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Lightning fatality risk map of the contiguous United States

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Abstract

A new method to calculate lightning fatality risk is presented in order to develop a way to identify the lightning risk in areas where lightning fatality data are not available. This new method uses GIS software to multiply lightning flash density and population density on a grid and display the results on a map. A comparison to the known lightning fatality data was done to verify the method. The method works well with a quadratic regression correlation coefficient as high as 0.864, although a hybrid quadratic/log-linear regression is preferred for various reasons despite having a slightly lower correlation coefficient (0.827). Given the good performance, the lightning fatality risk method may be useful for developing countries, where lightning fatality reports may not be reliable, to help guide where to allocate scarce resources for lightning safety initiatives.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Vaisala, Inc. for use of the NLDN data and for Fig. 1. We also thank two anonymous reviewers who contributed to the improvement of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Rockledge, FL, USA

    William P. Roeder

  2. Resource Systems Group, Inc., Burlington, VT, USA

    Benjamin H. Cummins

  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

    Kenneth L. Cummins

  4. Holle Meteorology and Photography, Oro Valley, AZ, USA

    Ronald L. Holle

  5. Meteorology Program, Department of Geography, Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, IL, USA

    Walker S. Ashley

Authors
  1. William P. Roeder
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  2. Benjamin H. Cummins
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  3. Kenneth L. Cummins
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  4. Ronald L. Holle
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  5. Walker S. Ashley
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ronald L. Holle.

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Roeder, W.P., Cummins, B.H., Cummins, K.L. et al. Lightning fatality risk map of the contiguous United States. Nat Hazards 79, 1681–1692 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1920-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1920-6

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