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Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast

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Abstract

We used three approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. First, we created distribution and abundance models for common bird species using climate, elevation, and tree species variables and modeled how bird distributions might change as habitats shift. Second, we assessed potential effects on high-elevation birds, especially Bicknell’s thrush (Catharus bicknelli), that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, by using statistical associations between climate, spruce-fir forest vegetation and bird survey data. Last, we complemented these projections with an assessment of how habitat quality of a migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens) might be affected by climate change. Large changes in bird communities of the Northeast are likely to result from climate change, and these changes will be most dramatic under a scenario of continued high emissions. Indeed, high-elevation bird species may currently be at the threshold of critical change with as little as 1°C warming reducing suitable habitat by more than half. Species at mid elevations are likely to experience declines in habitat quality that could affect demography. Although not all species will be affected adversely, some of the Northeast’s iconic species, such as common loon and black-capped chickadee, and some of its most abundant species, including several neotropical migrants, are projected to decline significantly in abundance under all climate change scenarios. No clear mitigation strategies are apparent, as shifts in species’ abundances and ranges will occur across all habitat types and for species with widely differing ecologies.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by grants from Wellesley College, the US National Science Foundation to Wellesley College and Dartmouth College, the Smithsonian Institution, the Trustees and members of the Vermont Institute of Natural Science, the Thomas Marshall Foundation, Stone House Farm Fund of the Upper Valley Community Foundation, the US Fish and Wildlife Service Migratory Bird Division, and the Northern Global Change Program of the US Forest Service. We are indebted to our wonderful colleague, the late Raymond O’Connor, for all his early work in spatial assessments of bird distributions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biological Sciences, Wellesley College, 106 Central St., Wellesley, MA, 02481, USA

    N. L. Rodenhouse

  2. School of Natural Resources, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA

    S. N. Matthews

  3. Conservation Biology Department, Vermont Institute of Natural Science, Quechee, VT, USA

    K. P. McFarland & J. D. Lambert

  4. U. S. Forest Service, Delaware, OH, USA

    S. N. Matthews, L. R. Iverson & A. Prasad

  5. Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, USA

    T. S. Sillett

  6. Department of Biological Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA

    R. T. Holmes

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  1. N. L. Rodenhouse
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  2. S. N. Matthews
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  3. K. P. McFarland
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  4. J. D. Lambert
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  5. L. R. Iverson
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  6. A. Prasad
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  7. T. S. Sillett
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  8. R. T. Holmes
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Correspondence to N. L. Rodenhouse.

Appendix

Appendix

Appendix 1 Bird species included in the analysis of common bird species. Each species is classified based on migratory status and the breeding habitat guild used to summarize the data. We also report the percent of the species occupancy in the northeast for occupancy based on the habitat model under current conditions. Finally, we report the projected change in incidence and occupancy within the Northeast
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Rodenhouse, N.L., Matthews, S.N., McFarland, K.P. et al. Potential effects of climate change on birds of the Northeast. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 13, 517–540 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9126-1

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