Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Post-disaster fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the changing racial composition of New Orleans

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Population and Environment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences—beyond migration-driven population change—generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster’s wake.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. It is important to note that the Census Bureau’s intercensal population estimates for Orleans Parish during 2006 are slightly higher than rapid population estimates generated by both the City of New Orleans Emergency Operations Center and the Rand Corporation (VanLandingham 2007). This might also be the case for other parishes that compose the New Orleans MSA, although no competing population estimates exist to the authors’ knowledge. The revised intercensal population estimates for Orleans Parish in July 2006 were 230,172 (US Census Bureau 2013), while the City of New Orleans Emergency Operations Center estimates were 181,400 at the end of January 2006 (Stone et al. 2007; Emergency Operations Center City of New Orleans 2006) and the Rand Corporation estimates were 198,019 in September 2006 (McCarthy et al. 2006). Our usage of the Census Bureau’s intercensal population estimates for 2006 likely overestimates the population size of the New Orleans MSA for this year, which, consequently, probably decreases our total fertility rate estimates. However, the intercensal estimates are the only source of population estimates that enumerate the post-Katrina population across five-year age groups stratified by sex and racial/ethnic identification – a prerequisite for calculating race-specific total fertility rates.

  2. MSA coding describes coterminous counties that have an urbanized core population of 50,000+ and share economic, social, and cultural ties. We use 2013 OMB codes for the full period of study.

  3. The TFR also has a synthetic cohort interpretation: the average number of births per woman that would be observed if a cohort of women survived to age 49 and experienced the period age-specific fertility rates in each age interval between 15 and 49. Our focus is on period fertility, period birth cohort size, and how both are changed by the disruption of Katrina. It is less heuristically useful to conceptualize period TFR values as being relevant to particular cohorts of women in New Orleans. The short-run population implications for New Orleans are related to, but distinct, from the question of whether women’s completed fertility by age 50 shifts. It may be, for example, that any period changes we observe between 2005 and 2010 are offset in the years following, resulting in unchanged completed fertility for women; the implications for New Orleans birth cohorts between 2005 and 2010 would be unchanged by such a process.

  4. Jacksonville, FL; Oklahoma City, OK; Memphis, TN, Louisville, KY; Raleigh, NC; Richmond, VA; Hartford, CT; Birmingham, AB; Buffalo, NY; Rochester, NY; Salt Lake City, UT; Grand Rapids, MI; Tuscon, AZ.

  5. Savannah, GA; Charleston, SC; Virginia Beach, VA; Tampa, FL, Jacksonville, FL, Myrtle Beach; Wilmington, NC.

  6. The ACS micro-data support an analysis of birth probabilities in the previous year with the possibility of substantial adjustment for features of changing population composition but do so only for the post-disaster period, rendering such an approach of little value for this endeavor.

  7. The most recent release of birth records indicates that this pattern has not reversed in the years since 2010. In 2014, 45% of births in the New Orleans MSA were to white women and 38% of births were to black women (authors’ calculation, Louisiana Department of Health 2017).

  8. (48.7% − 39.8%)/48.7%

References

  • Allison, P.D. (2009). Fixed effects regression models (Vol. 160). SAGE publications

  • American Anthropological Association. (1998). Statement on “race”

  • Barreca, A., Deschenes, O., & Guldi, M. (2015). Maybe next month? Temperature shocks, climate change, and dynamic adjustments in birth rates. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 21681.

  • Berger, D. (2009). Constructing crime, framing disaster: routines of criminalization and crisis in Hurricane Katrina. Punishment & Society, 11(4), 491–510.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bourdieu, P. (1993). “identity and representation: elements for a critical reflection on the idea of region.” In language and symbolic power. Edited by John Thompson. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brauner-Otto, S. R. (2014). Environmental quality and fertility: the effects of plant density, species richness, and plant diversity on fertility limitation. Popul Environ, 36(1), 1–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brubaker, R. (2006). Ethnicity without groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Campanella, R. (2014). Two centuries of paradox: the geography of New Orleans’s African American population, from antebellum to postdiluvian times. In R. J. S. Romain Huret (Ed.), Hurricane Katrina in transatlantic perspective (pp. 8–37). Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carballo, M., Hernandez, M., Schneider, K., & Welle, E. (2005). Impact of the tsunami on reproductive health. Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 98.

  • US Census Bureau. (2013). Population estimates: intercensal estimates of the resident population by five-year age groups, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2016, from https://www.census.gov/popest/data/intercensal/county/CO-EST00INT-alldata.html.

  • US Census Bureau. 2016. Census longitudinal infrastructure project. https://census.gov/about/adrm/linkage/projects/clip.html Accessed 12/4/2016.

  • Cherlin, A., Cumberworth, E., Morgan, S. P., & Wimer, C. (2013). The effects of the great recession on family structure and fertility. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 650(1), 214–231.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohan, C., & Cole, S. (2002). Life course transitions and natural disaster: marriage, birth, and divorce following Hurricane Hugo. J Fam Psychol, 16(1), 14–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Creel, L. (2002). Meeting the reproductive health needs of displaced people. Population Reference Bureau, MEASURE Communication Policy Brief. Retrieved from http://www.prb.org/pdf/Meetng ReproHlthDispl_Eng.pdf

  • Curtis, K. J., Fussell, E., & DeWaard, J. (2015). Recovery migration after hurricanes Katrina and Rita: spatial concentration and intensification in the migration system. Demography, 52(4), 1269–1293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cutter, S., Emrich, C., Mitchell, J., & Boruff, B. (2006). The long road home: race, class, and recovery from Hurricane Katrina.: Science and Policy, 48(2).

  • Deitz, S., & Barber, K. (2015). Geographies of inequality, urban renewal, and race, gender, and class post-Katrina New Orleans. Race, Gender & Class, 134–159

  • Diaz, L., & Fussell, E. (2015). Latinos in Metro New Orleans: progress, problems, and potential. The New Orleans Index at Ten. Report from The Data Center. Retrieved from http://www.DataCenterResearch.org

  • Dynes, R. R., & Rodriguez, H. (2010). Finding and framing Katrina. the sociology of Katrina: perspectives on a modern catastrophe. Lanham, MD: Roman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc, 25–36.

  • Ehrenfeucht, R., & Nelson, M. (2013). Young professionals as ambivalent change agents in New Orleans after the 2005 hurricanes. Urban Stud, 50(4), 825–841.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellington, S. R., Kourtis, A. P., Curtis, K. M., Tepper, N., Gorman, S., Jamieson, D. J., et al. (2013). Contraceptive availability during an emergency response in the United States. Journal of Women’s. Health (2002), 22(3), 189–193.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Evans, R. W., Hu, Y., & Zhao, Z. (2010). The fertility effect of catastrophe: US hurricane births. J Popul Econ, 23(1), 1–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Falk, W. W., Hunt, M. O., & Hunt, L. L. (2006). Hurricane Katrina and New Orleanians’ sense of place: return and reconstitution or “gone with the wind”? Du Bois Review: Social Science Research on Race, 3(01), 115–128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finch, C., Emrich, C. T., & Cutter, S. L. (2010). Disaster disparities and differential recovery in New Orleans. Popul Environ, 31(4), 179–202.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forman, T. A., & Lewis, A. E. (2006). Racial apathy and Hurricane Katrina. Du Bois Review, 3(1), 175–202.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frey, W. H., Singer, A., & Park, D. (2007). Resettling New Orleans: the first full picture from the Census. Brookings Institution Metropolitan Policy Program.

  • Fussell, E. (2009). Hurricane chasers in New Orleans: Latino immigrants as a source of a rapid response labor force. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences

  • Fussell, E. (2015). The long-term recovery of New Orleans’ population after Hurricane Katrina. Am Behav Sci, 59(10), 1231–1245.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fussell, E., Sastry, N., & VanLandingham, M. (2010). Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Popul Environ, 31(1–3), 20–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fussell, E., Curtis, K. J., & Dewaard, J. (2014). Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach. Popul Environ, 35(3), 305–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gabe, T., Falk, G., & Mccarty, M. (2005). Hurricane Katrina: docial-demographic characteristics of impacted areas. CRS Report for Congress, November, 4, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  • Galloway, P. R. (1986). Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the preindustrial era. Popul Dev Rev, 1–24.

  • Geaghan, K.A. (2011). Forced to move: an analysis of Hurricane Katrina movers: 2009 American Housing Survey: New Orleans. SEHSD Working Paper Number 2011–17.

  • Grace, K., & Nagle, N. N. (2015). Using high-resolution remotely sensed data to examine the relationship between agriculture and fertility in Mali. Prof Geogr, 67(4), 641–654.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Green, R., Bates, L. K., & Smyth, A. (2007). Impediments to recovery in New Orleans’ upper and lower ninth ward: one year after Hurricane Katrina. Disasters, 31(4), 311–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groen, J. A., & Polivka, A. E. (2008). The effect of Hurricane Katrina on the labor market outcomes of evacuees. Am Econ Rev, 98(2), 43–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Groen, J. A., & Polivka, A. E. (2010). Going home after Hurricane Katrina: determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas. Demography, 47(4), 821–844.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, B. E., Sutton, P. D., Mathews, T. J., Martin, J. A., & Ventura, S. J. (2009). The effect of Hurricane Katrina: births in the US Gulf Coast region, before and after the storm. National Vital Statistics Reports : From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics. System, 58(2), 1–28 32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamoudi, A., E. Frankenberg, C. Sumantri, & D. Thomas. (2014). Impact of the December 2004 Tsunami on Birth Outcomes in Aceh, Indonesia

  • Hapsari, E. D., Widyawati, W. A., Nisman, L., Lusmilasari, R. S., & Matsuo, H. (2009). Change in contraceptive methods following the Yogyakarta earthquake and its association with the prevalence of unplanned pregnancy. Contraception, 79(4), 316–322.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill, K. (2005). War, humanitarian crises, population displacement, and fertility: a review of evidence. National Academies Press

  • Hirsch, A. R., & Levert, A. L. (2009). The Katrina conspiracies: the problem of Trust in Rebuilding an American City. Journal of urban. History, 35(2), 207–219.

  • Hosseini-Chavoshi, M. & M.J. Abbasi-Shavazi. (2013). Demographic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake. International Conference on the Demography of Disasters. Australian National University

  • Hummer, R. A. (1996). Black-white differences in health and mortality: a review and conceptual model. Sociol Q, 37(1), 105–125.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC). 2015. World Disaster. Report, 2014.

  • Joffe, M. (2003). Infertility and environmental pollutants. Br Med Bull, 68(1), 47–70.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, C. (2015). Gentrifying New Orleans: thoughts on race and the movement of capital. Souls, 17(3–4), 175–200.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahn, M. E. (2005). The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions. Review of economics and statistics, 87(2), 271–284.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kates, R. W., Colten, C. E., Laska, S., & Leatherman, S. P. (2006). Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a research perspective. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 103(40), 14653–14660.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaufman, J. S., & Cooper, R. S. (2001). Commentary: considerations for use of racial/ethnic classification in etiologic research. Am J Epidemiol, 154(4), 291–298.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kissinger, P., Schmidt, N., Sanders, C., & Liddon, N. (2007). The effect of the Hurricane Katrina disaster on sexual behavior and access to reproductive care for young women in New Orleans. Sex Transm Dis, 34(11), 883–886.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knabb, R.D., Rhome, J.R. & Brown, D.P. (2005). Tropical cyclone report: Hurricane Katrina 23–30 August 2005 Update. Report National Hurricane Center. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf. Accessed 4 Dec 2016.

  • Lacy, M.G. & Haspel, K. C. (2011). The media’s framing of black looters, shooters, and brutes in Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath: In Critical Rhetorics of Race (pp. 21–46). NYU Press

  • Lam, D. A., & Miron, J. A. (1996). The effects of temperature on human fertility. Demography, 33(3), 291–305.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lay, J. C. (2009). Race, retrospective voting, and disasters the re-election of C. Ray Nagin after Hurricane Katrina. Urban Stud, 44(5), 645–662.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leyser-Whalen, O., Rahman, M., & Berenson, A. B. (2011). Natural and social disasters: racial inequality in access to contraceptives after Hurricane Ike. Journal of Women’s. Health (2002), 20(12), 1861–1866.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin, C.-Y. C. (2010). Instability, investment, disasters, and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965). Popul Environ, 31(4), 255–281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Logan, J. (2006). The impact of Katrina: race and class in storm-damaged neighborhoods. Unpublished manuscript

  • Logan, J. (2014) Diversity and disparities. American Communities Project, Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences. Retrieved November 27, 2016, from “https://s4.ad.brown.edu/projects/diversity/Data/Download3.htm”.

  • Louis, G. (2014). Persistent environmental pollutants and couple fecundity: an overview. Reproduction Reproduction, 147(4), R97–R104.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Louisiana Department of. Health. (2017).2014 Birth Data. http://www.dhh.la.gov/index.cfm/page/2270 (accessed on 2/3/2017).

  • Lovett, J. A. (2013). Tragedy or triumph in post-Katrina New Orleans? Reflections on possession, dispossession, demographic change and affordable housing. Fordham Urban Law Journal City Square, 22(2013), 22–42.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maralani, V. (2013). The demography of social mobility: black-white differences in the process of educational reproduction 1. Am J Sociol, 118(6), 1509–1558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mare, R. D. (1997). Differential fertility, intergenerational educational mobility, and racial inequality. Soc Sci Res, 26(3), 263–291.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Masozera, M., Bailey, M., & Kerchner, C. (2007). Distribution of impacts of natural disasters across income groups: a case study of New Orleans. Ecol Econ, 63(2), 299–306.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy, K., Peterson, D., Sastry, N., & Pollard, M. (2006). The repopulation of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Report. Rand Gulf States Policy Institute.

  • National Center for Health Statistics. (2012). Center for Disease Control and Prevention Natality detail Data Set, 2000-2010. Restricted-use data file and documentation. Accessed 14 Apr 2016.

  • Nobles, J., Frankenberg, E., & Thomas, D. (2015). The effects of mortality on fertility: population dynamics after a natural disaster. Demography, 52(1), 15–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pais, J. F., & Elliott, J. R. (2008). Places as recovery machines: vulnerability and neighborhood change after major hurricanes. Social Forces, 86(4), 1415–1453.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parekh, T. (2015). “They want to live in the Tremé, but they want it for their ways of living”: gentrification and neighborhood practice in Tremé. New Orleans Urban Geography, 36(2), 201–220.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Percheski, C., & Kimbro, R. (2014). How did the great recession affect fertility? Focus, 30(2), 26–30.

    Google Scholar 

  • Plyer, A., & Ortiz, E. (2011). Who lives in New Orleans and the metro area now? Greater New Orleans Community Data Center, New Orleans Research Data Center. http://www.datacenterresearch.org/

  • Plyer, A., Bonaguro, J., & Hodges, K. (2010). Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic US disaster. Popul Environ, 31(1–3), 150–175.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Preston, S. H., & Campbell, C. (1993). Differential fertility and the distribution of traits: the case of IQ. American Journal of Sociology, 997–1019.

  • Ratnayake, R., Degomme, O., & Guha-Sapir, D. (2009). Coming together to document mortality in conflict situations: proceedings of a symposium. Confl Heal, 3(1), 1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rofi, A., Doocy, S., & Robinson, C. (2006). Tsunami mortality and displacement in Aceh province, Indonesia. Disasters, 30(3), 340–350.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruggles, S., Genadek, K., Goeken, R., Grover, J., & Sobek, M. (2015). Integrated public use microdata series: version 6.0 [machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sastry, N. (2009). Displaced New Orleans residents in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: results from a pilot survey. Organization & Environment, 22(4), 395–409.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sastry, N., & Gregory, J. (2014). The location of displaced New Orleans residents in the year after Hurricane Katrina. Demography, 51, 753–775.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sastry, N., & VanLandingham, M. (2009). One year later: mental illness prevalence and disparities among New Orleans residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Am J Public Health, 99(S3), S725–S731.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shrinath, N., Mack, V., & Plyer, A. (2014). Who lives in New Orleans and metro parishes now? Based on 2013 US Census Bureau data. Report from The Data Center. Retrieved from http://www.DataCenterResearch.org

  • Tong, V. T., Zotti, M. E., & Hsia, J. (2010). Impact of the Red River catastrophic flood on women giving birth in North Dakota, 1994-2000. Matern Child Health J, 15(3), 281–288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Urban Land Institute. (2005). A strategy for rebuilding New Orleans, Louisiana. Report.

  • VanLandingham, M. (2010). A second disaster tests Vietnamese American resilience on the Gulf coast. Social Science Research Council’s Items and Issues, 6(3).

  • Vos, F., Rodríguez, J., Below, R., & Guha-Sapir, D. (2010). Annual disaster statistical review 2009: the numbers and trends. In Annual disaster statistical review 2009: The numbers and trends. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)

  • Vu, L., & Vanlandingham, M. J. (2012). Physical and mental health consequences of Katrina on Vietnamese immigrants in New Orleans: a pre- and post-disaster assessment. Journal of immigrant and minority health/Center for Minority. Public Health, 14(3), 386–394.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vu, L., Vanlandingham, M. J., Do, M., & Bankston, C. L. (2009). Evacuation and return of Vietnamese New Orleanians affected by Hurricane Katrina. Organization & Environment, 22(4), 422–436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weber, L., & Peek, L. (2012). Displaced: life in the Katrina diaspora. Austin: University of Texas Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. MIT press.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Wisconsin, Madison, 8128 William H. Sewell Social Sciences Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, USA

    Nathan Seltzer & Jenna Nobles

Authors
  1. Nathan Seltzer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jenna Nobles
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nathan Seltzer.

Electronic supplementary material

ESM 1

(DOCX 92.8 kb).

ESM 2

(DOCX 16 kb).

ESM 3

(DOCX 22 kb).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Seltzer, N., Nobles, J. Post-disaster fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the changing racial composition of New Orleans. Popul Environ 38, 465–490 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0273-3

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0273-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation