Abstract
Having a new technology opportunity is a significant variable that can lead to dominance in a competitive market. In that context, accurately understanding the state of development of technology convergence and forecasting promising technology convergence can determine the success of a firm. However, previous studies have mainly focused on examining the convergence paths taken in the past or the current state of convergence rather than projecting the future trends of convergence. In addition, few studies have dealt with multi-technology convergence by taking a pairwise-analysis approach. Therefore, this research aimed to propose a forecasting methodology for multi-technology convergence, which is more realistic than pairwise convergence, based on a patent-citation analysis, a dependency-structure matrix, and a neural-network analysis. The suggested methodology enables both researchers and practitioners in the convergence field to plan their technology development by forecasting the technology combination that will occur in the future.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Austin, S., Baldwin, A., Li, B., & Waskett, P. (2000). Analytical design planning technique (ADePT): A dependency structure matrix tool to schedule the building design process. Construction Management Economics, 18, 173–182.
Bengisu, M., & Nekhili, R. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies with aid of science and technology database. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(7), 835–844.
Blackman, M. (1995). Provision of patent information: A national patent office perspective. World Patent Information, 17(2), 115–123.
Cho, Y., & Kim, M. (2014). Entropy and gravity concepts as new methodological indexes to investigate technological convergence: Patent network-based approach. PLoS ONE, 9(6), 1–17.
Choi, J., & Hwang, Y. (2014). Patent keyword network analysis for improving technology development efficiency. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 83, 170–182.
Danilovic, M., & Browning, T. R. (2007). Managing complex product development projects with design structure matrices and domain mapping matrices. International Journal of Project Management, 25, 300–314.
Duguet, E., & MacGarvie, M. (2005). How well do patent citations measure flows of technology? Evidence from French innovation surveys. Economics of Innovation and New Technologies, 14(5), 375–393.
Eppinger, S. D., & Browning, T. R. (2012). Design structure matrix method and applications. Cambridge: The MIT press.
Érdi, P., Makovi, K., Somogyvári, Z., Strandburg, K., Tobochnik, J., Volf, P., et al. (2013). Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network. Scientometrics, 95, 225–242.
Ernst, H. (1998). Patent portfolios for strategic R&D planning. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 15(4), 279–308.
Ernst, H. (2003). Patent information for strategic technology management. World Patent Informations, 25(3), 233–242.
Fleming, L., King, C., III, & Juda, A. I. (2007). Small worlds and regional innovation. Informs, 18(6), 938–954.
Gauch, S., & Blind, K. (2015). Technological convergence and the absorptive capacity of standardization. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 91, 236–249.
Geum, Y., Kim, C., Lee, S., & Kim, M. (2012). Technological convergence of IT and BT: Evidence from patent analysis. ETRI Journal, 34(3), 439–449.
Gomes-Casseres, B., Hagedoorn, J., & Jaffe, A. B. (2006). Do alliances promote knowledge flows? Journal of Financial Economics, 80(1), 5–33.
Gutierrez, R. S., Solis, A. O., & Mukhopadhyay, S. (2008). Lumpy demand forecasting using neural networks. International Journal of Production Economics, 111(2), 409–420.
Hacklin, F., Marxt, C., & Fahrni, F. (2009). Coevolutionary cycles of convergence: An extrapolation from the ICT industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76, 723–736.
Henderson, R., Jaffe, A. B., & Trajtenberg, M. (1998). Universities as a source of commercial technology: A detailed analysis of university patenting 1965–1988. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 119–127.
Jaffe, A. B., Trajtenberg, M., & Fogarty, M. S. (2000). Knowledge spillovers and patent citations: Evidence from a survey of inventors. The American Economic Review, 90(2), 215–218.
Jeong, D. H., & Kwon, Y. (2014). Analysis on convergence in green technology field using patent information. Applied Mechanics and Materials, 548–549, 1981–1993.
Ju, Y., & Sohn, Y. (2015). Patent-based QFD framework development for identification of emerging technologies and related business models: A case of robot technology in Korea. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 94, 44–64.
Karvonen, M., & Kässi, T. (2013). Patent citations as a tool for analyzing the early stages of convergence. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(6), 1094–1107.
Kim, E., Cho, E. Y., & Kim, W. (2014). Dynamic patterns of technological convergence in printed electronics technologies: Patent citation network. Scientometrics, 98(2), 975–998.
Kim, J., & Lee, S. (2015). Patent databases for innovation studies: A comparative analysis of USPTO, EPO, JPO and KIPO. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 92, 332–345.
Kim, M., & Kim, C. (2012). On a patent analysis method for technological convergence. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 40, 657–663.
Ko, N., Yoon, J., & Seo, W. (2014). Analyzing interdisciplinarity of technology fusion using knowledge flows of patents. Expert Systems with Applications, 41, 1955–1963.
Kwon, Y., & Jeong, D. (2014). Technology relevance analysis between wind power energy-fuel cell-green car using network analysis, IPC map. Collnet Journal of Scientometrics and Information Management, 8(1), 109–121.
Lai, Y., & Che, H. (2009). Modeling patent legal value by extension neural network. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(7), 10520–10528.
Lee, C., Cho, Y., Seol, H., & Park, Y. (2012). A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(1), 16–29.
Lee, D., & Yoo, C. (2014). Predicting a promising fusion technology in geoscience and mineral resources engineering using Korean patent data. Geosystem Engineering, 17(1), 34–42.
Lind, J. (2004). Convergence: History of term usage and lessons for firm strategists. In Proceedings of ITS 15th biennial conference, Berlin, Germany, International Telecommunications Society.
MacGarvie, M. (2005). The determinants of international knowledge diffusion as measured by patent citations. Economics Letters, 87(1), 121–126.
Mitrea, C. A. C., Lee, K. M., & Wu, Z. (2009). A comparison between neural networks and traditional forecasting methods: A case study. International Journal of Engineering Business Management, 1(2), 19–24.
No, H. J., & Lim, H. (2009). Exploration of nanobiotechnologies using patent data. Journal of Intellectual Property, 4(3), 109–129.
No, H. J., & Park, Y. (2010). Trajectory patterns of technology fusion: Trend analysis and taxonomical grouping in nanobiotechnology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7(1), 63–75.
Rizzi, F., Annunziata, E., Liberati, G., & Frey, M. (2014). Technological trajectories in the automotive industry: Are hydrogen technologies still a possibility? Journal of Cleaner Production, 66, 328–336.
Sangal, N., Jordan, E., Sinha, V., & Jacson, D. (2005). Using dependency models to manage complex software architecture. In OOPSLA ‘05 Proceedings of the 20th annual ACM SIGPLAN conference on object-oriented programming, systems, languages, and applications, pp 167–176.
Sharda, R. (1994). Neural networks for the MS/OR analyst: An application bibliography. Interfaces, 24(2), 116–130.
Trajtenberg, M. (1990). A penny for your quotes: Patent citations and the value of inventions. RAND Journal ofEconomics, 21(1), 172–187.
Trappey, C. V., Wu, H., Taghaboni-Dutta, F., & Trappey, A. J. C. (2011). Using patent data for technology forecasting: China RFID patent analysis. Advanced Engineering Informatics, 25(1), 53–64.
Wu, C., & Leu, H. (2014). Examining the trends of technological development in hydrogen energy using patent co-word map analysis. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 39(33), 19262–19269.
Xing, W., Ye, X., & Kui, L. (2011). Measuring convergence of China’s ICT industry: An input–output analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 35, 301–313.
You, Y., Kim, B., & Jeoung, E. (2014). An exploratory study on the development path of converging technologies using patent analysis: The case of nano biosensors. Asian Journal of Technological Innovation, 22(1), 100–113.
Zang, X., & Niu, Y. (2011). The forecast model of patents granted in colleges based on genetic neural network. In Proceedings of electrical and control engineering (ICECE), international conference, Yichang, China, pp 5090–5093.
Zhang, S., Yuan, C., Chang, K., & Kenb, Y. (2012). Exploring the nonlinear effects of patent H index, patent citations, and essential technological strength on corporate performance by using artificial neural network. Journal of Informetrics, 6(4), 485–495.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) Grant funded by the Korea government (MSIP) (NRF-2013R1A2A2A03016904) and also by the BK21 Plus Program (Center for Sustainable and Innovative Industrial Systems, Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University) funded by the Ministry of Education, Korea (No. 21A20130012638).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kim, J., Lee, S. Forecasting and identifying multi-technology convergence based on patent data: the case of IT and BT industries in 2020. Scientometrics 111, 47–65 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2275-4
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-017-2275-4
Keywords
- Technology convergence
- Forecasting
- Patent-citation analysis
- Neural-network analysis
- Dependency-structure matrix