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Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems

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Abstract

In this review paper, we explore latest results concerning a few key tipping elements of the Earth system in the ocean, cryosphere, and land realms, namely the Atlantic overturning circulation and the subpolar gyre system, the marine ecosystems, the permafrost, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and in terrestrial resource use systems. All these different tipping elements share common characteristics related to their nonlinear nature. They can also interact with each other leading to synergies that can lead to cascading tipping points. Even if the probability of each tipping event is low, they can happen relatively rapidly, involve multiple variables, and have large societal impacts. Therefore, adaptation measures and management in general should extend their focus beyond slow and continuous changes, into abrupt, nonlinear, possibly cascading, high impact phenomena. Remote sensing observations are found to be decisive in the understanding and determination of early warning signals of many tipping elements. Nevertheless, considerable research still remains to properly incorporate these data in the current generation of coupled Earth system models. This is a key prerequisite to correctly develop robust decadal prediction systems that may help to assess the risk of crossing thresholds potentially crucial for society. The prediction of tipping points remains difficult, notably due to stochastic resonance, i.e. the interaction between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing, asking for large ensembles of predictions to correctly assess the risks. Furthermore, evaluating the proximity to crucial thresholds using process-based understanding of each system remains a key aspect to be developed for an improved assessment of such risks. This paper finally proposes a few research avenues concerning the use of remote sensing data and the need for combining different sources of data, and having long and precise-enough time series of the key variables needed to monitor Earth system tipping elements.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Teodolina Lopez and Anny Cazenave from ISSI who organized the Workshop leading to this review paper. We acknowledge very constructive and inspiring comments from one anonymous reviewer that clearly helped to improve the manuscript clarity. DS is supported by Blue-Action (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant Number: 727852) and EUCP (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 776613) projects. CIS’ inputs contribute to the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (www.pecs-science.org) and the Global Land Programme (www.glp.earth). AB benefited from Nunataryuk project (H2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No. 773421) as well as ESA Climate Change Initiative project on Permafrost (4000123681/18/I-NB). GD was supported by the TiPACCs project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant Number: 820575).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), UMR CNRS 5805, EPOC-OASU Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy Saint-Hilaire, 33615, Pessac, France

    Didier Swingedouw

  2. Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Hallerstrasse 12, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

    Chinwe Ifejika Speranza

  3. b.geos GmbH, Industriestrasse 1, 2100, Korneuburg, Austria

    Annett Bartsch

  4. Austrian Polar Research Institute, c/o Universität Wien, Zimmer B0410, Universitätsstrasse 7, 1010, Vienna, Austria

    Annett Bartsch

  5. CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, 38000, Grenoble, France

    Gael Durand

  6. Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8187, LOG, Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences, Université Littoral Côte d’Opale, 62930, Wimereux, France

    Cedric Jamet & Gregory Beaugrand

  7. CNR - ISMAR - Lerici, Forte Santa Teresa, Loc. Pozzuolo, National Research Council of Italy, 19032, Lerici, SP, Italy

    Alessandra Conversi

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  1. Didier Swingedouw
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  2. Chinwe Ifejika Speranza
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  3. Annett Bartsch
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  7. Alessandra Conversi
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Correspondence to Didier Swingedouw.

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Swingedouw, D., Ifejika Speranza, C., Bartsch, A. et al. Early Warning from Space for a Few Key Tipping Points in Physical, Biological, and Social-Ecological Systems. Surv Geophys 41, 1237–1284 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-020-09604-6

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