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Using new models to assess probabilistic seismic hazard of the North–South Seismic Zone in China

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Abstract

The North–South Seismic Zone is a well-known seismotectonic zone in China that frequently experiences major earthquakes. A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for this zone is required. In this study, we perform a new PSHA for the North–South Seismic Zone with new models, including a fault source model and a time-dependent seismicity model of major-earthquake seismogenic structures. We demonstrate that the seismic hazard in areas near faults calculated using the fault source model is higher than that calculated using the area model. Faults close to their expected recurrence time for major earthquakes have high seismic hazard. Areas of high seismic hazard in the North–South Seismic Zone between 2016 and 2065 are the Moxi Segment of the Xianshuihe Fault, the Anninghe Fault, and the Daliangshan Fault. High-seismic-hazard areas between 2066 and 2115 are the Luhuo and Zheduotang segments of the Xianshuihe Fault and the Anninghe Fault. The Moxi Segment of the Xianshuihe Fault has the highest seismic hazard over the next 50 years.

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Acknowledgments

The time-independent seismic hazard model was obtained from the Compiling Committee of the Seismic Zoning Map in China. We thank them for providing the area source model, seismicity model, GMPE model, and site condition model data. We are also grateful to the research group of Study on methodology of hazardous area recognition and seismic hazard assessment for great earthquakes of the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, for providing the parameters of major-earthquake seismogenic structures in the North–South Seismic Zone. The study was sponsored by Earthquake Industry Specific Fund (201408014).

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  1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 Minzu Daxue Nanlu Road, Beijing, 100081, China

    Changlong Li, Weijin Xu, Jian Wu & Mengtan Gao

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  1. Changlong Li
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  2. Weijin Xu
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  3. Jian Wu
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  4. Mengtan Gao
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Correspondence to Changlong Li.

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Sponsored by: Earthquake Industry Specific Fund (201408014).

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Li, C., Xu, W., Wu, J. et al. Using new models to assess probabilistic seismic hazard of the North–South Seismic Zone in China. Nat Hazards 82, 659–681 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2212-5

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