Lags and Hysteresis Loops of Cosmic Ray Intensity Versus Sunspot Numbers: Quantitative Estimates for Cycles 19 – 23 and a Preliminary Indication for Cycle 24

Abstract

Hysteresis plots between cosmic-ray (CR) intensity (recorded at the Climax station) and sunspot relative number R _Z show broad loops in odd cycles (19, 21, and 23) and narrow loops in even cycles (20 and 22). However, in the even cycles, the loops are not narrow throughout the whole cycle; around the sunspot-maximum period, a broad loop is seen. Only in the rising and declining phases, the loops are narrow in even cycles. The CR modulation is known to have a delay with respect to R _Z, and the delay was believed to be longer in odd cycles (19, 21, and 23; about 10 months) than the delay in even cycles (20 and 22; about 3 – 5 months). When this was reexamined, it was found that the delays are different during the sunspot-minimum periods (2, 6, and 14 months for odd cycles and 7 and 9 months for even cycles) and sunspot-maximum periods (0, 4, and 7 months for odd cycles and 5 and 8 months for even cycles). Thus, the differences between odd and even cycles are not significant throughout the whole cycle. In the recent even cycle 24, hysteresis plots show a preliminary broadening near the sunspot maximum, which occurred recently (February 2012). The CR level (recorded at Newark station) is still high in 2013, indicating a long lag (exceeding 10 months) with respect to the sunspot maximum.