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Identifying the major players behind increasing global carbon dioxide emissions: a decomposition analysis

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Abstract

The paper using data on 114 countries during 1992–2004 identifies the major perpetrators of escalating global emissions. Using the LMDI decomposition technique, we examine the contribution of the major factors in changing the level of emissions. The effect of GDP on emission is found to be substantially more than that of population. However, the income effect shows high fluctuation over time, while the population effect has been roughly constant. The upper middle-income countries, particularly of Europe and Central Asia, despite high economic growth have reduced their emissions substantially, while in the countries of North America, East Asia Pacific and South Asia increase in income have been significantly accompanied by increase in emission. Apart from few low emitting countries, almost all others have been successful in increasing emission efficiency, but their energy efficiencies have not been remarkable. Although emission efficiency has been more instrumental in curtailing emission, in some cases the path of change in emission follows that of change in energy intensity. Thus, both energy and emission intensity have crucial roles in determining the level of emissions. It may be suggested that emphasis should be given on policies oriented towards sufficient counteractive energy and emission efficiencies before embarking on a path towards economic growth.

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Notes

  1. In ‘IPAT’, it is considered that I = P × A × T.

  2. Birdsall (1992) has specified two mechanisms through which population growth could contribute to emissions. First, a larger population could result in increased demand for energy for power, industry and transportation, hence the increasing emissions. Second, population growth could contribute to emissions through its effect on deforestation. The destruction of the forests, changes in land use, and combustion of fuel wood could significantly contribute to emissions.

  3. The concept is similar to environmental Kuznets hypothesis.

  4. A notable among them is World Bank (2007) that provides a decomposition of the change in fossil fuel CO2 emissions between 1994 and 2004 for 70 countries.

  5. See data.un.org.

  6. See worldbank.org.

  7. Based on the World Bank classifications.

  8. Calculated from available UN data for 204 countries.

  9. Karakaya and Özcag (2005) in their analysis argued that the reduction in emissions of former Soviet Union countries is mainly due to the crisis experienced by them after gaining their independence; population effect is mainly stable, while with energy-saving and carbon-reduction plans most of the countries have improved their energy intensities. However, in some countries like Germany, Poland, Switzerland, etc. though the feature is not applicable, they have reduced their emissions.

  10. Except in case of Haiti, in the other three countries the combined effects of emission and energy intensities reinforce the negative effects of income and population.

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Acknowledgment

We are thankful to Prof. Ratan Khasnabis, University of Calcutta for his valuable comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sundarban Hazi Desarat College, Pathankhali, 24 Parganas (South), West Bengal, India

    Ratnakar Pani

  2. Behala College, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

    Ujjaini Mukhopadhyay

Authors
  1. Ratnakar Pani
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  2. Ujjaini Mukhopadhyay
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ratnakar Pani.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and Figs. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23.

Table 1 Classification of sample countries
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Table 2 Percentage contribution of high- and low-emitting countries to total emissions in 2004
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Table 3 Percentage contribution of countries to increase in emissions from 1992 to 2004
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Table 4 Percentage change in yearly emissions from 1992 to 2004 and percentage of countries with decreasing emissions
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Table 5 CO2 emissions (million metric tons) in 1992 and 2004, percentage change over the period and their corresponding rank orders
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Table 6 Correlation coefficients for the year 2004 and change from 1992
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Table 7 Decomposition of global CO2 emissions (in million metric ton)
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Table 8 Countrywise summary results of decomposition
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Table 9 Countrywise Offsetting rate
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Fig. 1
figure 1

Relationship between share of total emissions in 2004 and share of change in emissions from 1992 to 2004

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Fig. 2
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Top 20 countries with highest per capita CO2 emissions

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Fig. 3
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Top 20 countries in highest CO2 emissions with respect to GDP

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Fig. 4
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Top 20 countries in highest CO2 emissions with respect to energy consumption

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Fig. 5
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Change in global CO2 and the contributing factors

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Fig. 6
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in HINO countries

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Fig. 7
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in HIO countries

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Fig. 8
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in UMI countries

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Fig. 9
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in LMI countries

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Fig. 10
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in LI countries

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Fig. 11
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in East Asia and Pacific

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Fig. 12
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Europe and Central Asia

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Fig. 13
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Latin America and Carribean

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Fig. 14
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Middle East and North Africa

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Fig. 15
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in North America

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Fig. 16
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in South Asia

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Fig. 17
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Fig. 18
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in China

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Fig. 19
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in USA

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Fig. 20
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in India

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Fig. 21
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Japan

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Fig. 22
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Russian Federation

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Fig. 23
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Change in CO2 and the contributing factors in Germany

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Pani, R., Mukhopadhyay, U. Identifying the major players behind increasing global carbon dioxide emissions: a decomposition analysis. Environmentalist 30, 183–205 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-010-9256-y

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