Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Prediction of plant carbon sink potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China

  • Published:
Environment, Development and Sustainability Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Carbon sink is the process of absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, through forests, wetlands, grasslands, and oceans. Through this process, greenhouse gases can be absorbed from the atmosphere. In order to analyze the contribution of carbon sinks to carbon neutrality, three parts of works were carried out on carbon sinks in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Firstly, the regional carbon sinks were calculated based on actual data. Secondly, the macro-factors were selected related to carbon sinks, on which the econometric analysis was carried out. Finally, a carbon sink prediction model was constructed based on partial least squares regression. After that, three carbon sink development scenarios with different intensities were set up. Under these three scenarios, the carbon sink potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was forecasted from 2020 to 2030. The results show that under the strong carbon sink scenario, the carbon sink in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei can neutralize 388.6901 million tons/a of carbon emissions by 2030, whose contribution rate to China's carbon emission reduction can reach 10.48%. Compared with the baseline scenario and weak carbon sink scenario, the strong carbon sink scenario can achieve greater carbon sink potential and contribute more to China's carbon neutrality. As a conclusion, the target of carbon neutrality of China can be easier to achieve under the strong carbon sink scenario.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article.

References

  • Bu, X. Y., Dong, S. C., Mi, W. B., & Li, F. J. (2019). Spatial-temporal change of carbon storage and sink of wetland ecosystem in arid regions, Ningxia Plain. Atmospheric Environment, 204, 89–101.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fang, J. Y. (2000). The forest carbon pool in the northern hemisphere at mid- and high-latitudes may be much smaller than current estimates. Journal of Plant Ecology, 2000(05), 635–638.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang, G., Chen, X., Li, L., et al. (2020). Domain adaptive partial least squares regression. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 201, 103986.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Huang, Y. L., Cheng, L. H., & Li, X. Q. (2012). On the basis of forest volume expansion method to predict the carbon sink potentiality in Daxing’anling. Advanced Research on Engineering Materials, Energy, Management and Control, 424, 128–131.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, X. (2016). Research on the potential and development path of forestry carbon sink in China. Zhejiang University.

  • Jiang, X., & Huang, Z. H. (2016). Analysis of China’s forestry carbon sink potential under the new economic normal. China Rural Economy, 11, 57–67.

    Google Scholar 

  • Konca-Kêdzierska, K. (2018). Application of partial regression methods to long range forecasts. Przeglad Geofizyczny, 63(4), 353–362.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, Y. (2014) Study on agricultural carbon sink function and compensation mechanism-taking alimentarn crop as an example. Shandong Agricultural University.

  • Li, B., & Zhang, J. B. (2013). Stage characteristics and spatial differences of crop carbon sinks in my country. Hubei Agricultural Science, 52(05), 1229–1233.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, H. K. (2021). Research progress on forest carbon sink assessment methods and carbon sequestration potential estimation under the carbon neutral vision. China Geological Survey, 8(04), 79–86.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, K. J. (2000). Land use change and net greenhouse gas emissions and carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Meteorological Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li, Q., Zhu, J. H., Feng, Y., & Xiao, W. F. (2018). Prediction of carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential of forest arbor forests in China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 14(03), 287–294.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lv, M. Z., Sheng, L. X., & Zhang, L. (2013). Comparison of carbon sink functions in typical wetland ecosystems in China. Wetland Science, 11(01), 114–120.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tian, Y. (2015). Low-carbon agriculture development in china: research on production efficiency. Huazhong Agricultural University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, S.Y. (2019) Prediction of forest carbon sink potential in Heilongjiang Province. Northeast Forestry University.

  • Wang, B., Mu, C. C., Lu, H. C., Li, N., Zhang, Y., & Ma, L. (2021). Ecosystem carbon storage and sink/source of temperate forested wetlands in Xiaoxing’anling, northeast China. Journal of Forestry Research, 3, 839–849.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu, N. L. (2011). An empirical study on the development of forest carbon sink trade in Heilongjiang Province. International Trade Issues, 2011(07), 116–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ye, X., & Wu, Z. (2021). Seasonal prediction of arctic summer sea ice concentration from a partial least squares regression model. Atmosphere, 12(2), 230.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zamolodchikov, D. G., Grabovskii, V. I., Korovin, G. N., Gitarskii, M. L., Blinov, V. G., Dmitriev, V. V., & Kurz, W. A. (2013). Carbon budget of managed forests in the russian federation in 1990–2050: post-evaluation and forecasting. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 38(10), 701–714.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Fang, L., & Jing, P. (2020). Analysis of broad leaved forest carbon sinks changes and forest economics and management in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 27(12), 12922–12931.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Y., Li, X. G., & Wen, Y. L. (2022). Analysis of China’s forest carbon sink potential under the background of carbon peak carbon neutralization. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 44(01), 38–47.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by a Grant from the Low carbon Economy Industry Research Institute construction project of Baoding City (No. 1106/9100615009).

Funding

This work was supported by a grant from the Low carbon Economy Industry Research Institute construction project of Baoding City (No. 1106/9100615009).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China

    Yuansheng Huang, Zhaobei Li & Mengshu Shi

Authors
  1. Yuansheng Huang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zhaobei Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mengshu Shi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by YH, ZL, and MS. The first draft of the manuscript was written by ZL, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhaobei Li.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interests

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Ethics approval

Not applicable.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Huang, Y., Li, Z. & Shi, M. Prediction of plant carbon sink potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. Environ Dev Sustain 26, 3529–3556 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02846-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02846-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation