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An application of regional time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake

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Abstract

A regional time and magnitude predictable model has been applied to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes in the vicinity of 8 October 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake (25°–40°N and 65°–85°E), which includes India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Hindukush, Pamirs, Mangolia and Tien-Shan. This region has been divided into 17 seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismotectonics and geomorphological criteria. A complete earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental) of magnitude Ms ≥ 5.5 during the period 1853–2005 has been used in the analysis. According to this model, the magnitude of preceding earthquake governs the time of occurrence and magnitude of future mainshock in the sequence. The interevent time between successive mainshocks with magnitude equal to or greater than a minimum magnitude threshold were considered and used for long-term earthquake prediction in each of seismogenic sources. The interevent times and magnitudes of mainshocks have been used to determine the following predictive relations: logT t = 0.05 M min + 0.09 M p − 0.01 log M 0 + 01.14; and M f = 0.21 M min − 0.01 M p + 0.03 log M 0 + 7.21 where, T t is the interevent time of successive mainshocks, M min is minimum magnitude threshold considered, M p is magnitude of preceding mainshock, M f is magnitude of following mainshock and M 0 is the seismic moment released per year in each seismogenic source. It was found that the magnitude of following mainshock (M f) does not depend on the interevent time (T t), which indicates the ability to predict the time of occurrence of future mainshock. A negative correlation between magnitude of following mainshock (M f) and preceding mainshock (M p) indicates that the larger earthquake is followed by smaller one and vice versa. The above equations have been used for the seismic hazard assessment in the considered region. Based on the model applicability in the studied region and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of last mainshock in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities (PC) for the occurrence of next shallow large mainshocks (Ms ≥ 6.5), during next 20 years as well as the expected magnitudes have been estimated.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to Dr. B. K. Rastogi, Director General, Institute of Seismological Research for his kind permission to publish this work. Authors are highly indebted to Prof. E. E. Papadimitriou and Prof. V. G. Karakostas, Department of Geophysics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece for kindly providing their computer codes. First author is thankful to the Department of Science and Technology and Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India for providing financial support. Some figures were made in GMT software (Wessel and Smith 1995). We acknowledge thoughtful comments and suggestions by Editor-In-Chief Dr. Thomas Glade and two anonymous reviewers which enhanced the quality of manuscript significantly.

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  1. R. B. S. Yadav

    Present address: Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India, Near ALEAP, Pragathi Nagar, Near JNTU, Kukatpally, Hyderabad, India

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Raisan, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382009, India

    R. B. S. Yadav, S. Chopra & A. P. Singh

  2. Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, Uttaranchal, 247667, India

    D. Shanker

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  1. R. B. S. Yadav
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Correspondence to R. B. S. Yadav.

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Yadav, R.B.S., Shanker, D., Chopra, S. et al. An application of regional time and magnitude predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in the vicinity of October 8, 2005 Kashmir Himalaya earthquake. Nat Hazards 54, 985–1014 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9519-4

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