Abstract
Dynamic modeling of plant pathogens has usually been accomplished with either a mean field or spatially explicit approach, searching generally for either broad generalization or precise prediction. In search of a qualitative intermediate that is able to query spatial particulars of transmission, we take an approximate approach using network theory. Some elements of network theory are applied to a specific case of the early spread of the coffee rust disease (agent = Hemileia vastatrix) on a single large shaded coffee farm in Chiapas, Mexico. We find that infection rates within connected components are more homogeneous than infection rates among components, suggesting that the initial stages of this disease show pattern that can be detected using simple ideas from network theory.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Avelino, J., Willocquet, L., & Savary, S. (2004). Effects of crop management patterns on coffee rust epidemics. Plant Pathology, 53, 541–547.
Avelino, J., Zelaya, H., Merlo, A., Pineda, A., Ordoñez, M., & Savary, S. (2006). The intensity of a coffee rust epidemic is dependent on production situations. Ecological Modelling, 197(3), 431–447.
Avelino, J., Cristancho, M., Georgiou, S., Imbach, P., Aguilar, L., Bornemann, G., Laderach, P., Anzueto, F., Hruska, A. J., & Morales, C. (2015). The coffee rust crises in Colombia and Central America (2008 – 2013): impacts, plausible causes and proposed solutions. Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571=015-0446-9.
Brooks, C. P., Antonovics, J., & Keitt, T. H. (2008). Spatial and temporal heterogeneity explain disease dynamics in a spatially explicit network model. The American Naturalist, 172(2), 149–159.
Cressey, D. (2013). Coffee rust regains foothold: researchers marshal technology in bid to thwart fungal outbreak in Central America. Nature, 493(7434), 587–588.
Fry, W. E. (2012). Principles of plant disease management. London: Academic.
Garrett, K. A., Forbes, G. A., Savary, S., Skelsey, P., Sparks, A. H., Valdivia, C., Van Bruggen, A. H. C., Willocquet, L., Djurle, A., Duveiller, E., & Eckersten, H. (2011). Complexity in climate-change impacts: an analytical framework for effects mediated by plant disease. Plant Pathology, 60, 15–30.
Gentle, J. E. (2009). Computational statistics. NY: Springer.
Gilligan, C. A. (1995). Modelling soil-borne plant pathogens: reaction-diffusion models. Canadian Journal of Plant Pathology, 17(2), 96–108.
Gilligan, C. A. (2002). An epidemiological framework for disease management. Advances in Botanical Research, 38, 1–64.
Goleniewski, G., & Newton, A. C. (1994). Modelling the spread of fungal diseases using a nearest neighbour approach: effect of geometrical arrangement. Plant Pathology, 43(4), 631–643.
Gross, T., & Blasius, B. (2008). Adaptive coevolutionary networks: a review. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 5, 259–271.
Jackson, D., Vandermeer, J., & Perfecto, I. (2009). Spatial and temporal dynamics of a fungal pathogen promote pattern formation in a tropical agroecosystem. The Open Ecology Journal, 2, 62–73.
Jackson, D., Skillman, J., & Vandermeer, J. (2012). Indirect biological control of the coffee leaf rust, Hemileia vastratrix, by the entomogenous fungus Lecanicillium lecanii in a complex coffee agroecosystem. Biological Control, 61, 89–97.
Jeger, M. J., Pautasso, M., Holdenrieder, O., & Shaw, M. W. (2007). Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist, 174(2), 279–297.
Keeling, M. J., & Eames, K. T. D. (2005). Networks and epidemic models. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2(4), 295–307.
Kermack, W. O., & McKendrick, A. G. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 115(772), 700–721 The Royal Society.
King, A. A., Domenech de Celles, M., Magpantay, F. M. G., & Rohani, P. (2015). Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, 282, 20150347.
Kleczkowski, A., Gilligan, C. A., & Bailey, D. J. (1997). Scaling and spatial dynamics in plant–pathogen systems: from individuals to populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 264(1384), 979–984.
Kudryavtseva, N. N. (2003). Use of the “partition” test in behavioral and pharmacological experiments. Neuroscience and Behavioral Physiology, 33(5), 461–471.
Kushalappa, A. C., & Eskes, A. B. (1989). Advances in coffee rust research. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 27, 503–531.
Kushalappa, A. C., Akutsu, M., & Ludwig, A. (1983). Application of survival ratio for monocyclic process of Hemileia vastatrix in predicting coffee rust infection rates. Phytopathology, 73, 96–103.
Kushalappa, A. C., Akutsu, M., Oseguera, S. H., Chave, G. M., Melles, C. A., Miranda, J., & Bartolo, G. F. (1984). Equations for predicting the rate of coffee rust development based on net survival ratio for macrocyclic process of Hemileia vastatrix. Fitopathologia Brasileira., 9, 255–271.
Kushalappa, A. C., Hernández, T. A., & Lemo, H. G. (1986). Evaluation of simple and complex coffee rust forecasts to time fungicide application. Fitopatologia Brasileira., 11, 515–526.
Levins, R. (1966). The strategy of model building in population biology. American Scientist, 54(4), 421–431.
Martinez-Bakker, M., King, A. A., & Rohani, P. (2015). Unraveling the transmission ecology of polio. PLoS Biology, 13(6), e1002172.
McCook, S., & Vandermeer, J. (2015). The big rust and the red queen: Long-term perspectives on coffee rust research. Phytopathology, 105(9), 1164–1173.
Mikaberidze, A., Mundt, C. C., & Bonhoeffer, S. (2016). Invasiveness of plant pathogens depends on the spatial scale of host distribution. Ecological Applications, 26(4), 1238–1248.
Moslonka-Lefebvre, M., Finley, A., Dorigatti, I., Dehnen-Schmutz, K., Harwood, T., Jeger, M. J., & Pautasso, M. (2011). Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries, and continents. Phytopathology, 101(4), 392–403.
Mundt, C. C., & Sackett, K. E. (2012). Spatial scaling relationships for spread of disease caused by a wind-dispersed plant pathogen. Ecosphere, 3(3), 1–10.
Mundt, C. C., Sackett, K. E., Wallace, L. D., Cowger, C., & Dudley, J. P. (2009). Aerial dispersal and multiple-scale spread of epidemic disease. EcoHealth, 6(4), 546–552.
Mundt, C. C., Sackett, K. E., & Wallace, L. D. (2011). Landscape heterogeneity and disease spread: experimental approaches with a plant pathogen. Ecological Applications, 21(2), 321–328.
Newman, M. E. (2003). The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Review, 45(2), 167–256.
Newman, M. (2010). Networks: An introduction. New York: Oxford University Press.
Smith, V. L., Campbell, C. L., Jenkins, S. F., & Benson, D. M. (1988). Effects of host density and number of disease foci on epidemics of southern blight of processing carrot. Phytopathology, 78(5), 595–600.
Sutrave, S., Scoglio, C., Isard, S. A., Hutchinson, J. S., & Garrett, K. A. (2012). Identifying highly connected counties compensates for resource limitations when evaluating national spread of an invasive pathogen. PloS One, 7(6), e37793.
Vandermeer, J., & Rohani, P. (2014). The interaction of regional and local in the dynamics of the coffee rust disease. arXiv at : http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.8247.
Vandermeer, J., Perfecto, I., & Philpott, S. M. (2008). Clusters of ant colonies and robust criticality in a tropical agroecosystem. Nature, 451(7177), 457.
Vandermeer, J., Perfecto, I., & Liere, H. (2009). Evidence for hyperparasitism of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) by the entomogenous fungus, Lecanicillium lecanii through a complex ecological web. Plant Pathology, 58, 636–641.
Vandermeer, J., Jackson, D., & Perfecto, I. (2014). Qualitative dynamics of the coffee rust epidemic: educating the intuition with theoretical ecology. Bioscience, 64, 210–218.
Vanderplank, J. (2012). Principles of plant infection. New York: Elsevier.
Volz, E. M., Miller, J. C., Galvani, A., & Meyers, L. A. (2011). Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics. PLoS Computational Biology, 7(6), e1002042.
Acknowledgements
We wish to thank Finca Irlanda in Chiapas Mexico for permission to work on their farm and Gustavo Lopez and Braulio Chilel for field assistance.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors state that they have no conflict of interests.
Research involving Human Participants and/or Animals
None.
Informed consent
Not relevant.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Vandermeer, J., Hajian-Forooshani, Z. & Perfecto, I. The dynamics of the coffee rust disease: an epidemiological approach using network theory. Eur J Plant Pathol 150, 1001–1010 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-017-1339-x
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-017-1339-x