Abstract

While much of the literature on future food consumption in India in the decades ahead focuses on cereals, this paper presents estimates of potato demand to the year 2030 according to three different scenarios. Estimated increases in total food demand for potato range from 20 to 30 million metric tonnes and from 5.5 to 15 kg capita−1 year−1, with modest, if any, increases in foreign trade. These estimates highlight the potato’s growing importance in Indian diets as food consumption patterns continue to evolve while maintaining their traditional roots. They also call for a series of public and private initiatives to facilitate the realization of the potato’s potential future contribution to food consumption and nutrition in India. These include renewed support for research and development as relates to improved technologies for the potato sector both on and off the farm. It also involves opportunities for industry to combine market-driven innovations to achieve commercial success with benefits for growers, consumers and the environment as well.

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Notes

  1. Whereas per capita availability at the national level is a rough and ready approximation of per capita consumption, the figures for the state level mentioned here must be considered with greater caution because they are annualized totals based on monthly estimates to allow for comparison with national figures and due to the absence of statistics for trade between states within national borders.

  2. See Scott et al. (2019) for information about how specific technology assumptions are modelled for each scenario and lead to the food supply estimates that complement the food demand figures presented here.

  3. The final values of the potato income elasticities for the three scenarios, together with those for wheat and rice are illustrated in Appendix Table 11

  4. See Robinson et al. (2015) for more information about how DSSAT is linked with IMPACT.

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Acknowledgements

This study was undertaken as part of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project (GFSF) of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM).

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Funding support was provided by the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM). The opinions expressed here belong to the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of PIM or the CGIAR.

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  1. CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School, Lima, Peru

    Gregory J. Scott

  2. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú, Lima, Peru

    Gregory J. Scott

  3. Social and Nutrition Sciences Division, International Potato Center, Lima, Peru

    Athanasios Petsakos & Victor Suarez

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Appendix

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Table 11 Income elasticities of demand used for this study
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Scott, G.J., Petsakos, A. & Suarez, V. Not by Bread Alone: Estimating Potato Demand in India in 2030. Potato Res. 62, 281–304 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-019-9411-x

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