Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change challenges water managers and researchers to find sustainable management solutions, in order to avoid undesirable impacts on water resources, environment and water-dependent sectors. Needed are projections into the future for the main driving forces, the resulting pressures on water resources, and quantification of the impacts. Modeling studies can play an important role in investigating, quantifying, and communicating possible impacts of climate change, with account of uncertainty of the results. However, climate change related impacts and a need for adaptation still play a minor role in current river basin management plans that have to comply e.g. with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). One important reason is that climate impact assessment is generally done in research institutes, while management plans are designed by practitioners working in national and regional environmental agencies and water supply companies. Knowledge transfer from science to practice and visa versa is often missing. In the present study, we propose a methodology and a case study for model-supported decision making in the water sector applicable to a participatory water resources planning process. The methodology is applied in a case study investigating climate change impacts on water resources. The case study area is the German State of Saxony-Anhalt, where the task was to develop a climate change impact assessment including possible adaptation measures as basis for a federal adaptation directive.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnell NW (1999) The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe: a continental perspective. Global Environ Chang: Human and Policy Dimensions 9(1):5–23

    Google Scholar 

  • ATV-DVWK Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, A.u.A.e.V. (2000) Die Elbe und ihre Nebenflüsse. Belastung und Trends, Bewertung, Perspektiven. Hennef

  • Becker A, Soncini-Sessa R, Castelletti A, Hattermann FF, Willems P, Stålnacke P, Laurans Y, de Lange WI (2010) How can models help implementing the water framework directive? In: Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW (eds) Water framework directive: model supported implementation—a water manager’s guide. IWA, London, pp 11–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Bronstert A (2004) Rainfall-runoff modelling for assessing impacts of climate and land-use change. Hydrol Process 18(3):567–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eisenreich SJ (2005) Climate change and the European water dimension. European Commission–Joint Research Centre, Ispra

    Google Scholar 

  • Enke W, Deutschländer Th, Schneider F (2005a) Results of five regional climate studies applying a weather pattern based downscaling method to ECHAM4 climate simulations. Meteorol Z 14:247–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enke W, Schneider F, Deutschländer Th (2005b) A novel scheme to derive optimised circulation pattern classifications for downscaling and forecast purposes. Theor Appl Climatol 82:51–63. doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0116-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • EC (2000) Establishing a framework for community action in the field of water policy. Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000, Official Journal of the European Communities, Brussels, Belgium

  • EC (2007) Assessment and management of flood risks. Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 26 November 2007, Official Journal of the European Communities, Brussels, Belgium

  • Gerstengarbe FW, Werner PC (2005) Simulationsergebnisse des regionalen Klimamodells STAR. In: Wechsung F, Becker A, Gräfe P (eds) Integrierte Analyse der Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels auf Wasser, Umwelt und Gesellschaft im Elbegebiet, PIK-Report 95. ISSN 1436–0179

  • Gooch G, Stålnacke P (eds) (2010) Science, policy and stakeholders in water management—an integrated approach to river basin management. Earthscan, London, p 192. ISBN 9781844079193

    Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW (eds) (2010) Water framework directive: model supported implementation - a water manager’s guide. IWA, London, p 282

    Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Wechsung F, Wattenbach M (2004) Integrating groundwater dynamics in regional hydrological modelling. Environ Model Softw 19(11):1039–1051

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann FF, Wattenbach M, Krysanova V, Wechsung F (2005) Runoff simulations on the macroscale with the ecohydrological model SWIM in the Elbe catchment—validation and uncertainty analysis. Hydrol Process (19):693–714

  • Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Habeck A, Bronstert A (2006) Integrating wetlands and riparian zones in river basin modeling. Ecol Model 199:379–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann FF, Gömann H, Conradt T, Kaltofen M, Kreins P, Wechsung F (2007) Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin—part 1: project framework and impacts on agriculture. Adv Geosci 11:85–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Post J, Dworak Th, Leipprand A, Kadner S, Kabat P (2008a) Understanding consequences of Climate Change. In: The adaptiveness of IWRM, an analysis of European IWRM research, IWA, London, pp 89–112

    Google Scholar 

  • Hattermann FF, Post J, Krysanova V, Conradt T, Wechsung F (2008b) Assessment of water availability in a Central-European River Basin (Elbe) under climate change. Adv Clim Change Res 4:42–50

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang S, Krysanova V, Österle H, Hattermann FF (2010) Simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of water fluxes in Germany under climate change. Hydrol Process 24(23):3289–3306

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2000) IPCC special report on emission scenarios—summary for policymakers. A special report of IPCCWorking Group III. Intergovernmental panel on climate change. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf

  • IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis—summary for policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat

  • IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability—summary for policymakers. Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat

  • Kabat P, Schulze RE, Hellmuth ME, Veraart JA (eds) (2002) Coping with impacts of climate variability and climate change in water management: a scooping paper. DWC-Report no. DWCSSO-01(2002), International Secretariat of the Dialogue on Water and Climate, Wageningen

  • Krysanova V, Muller-Wohlfeil D-I, Becker A (1998) Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol Model 106(2–3), 261–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krysanova V, Kundzewicz ZW, Pińskwar I, Habeck A (2006) Regional socio-economic and environmental changes and their impacts on water resources on example of Odra and Elbe basins. Water Resour Manag 20(4):607–641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Schellnhuber HJ (2004) Floods in the IPCC TAR perspective. Nat Hazards 31(1):111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Budhakooncharoen S, Bronstert A, Hoff H, Lettenmaier D, Menzel L, Schulze R (2002) Coping with variability and change: floods and droughts. Nat Resour Forum 26:263–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell N, Döll P, Kabat P, Jiménez B, Miller K, Oki T, Şen Z, Shiklomanov I (2007) Freshwater resources and their management. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Hanson CE, van der Linden PJ (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA; http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter3.pdf

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Mata LJ, Arnell N, Döll P, Jiménez B, Miller K, Oki T, Şen Z, Shiklomanov I (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol Sci J 53(1):3–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehner B, Heinrichs T, Döll P, Alcamo J (2001) EuroWasser—model-based assessment of European water resources and hydrology in the face of global change. Kassel World Water Series 5, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany

  • Lehner B, Döll P, Alcamo J, Henrichs T, Kaspar F (2006) Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated analysis. Clim Change 75(3): 273–299

    Google Scholar 

  • Leipprand A, Dworak T, Benzie M, Berglund M, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Post J, Kadner S (2008) Impacts of climate change on water resources—adaptation strategies for Europe. Commissioned by the German Federal Environment Agency. http://www.climate-water-adaptation-berlin2007.org/documents/Climate_water_report_final_for_website.pdf

  • Loucks DP, Van Beck E (2005) Water resources systems planning and management. An introduction to methods, models and applications. UNESCO, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Menzel L, Bürger G (2002) Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). J Hydrol 267(1–2):53–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nash IE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models. J Hydrol 10:282–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orlowsky B, Gerstengarbe F-W, Werner PC (2008) A resampling scheme for regional climate simulations and its performance compared to a dynamical RCM. Theor Appl Climatol 92:3–4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pahl-Wostl C (2002) Towards sustainability in the water sector: the importance of human actors and processes of social learning. Aquat Sci 64:394–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pahl-Wostl C (2010) The role of participation, social learning and adaptation in complex systems. In: Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW (eds) Water framework directive: model supported implementation - a water manager’s guide. IWA, London, pp 87–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Pahl-Wostl C, Craps M, Dewulf A, Mostert E, Tabara D, Taillieu T (2007) Social learning and water resources management. Ecol Soc 12(2):5. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss2/art5/

    Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Bengtsson L, Feichter J, Lelieveld J, Rodhe H (1999) Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle. J Climate 12(10):3004–3032

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roeckner E, Bäuml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner I, Manzini LKE, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM 5. Part I: model description. Tech Rep, MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

  • Sachsen-Anhalt (2010) Strategie des Landes zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel zusammen mit dem dazugehörigen Aktionsplan. Arbeitsgruppe des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt zum Klimawandel. Magdeburg. http://www.sachsen-anhalt.de/fileadmin/Elementbibliothek/Master-Bibliothek/Landwirtschaft_und_Umwelt/K/Klimaschutz/Klimawandel/LSA_Anpassungsstrategie_2010_04_14.pdf

  • Soncini-Sessa R, Castelletti A, Weber E (2007a) Integrated and participatory water resources management: theory. Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Soncini-Sessa R, Cellina F, Pianosi F, Weber E (2007b) Integrated and participatory water resources management: practice. Elsevier, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Stanners D, Bourdeau P (1995) Europe’s environment: the Dobríš assessment. European Environment Agency, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg

    Google Scholar 

  • Tomassini L, Jacob D (2009) Spatial analysis of trends in extreme precipitation events in high-resolution climate model results and observations for Germany. J Geophys Res 114:D12113

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Varis O, Kajander T, Lemmelä R (2004) Climate change and water: from climate models to water resources management and vice versa. Clim Change 66:321–344

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wechsung F, Kaden S, Behrendt H, Klöcking B (eds) (2008) Integrated analysis of the impacts of global change on environment and society in the Elbe basin. Weißensee, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Wenzel V (1999) Ein integrativer Algorithmus zur Unterstützung regionaler Landnutzungsentscheidungen. Flusseinzugsgebietsmanagement und Sozioökonomie, UFZ–Bericht 30, Umweltforschungszentrum Leipzig–Halle GmbH, Leipzig

  • Wenzel V (2008) The integrated methodological approach in a stringent language calculus. In: Wechsung F, Kaden S, Behrendt H, Klöcking B (eds) Integrated analysis of the impacts of global change on environment and society in the Elbe basin. Weißensee, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Hay LE, Leavesley GH (1999) A comparison of downscaled and raw GCM output: implications for climate change scenarios in the San Juan River basin, Colorado. J Hydrol 225(1–2):67–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Willems P, de Lange WJ (2007) Concept of technical support to science-policy interfacing with respect to the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive. Environ Sci Policy 10:464–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood AW, Leung LR, Sridhar V, Lettenmaier DP (2004) Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Change 62:189–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Fred Fokko Hattermann, Shaochun Huang, Valentina Krysanova & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

  2. Saxony-Anhalt State Agency for Flood Control and Water Management, Otto-von-Guericke-Str. 5, 39104, Magdeburg, Germany

    Mathias Weiland

  3. Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań, Poland

    Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Authors
  1. Fred Fokko Hattermann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mathias Weiland
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Shaochun Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Valentina Krysanova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fred Fokko Hattermann.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hattermann, F.F., Weiland, M., Huang, S. et al. Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study. Water Resour Manage 25, 3113–3134 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9848-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-011-9848-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation