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The risk of forfeiting the ranges of reptiles under nonrandom and stochastic scenarios of moving climate conditions: a case study for 115 species in China

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Abstract

Revealing the hazard features of forfeiting areal ranges for nonidentical scenarios of shifting climatic conditions is pivotal for the conformation of reptiles to climatic warming. Taking 115 reptiles in China as an example, the indefiniteness and danger of shrinking geographical range for the reptiles under stochastic and nonrandom scenarios of moving climatic situations were inspected via exploiting the scenarios of shifting climatic status associated with the representative concentration pathways, Monte Carlo simulation, and the classifications scheme based on the fuzzy set. For non-stochastic states of altering climatic elements, the richness of 115 reptiles improved in certain sites of northeastern, and western China and dropped in several areas of northern, eastern, central China, and southeastern China: roughly 59–74 reptiles forfeiting less than 20% of their present ranges, roughly 25–34 reptiles narrowing less than 20–40% of their present areal ranges, and roughly 105–111 reptiles inhabited more than 80% of their overall areal ranges. For the random status of shifting climatic elements, the count of reptiles that forfeited the various extent of the present or entire areal ranges descended with raising the eventuality; with a possibility of over 0.6, the count of reptiles that minified less than 20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80% and over 80% of the present ranges was roughly 28–49, 5–10, 1–3, 0–1 and 13–18, separately; the count of reptiles that inhabited below 20%, 20–40%, 40–60%, 60–80% and more than 80% of the entire real ranges was roughly 0–1, 5–6, 1–5, 0–2 and 35–36, separately. About 30% of 115 reptiles would face disappearance danger in response to moving climate conditions in the absence of adaption steps, and the conformation measures were indispensable for the reptiles that shrunk their areas.

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Data availability

The herbarium of amphibians and reptiles in China (Museum of Herpetology, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences), China animal database (http://www.zoology.csdb.cn), China reptile database (http://www.reptiledatabase.org), the reptile atlases of China, local and regional censuring data of the reptiles were all as the data sources (See ESM_3). Climate data supplied by the Climate Center of the Chinese Administration of Meteorology.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Special Project [2019FY101606] and the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2012BAC19B06). Many thanks were given to instructive comments from anonymous reviewers greatly improved this manuscript. Many thanks were also given to Pr. Shaohong Wu, Dr. Tao Pan, and Dr. Jie Pan for providing some climate data.

Funding

This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Special Project [2019FY101606] and the National Science and Technology Support Program of China (2012BAC19B06).

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    Jianguo Wu

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Wu, J. The risk of forfeiting the ranges of reptiles under nonrandom and stochastic scenarios of moving climate conditions: a case study for 115 species in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 51511–51529 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14247-0

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