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Urban heat islands in Hong Kong: statistical modeling and trend detection

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Abstract

Urban heat islands (UHIs), usually defined as temperature differences between urban areas and their surrounding rural areas, are one of the most significant anthropogenic modifications to the Earth’s climate. This study applies the extreme value theory to model and detect trends in extreme UHI events in Hong Kong, which have rarely been documented. Extreme UHI events are defined as UHIs with intensity higher than a specific threshold, 4.8 for summer and 7.8 °C for winter. Statistical modeling based on extreme value theory is found to permit realistic modeling of these extreme events. Trends of extreme UHI intensity, frequency, and duration are introduced through changes in parameters of generalized Pareto, Poisson, and geometric distributions, respectively. During the 27-year study period, none of the quantities in winter analyzed in this study increased significantly. The annual mean summertime daily maximum UHI intensities, which are samples from a Gaussian distribution, show an increasing but nonsignificant linear trend. However, the intensity of extreme UHI events in summer is increasing significantly, which implies that the risk of mortality and heat-related diseases due to heat stress at night (when the daily maximum UHI occurs) in summer is also increasing. The warming climate has threatened and will continue to threaten inhabitants of this subtropical high-density city. Strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, such as adding greenery and planning a city with good natural ventilation, are needed.

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Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Project No. 14408214 and 11305715), City University of Hong Kong Campus Sustainability Project (698603), and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, CUHK (Project ID: 1907002). We thank the Hong Kong Observatory for providing meteorological records. We appreciate the valuable comments and suggestions from the three anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Architecture, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

    Weiwen Wang & Edward Yan Yung Ng

  2. Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

    Wen Zhou

  3. Institute of Future Cities, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

    Edward Yan Yung Ng & Yong Xu

  4. Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

    Edward Yan Yung Ng

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  1. Weiwen Wang
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Correspondence to Wen Zhou.

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Wang, W., Zhou, W., Ng, E.Y.Y. et al. Urban heat islands in Hong Kong: statistical modeling and trend detection. Nat Hazards 83, 885–907 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2353-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2353-6

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