Abstract
Determining the dynamics associated with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks is important for being able to develop effective strategic plans against the disease. In this direction, spatiotemporal analysis of FMD virus (FMDV) epidemic data that occurred in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019 was carried out. Spatiotemporal analysis was performed by the space-time scan statistic using data from a total of 7,796 FMD outbreaks. Standard deviational ellipse analysis (SDE) was performed to analyse the directional trend of FMD. Five, six, and three significant and high-risk clusters were identified by the space-time cluster analysis for serotypes A, O, and Asia-1, respectively. The SDE analysis indicated that direction of FMD transmission was northeast to southwest. A significant decrease in the number of outbreaks and cases were observed between 2014 and 2019 compared to 2010–2013 (p = 0.010). Most of the serotype A, serotype O, and serotype Asia-1 associated FMD outbreaks were observed during the dry season (April to September). Among FMD cases, cattle and small ruminants accounted for 80.75% (180,932 cases) and 19.25% (43,116 cases), respectively. Among the serotypes detected in the cases, the most frequently detected serotype was serotype O (50.84%), followed by serotypes A (35.67%) and Asia-1 (13.49%). The results obtained in this study may contribute to when and where control programs could be implemented more efficiently for the prevention and control of FMD. Developing risk-defined regional control plans by taking into account the current livestock production including uncontrolled animal movements in border regions, rural livestock, livestock trade between provinces are recommended.
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This study was conducted with permission number 71037622-280.05-E.3725854 from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. The study has received no support from any organization. The authors would like to thank the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry employees for their cooperation.
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Study concept and design: Ömer Barış İnce, Murat Şevik, Rümeysa Şener, Tarık Türk; Data editing: Ömer Barış İnce, Murat Şevik; Statistical analysis: Ömer Barış İnce, Murat Şevik, Rümeysa Şener, Tarık Türk; Analysis and interpretation of the data: Murat Şevik, Rümeysa Şener, Tarık Türk; Drafting of the manuscript: Murat Şevik, Rümeysa Şener; Review & editing: All authors.
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İnce, Ö.B., Şevik, M., Şener, R. et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle and small ruminants in Türkiye between 2010 and 2019. Vet Res Commun 48, 923–939 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11259-023-10269-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11259-023-10269-w