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Scenarios evaluation on the greenhouse gases emission reduction potential in Iran’s thermal power plants based on the LEAP model

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Abstract

Over the past few years, the pace of fossil fuel consumption has witnessed an accelerating trend across the world which has been really noticeable especially for the power generation sector. With regard to its global importance, the environment must be also preserved and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as well as environmental costs need to be moderated. Given the urgency of energy preservation and environmental issues, the process of electricity generation should be evaluated. Accordingly, elimination of conditions along with prediction of energy consumption and pollutant emissions have been performed through energy simulation and modeling software tools, e.g., Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The energy consumption in thermal power plants for 2035 is estimated to be 209.7, 153.5, and 132.0 Bcm respectively for Reference (REF), Efficiency based on 5-Year National Development Plan (E5P), and Efficiency similar to UK (EUK) scenarios using efficiency improvement scenario of thermal power plants in Iran. GHG emissions for 2035 are thus predicted by 456.8 MtCO2-eq for the REF scenario, and 332.6 and 285.1 MtCO2-eq for the E5P and the EUK ones, respectively. Environmental costs for electricity generation system will also diminish via applying scenarios in this sector and its least amount, that is, US$835.8 million is related to the EUK scenario. Accomplishing goals such as better preservation of fossil resources and the environment will be consequently facilitated through improved efficiency and effectiveness of consumption of energy resources. To meet the objectives of environmental preservation, it is suggested to completely implement development plans and also make attempts to promote the technology of thermal power plants in Iran similar to that in developed countries. This study also compares the findings with those reported in recently published investigations.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to express our gratitude to Ms. Najmeh Hesami and Aisan Khalili Azar for their valuable and constructive contributions during the implementation of this research work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Energy Engineering and Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

    Mina Masoomi & Mostafa Panahi

  2. Economic Social and Environmental Studies Office, SATBA - Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran

    Reza Samadi

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  1. Mina Masoomi
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Correspondence to Mostafa Panahi.

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Table 4. Parameters units in LEAP modeling
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Masoomi, M., Panahi, M. & Samadi, R. Scenarios evaluation on the greenhouse gases emission reduction potential in Iran’s thermal power plants based on the LEAP model. Environ Monit Assess 192, 235 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-8196-3

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