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Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum

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Abstract

We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F 10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate F 10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F 10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m−2 lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, National Research Council, P.O. Box 248, Penticton, BC, V2A 6J9, Canada

    K. F. Tapping

  2. Geomagnetics Laboratory, Natural Resources Canada, 2617 Anderson Road, Ottawa, ON, K2A 0Y3, Canada

    D. Boteler

  3. Département de Physique, Université of Montréal, P.O. Box 6128, Montréal, QC, H3C 3J7, Canada

    P. Charbonneau, A. Crouch & H. Paquette

  4. Institute for Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5E2, Canada

    A. Manson

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  1. K. F. Tapping
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  2. D. Boteler
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  3. P. Charbonneau
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  4. A. Crouch
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  5. A. Manson
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  6. H. Paquette
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Correspondence to K. F. Tapping.

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Tapping, K.F., Boteler, D., Charbonneau, P. et al. Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum. Sol Phys 246, 309–326 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-007-9047-x

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