Abstract
This paper analyzes factors that affect net migration rates in counties in the U.S. Great Plains between 1930 and 1990, emphasizing the roles of weather (especially drought), environmental amenities, employment, and population, making use of a rich county-level data set. Using a pooled time series model the paper shows that environment is important in population processes, with weather and agricultural change more important in the 1930s and 1940s, and environmental amenities more important in later time periods. The paper provides important insights into how environmental impacts on migration might change over time, and how those changes might be measured.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Albrecht D. E., 1993. The Renewal of Population Loss in the Nonmetropolitan Great Plains Rural Sociology 58: 233–246
Anselin L., 1988. Spatial econometrics: methods and models. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Baltensperger B. H., 1991. A county that has gone downhill Geographical Review 81: 433–442
Beale C. L., Johnson K. M., 1998. The identification of recreational counties in nonmetropolitan areas of the USA Population Research and Policy Review 17: 37–53
Beck N., Katz J., 1995. What to do (and not to do) with time-series-cross-section data in comparative politics American Political Science Review 89: 634–47
Borchert J. R., 1971. The dust bowl in the 1970s Annals of the Association of American Geographers 61: 1–22
Bowles, G. K., Tarver, J. D., Beale, C. L., & Lee, E. S. (1975). Net Migration of the Population by Age, Sex, and Race, 1950–1970 [Computer file]. Athens, GA: Gladys Bowles, University of Georgia [producer], 1975. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1990
Brown D. L., Wardwell J. M., eds. 1980. New directions in urban-rural migration. The population turnaround in rural America. New York: Academic Press
Brown D. L., Swanson L. E., (eds). 2003. Challenges for rural America in the twenty-first century. University Park: Penn State University Press
Carlson P. H., 1991. Black Sunday—The South plains dust blizzard of April 14th, 1935 West Texas Historical Association Yearbook 67:5–17
Cunfer G., 2002. Causes of the dust bowl. In: Anne Knowles, (ed), Past time, past place: GIS for history. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press
Cunfer G., 2005. On the great plains: Agriculture and environment College Station: Texas A&M University Press
Fligstein N., 1981. Going north. migration of blacks and whites from the south, 1900–1950. New York: Academic Press
Frey W. H., Speare Jr. A., 1992. The revival of metropolitan population growth in the United States: An assessment of findings from the 1990 census Population and Development Review 18: 129–146
Frisbie W. P., Poston D. L., 1978. Sustenance Organization and Migration in Non-Metropolitan American. Iowa City: University of Iowa
Fuguitt, G. V. (1992). Population Trends in Rural America CDE Working Paper No 92–19, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Fuguitt, G. V., & Beale, C. L. (1995). Recent Trends in Nonmetropolitan Migration: Toward a New Turnaround? CDE Working Paper No. 95–07, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Fuguitt, G. V., & Beale, C. (1984). Changes in Population , Employment and Industrial Composition in Nonmetropolitan America CDE Working Paper No 84–20, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Fuguitt, G. V., Pfeffer, M., & Jenkins, R. (1985). Gross Migration Trends for Nonmetropolitan Counties. CDE Working Paper No 85–19, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Fuguitt G. V., Brown D. L., 1990. Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1988 Demography 27: 589–600
Gardner, J., & Cohen, W. (1992). Demographic Characteristics of the Population of the United States, 1930–1950: County-Level [Computer file]. ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor], 1992
Graves P. E., 1976. A reexamination of migration, economic opportunity, and the quality of life Journal of Regional Science 16: 107–112
Graves P. E., 1980. Migration and climate Journal of Regional Science 20: 227–237
Graves P. E., 1983. Migration with a composite amenity: The role of rents Journal of Regional Science 23: 541–546
Graves P. E., Knapp T. A., 1989. On the role of amenities in models of migration and regional development Journal of Regional Science 29: 71–87
Graves, P., & Linneman, P. (1979). Household migration: Theoretical and empirical results. Journal of Urban Economics 6: 383–404.
Graves, P. E., & Waldman D. (1991). Multimarket amenity compensation and the behavior of the elderly. American Economic Review, 1374–1381
Gregory J. N., 1989 American exodus: The dust bowl migration and Okie culture in California New York: Oxford University Press
Gutmann M. P., Pullum S., Cunfer G. A., Hagen D., 1998. The great plains population and environment database: Sources and user’s guide. Version 1.0. Austin: Texas Population Research Center
Gutmann M. P. 2000. Scaling and demographic issues in global change research Climatic Change 44: 377–391
Gutmann M. P., Cunfer G., 1999. A new look at the causes of the dust bowl. Lubbock: The International Center for Arid and Semiarid Land Studies, Texas Tech University, Publication 99-1
Gutmann, M. P. (2005a). Great plains population and environment data: Agricultural data, 1870–1997 [Computer file]. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan [producers], 2005. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2005.
Gutmann, M. P. (2005b). Great plains population and environment data: Demographic and social data, 1870–2000 [Computer file]. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan [producers], 2005. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2005.
Haines, M. R., & the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. (2005). Historical, demographic, economic, and social data: The United States, 1790–2000 [Computer file]. ICPSR02896-v2. Hamilton, NY: Colgate University/Ann Arbor: MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [producers], 2004. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2005–04–29
Hewes L., 1965. Causes of wheat failure in the dry farming region, Central great plains, 1939–1957 Economic Geography 41: 313–330
Hewes L., Schmieding A. C., 1956. Risk in the central great plains: Geographical patterns of wheat failure in Nebraska, 1931–1952 Geographical Review 46: 375–387
Huber, P. J. (1967). The behavior of maximum likelihood estimates under non-standard conditions. In Proceedings of the fifth Berkeley symposium in mathematical statistics and probability, pp. 221–233, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press
Hunter L. M. 1998. The association between environmental risk and internal migration flows Population and Environment 19: 247–277
Hunter L. M., 2005. Migration and environmental hazards Population and Environment 26: 273–302
Hurt R. D., 1981. The dust bowl: An agricultural and social history. Chicago: Nelson-Hall
Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research. (1972). Historical, Demographic, Economic, and Social Data: the United States, 1790–1970 [Computer file]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor], 1972
Jobes P. 1992. Economic quality of life decisions in migration to a high natural amenity area.. in: Jobes P. C., Stinner W. F., Wardwell J. M., (eds). Community, society and migration: noneconomic migration in America. Lanham, MD: University Press of America pp. 335–362
Jobes P., Stinner W., Wardwell J., 1992. A paradigm shift in migration explanation. In: Jobes P. C., Stinner W. F., Wardwell J. M., (eds). Community, society and migration: Noneconomic migration in America, Lanham, Maryland: University Press of America. pp. 1–32
Johnson, K. M. & Rathge, R. W. (2006). Agriculture dependence and changing population in the great plains. In W. Kandel & D. L. Brown (Eds.), Population change and rural society, Dordrecht: Springer pp. 197–217
Johnson K. M., Fuguitt G. V., 2000. Continuity and change in rural migration patterns, 1950–1995.Rural Sociology 65: 27–49
Johnson K. M., Beale C. L., 2002. Nonmetro recreation counties. Their identification and rapid growth Rural America 17(4): 12–19
Kittel T. G. F., Rosenbloom NA, Painter T. H., Schimel D. S., VEMAP Modeling Participants. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change Journal of Biogeography. 22:857–862
Kittel, T. G. F., Royle, J. A., Daly, C., Rosenbloom, N. A., Gibson, W. P., Fisher, H. H., Schimel, D. S., Berliner, L. M., & VEMAP2 Participants. (1997). A gridded historical (1895–1993) bioclimate dataset for the conterminous United States. In Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Applied Climatology, 20–24 October 1997, Reno, NV, pp. 219–222, Boston: American Meteorological Society
Lee J., Tchakerian V., 1995. Magnitude and frequency of blowing dust on the southern high plains of the United States, 1947–1989 Annals of the Association of American Geographers 85: 684–693
Lewis M., 1989. National grasslands in the dust bowl Geographical Review 79: 161–171
Long L. H., 1988. Migration and residential mobility in the United States. New York: Russell Sage Foundation
McGranahan D. A., 1999. Natural amenities drive rural population change. Agricultural economic report No. 781. Washington, D.C.: Food and Rural Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
McGranahan D. A., Beale C. L., 2002. Understanding rural population loss Rural America 17(4): 2–11
Millward H., 1996. Countryside recreational access in the United States: A statistical comparison of rural districts Annals of the Association of American Geographers 86: 102–122
Mueser P., 1989. Measuring impact of locational characteristics on migration: Interpreting cross-sectional analyses Demography 26: 499–513
Mueser P., Graves P. E., 1995. Examining the role of economic opportunity and amenities in explaining population redistribution Journal of Urban Economics 37: 176–200
Ojima, D. S., Lackett, J. M., & the Central Great Plains Steering Committee and Assessment Team. (2002). Preparing for a changing climate: The potential consequences of climate variability and change – Central great plains. Report for the US Global Change Research Program. Fort Collins: Colorado State University. Downloaded 12/12/2005 from http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/gpa/gpa_report.pdf
Richter K., 1985. Nonmetropolitan growth in the late 1970s: The end of the turnaround? Demography 22: 245–264
Sell R. R., 1992. Individual and corporate migration decisions: Residential preferences and occupational relocations in the United States. In: Jobes P. C., Stinner W. F., Wardwell J. M., (eds). Community, society and migration: Noneconomic migration in America, Lanham, MD: University Press of America. pp. 221–54
Sims J., Saarinen T. F., 1969. Coping with environmental threat: Great plains farmers and the sudden storm Annals of the Association of American Geographers 59: 677–686
StataCorp. 2005. Intercooled Stata 8.2 for Windows. College Station, TX
Svart L. M., 1976. Environmental preference migration: A review Geographical Review 66: 314–330
U.S. Bureau of the Census. (No date). Components of Change File, 1980–1990. Machine-readable data file. (http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1980s).
U.S. Department. of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. (1933). Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930. Vol. III, Population. Washington: Government Printing Office
U.S. Department. of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 1973. Census of the United States, 1970. Vol. I, Chapter C (General Social and Economic Characteristics). Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. (1978). County and City Data book [United States] Consolidated File: County Data, 1944–1977.[Computer file]. ICPSR version. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census [producer], 1978. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2000
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 1981. Census of the United States, 1980. Vol. I, Chapter C (General Social and Economic Characteristics). Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. (1988). County Statistics File 3 (CO-STAT 3): [United States] [Computer file]. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census [producer], 1988. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1989
U.S. Dept. of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. (1992). Census of Population and Housing, 1990 [United Stats]: Summary Tape File 3C [Computer file]. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census [producer], 1992. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1993
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of the Census. 1993. Census of the United States, 1990. Census of population, social and economic characteristics. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office
U.S. Geological Survey. (No date). Digital Elevation Model (30 minute). [Computer File]. Sioux Falls, SD: USGS Eros Data Center. http://edc.usgs.gov/products/elevation/dem.html.
U.S. Geological Survey. (1990). Digital Line Graphs from 1:2,000,000-Scale Maps. [Computer File]. Reston, Virginia: U. S. G. S. Earth Science Information Center
Ullman E. L., 1954. Amenities as a factor in regional growth Geographical Review 44: 119–132
Unruh J. D., Krol M. S., Kliot N., (eds). 2004. Environmental change and its implications for population migration. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Walters, William H., 1994. Climate and U.S. elderly migration rates Papers in Regional Science 73: 309–329
Wardwell J. M., 1980. Toward a theory of urban-rural migration in the developed world. In: Brown D. L., Wardwell J. M., (eds). New directions in urban–rural migration, New York: Academic Press Pp. 71–114
Wardwell J. M., 1992. The motivational salience of structural change in nonmetropolitan America. In: Jobes P. C., Stinner W. F., Wardwell J. M., (eds). Community, society and migration: Noneconomic migration in America. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. pp. 33–50
Wardwell J. M., Gilchrist J. C., 1980. Employment deconcentration in the nonmetropolitan migration turnaround Demography 17: 145–158
Wheat, L. F., Wardwell, J. M., & Faulkner, L. (1984). The 1970s’ Migration turnaround in rural, nonadjacent counties. Final Report. U.S. Department of Commerce. Economic Development Administration
White H., 1980. A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity Econometrica 48: 817–830
White, M. J., Mueser, P., & Tierney, J. P. (1987). Net migration of the population of the United States by age, race, and sex, 1970–1980 [Computer file]. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1987. ICPSR Study no. 8697
Worster D. E., 1979. Dust bowl: The southern plains in the 1930s. Oxford: Oxford University Press
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research has been sponsored by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development through Grant Number R01 HD33554. We are grateful to a large number of colleagues for assistance and advice over the years, especially Sara Piñon-Pullum, Geoff Cunfer, and Lori Hunter. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Social Science History Association, Washington, D.C., November, 1997, at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, in Chicago, April, 1998, and before a number of university audiences. The participants in all those seminars made helpful suggestions, and we have tried to benefit from them.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gutmann, M.P., Deane, G.D., Lauster, N. et al. Two Population-Environment Regimes in the Great Plains of the United States, 1930–1990. Popul Environ 27, 191–225 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-006-0016-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-006-0016-3