Abstract
To evaluate the association between worldwide ALS incidence rates and age, using a dose–response meta-analysis. We reviewed Medline and Embase up to July 2016 and included all population-based studies of newly-diagnosed cases, using multiple sources for case ascertainment. A dose–response meta-analysis was performed. A meta-regression investigated potential sources of heterogeneity. Of 3254 articles identified in the literature, we included 41 incidence studies covering 42 geographical areas. Overall, the fit between observed and predicted age-specific rates was very good. The expected variation of ALS incidence with age was characterized, in each study, by a progressive increase in the incidence from the 40s leading to a peak in the 60s or 70s, followed by a sharp decrease. Cochran’s Q test suggested a significant heterogeneity between studies. Overall, estimated patterns of ALS age-specific incidence (at which the peak was reached) were similar among subcontinents of Europe and North America: peak of ALS incidence ranged in these areas between 6.98 and 8.17/100,000 PYFU, which referred to age in the range 71.6–77.4 years. The relationship between age and ALS incidence appeared different for Eastern Asia which was characterized by a peak of ALS incidence at 2.20/100,000 PYFU around 75 years of age. This study confirms the consistency of the age-specific ALS incidence pattern within different subcontinents. Age-specific incidence appears lower in Eastern Asia as compared to Europe and North America.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- ALS:
-
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
- PDC:
-
Parkinson dementia complex
- PD:
-
Parkinson’s disease
- MOOSE:
-
Meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology
- PYFU:
-
Person years of follow-up
References
Beghi E, Logroscino G, Chio A, Hardiman O, Mitchell D, Swingler R, Traynor BJ. The epidemiology of ALS and the role of population-based registries. Biochem Biophys Acta. 2006;1762:1150–7.
Logroscino G, Tortelli R, Rizzo G, Marin B, Preux PM, Malaspina A. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: an aging-related disease. Curr Geriatr Rep. 2015;4:142–53.
Logroscino G, Traynor BJ, Hardiman O, Chio A, Couratier P, Mitchell JD, Swingler RJ, Beghi E. Descriptive epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: new evidence and unsolved issues. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2008;79:6–11.
Marin B, Boumediene F, Logroscino G, Couratier P, Babron MC, Leutenegger AL, Copetti M, Preux PM, Beghi E. Variation in worldwide incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a meta-analysis. Int J Epidemiol. 2017;46:57–74.
Marin B, Logroscino G, Boumediene F, Labrunie A, Couratier P, Babron MC, Leutenegger AL, Preux PM, Beghi E. Clinical and demographic factors and outcome of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in relation to population ancestral origin. Eur J Epidemiol. 2016;31:229–45.
Stroup DF, Berlin JA, Morton SC, Olkin I, Williamson GD, Rennie D, Moher D, Becker BJ, Sipe TA, Thacker SB. Meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology: a proposal for reporting. Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) Group. JAMA. 2000;283:2008–12.
Fiest KM, Pringsheim T, Patten SB, Svenson LW, Jette N. The role of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of incidence and prevalence studies in neuroepidemiology. Neuroepidemiology. 2014;42:16–24.
Mitsumoto H, Chad AD, Pioro EP. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Philadelphia: FA Davis; 1998.
Szklo M. Population-based cohort studies. Epidemiol Rev. 1998;20:81–90.
United Nations Statistics Division. Composition of macro geographical (continental) regions, geographical sub-regions, and selected economic and other groupings. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm. Last Accessed 9 Jan 2015.
Plato CC, Garruto RM, Galasko D, Craig UK, Plato M, Gamst A, Torres JM, Wiederholt W. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and parkinsonism-dementia complex of Guam: changing incidence rates during the past 60 years. Am J Epidemiol. 2003;157:149–57.
Murphy M, Quinn S, Young J, Parkin P, Taylor B. Increasing incidence of ALS in Canterbury, New Zealand: a 22-year study. Neurology. 2008;71:1889–95.
Gunnarsson LG, Lindberg G, Soderfelt B, Axelson O. The mortality of motor neuron disease in Sweden. Arch Neurol. 1990;47:42–6.
Murros K, Fogelholm R. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Middle-Finland: an epidemiological study. Acta Neurol Scand. 1983;67:41–7.
Hudson AJ, Davenport A, Hader WJ. The incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Neurology. 1986;36:1524–8.
Bettini M, Gargiulo-Monachelli GM, Rodriguez G, Rey RC, Peralta LM, Sica RE. Epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients in a centre in Buenos Aires. Arq Neuropsiquiatr. 2011;69:867–70.
Bonaparte JP, Grant IA, Benstead TJ, Murray TJ, Smith M. ALS incidence in Nova Scotia over a 20-year-period: a prospective study. Can J Neurol Sci. 2007;34:69–73.
United Nations. Demographic yearbook. DYB annual issues. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dyb2.htm. Last accessed 9 Jan 2015.
United States Census Bureau. National estimates by age, sex, race: 1900–1979. http://www.census.gov/popest/data/national/asrh/pre-1980/PE-11.html. Last accessed 9 Jan 2015.
Il’yasova D, Hertz-Picciotto I, Peters U, Berlin JA, Poole C. Choice of exposure scores for categorical regression in meta-analysis: a case study of a common problem. Cancer Causes Control. 2005;16:383–8.
Berlin JA, Longnecker MP, Greenland S. Meta-analysis of epidemiologic dose-response data. Epidemiology. 1993;4:218–28.
Greenland S. Quantitative methods in the review of epidemiologic literature. Epidemiol Rev. 1987;9:1–30.
Heinzl H, Mittlböck M. Pseudo R-squared measures for Poisson regression models with over- or underdispersion. Comput Stat Data Anal. 2003;44:253–71.
Fontana A, Spadaro S, Copetti M, Spoto B, Salvemini L, Pizzini P, Frittitta L, Mallamaci F, Pellegrini F, Trischitta V, et al. Association between resistin levels and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: a new study and a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS ONE. 2015;10:e0120419.
van Houwelingen HC, Arends LR, Stijnen T. Advanced methods in meta-analysis: multivariate approach and meta-regression. Stat Med. 2002;21:589–624.
Higgins J, Green S. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions version 5.1.0 [updated March 2011]. The Cochrane Collaboration; 2011. http://www.cochrane-handbook.org/. Last accessed 9 Jan 2015.
Borenstein M, Hedges L, Higgins J, Rothstein H. Introduction to meta-analysis. Chichester: Wiley; 2009.
Uenal H, Rosenbohm A, Kufeldt J, Weydt P, Goder K, Ludolph A, Rothenbacher D, Nagel G, A.L.S.r.S. Group. Incidence and geographical variation of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in Southern Germany–completeness of the ALS registry Swabia. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e93932.
Logroscino G, Traynor BJ, Hardiman O, Chio A, Mitchell D, Swingler RJ, Millul A, Benn E, Beghi E. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Europe. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2010;81:385–90.
Matsumoto N, Worth RM, Kurland LT, Okazaki H. Epidemiologic study of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Hawaii. Identification of high incidence among Filipino men. Neurology. 1972;22:934–40.
Forbes RB, Colville S, Parratt J, Swingler RJ. The incidence of motor nueron disease in Scotland. J Neurol. 2007;254:866–9.
Gross-Paju K, Oopik M, Luus SM, Kalbe I, Puksa L, Lepik T, Kaasik AE. Motor neurone disease in South Estonia. Diagnosis and incidence rate. Acta Neurol Scand. 1998;98:22–8.
O’Toole O, Traynor BJ, Brennan P, Sheehan C, Frost E, Corr B, Hardiman O. Epidemiology and clinical features of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Ireland between 1995 and 2004. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2008;79:30–2.
Marin B, Hamidou B, Couratier P, Nicol M, Delzor A, Raymondeau M, Druet-Cabanac M, Lautrette G, Boumediene F, Preux PM, et al. Population-based epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in an ageing Europe—the French register of ALS in Limousin (FRALim register). Eur J Neurol. 2014;21:1292–300.
Mandrioli J, Biguzzi S, Guidi C, Venturini E, Sette E, Terlizzi E, Ravasio A, Casmiro M, Salvi F, Liguori R, et al. Epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Emilia Romagna Region (Italy): a population based study. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2014;15:262–8.
Bandettini di Poggio M, Sormani MP, Truffelli R, Mandich P, Origone P, Verdiani S, Mantero V, Scialo C, Schenone A, Mancardi GL, et al. Clinical epidemiology of ALS in Liguria, Italy. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2013;14:52–7.
Logroscino G, Beghi E, Zoccolella S, Palagano R, Fraddosio A, Simone IL, Lamberti P, Lepore V, Serlenga L. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in southern Italy: a population based study. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2005;76:1094–8.
Pugliatti M, Parish LD, Cossu P, Leoni S, Ticca A, Saddi MV, Ortu E, Traccis S, Borghero G, Puddu R, et al. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Sardinia, insular Italy, 1995–2009. J Neurol. 2013;260:572–9.
Ragonese P, Cellura E, Aridon P, D’Amelio M, Spataro R, Taiello AC, Maimone D, La Bella V, Savettieri G. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Sicily: a population based study. Amyotroph Lateral Scler. 2012;13:284–7.
McGuire V, Longstreth WT Jr, Koepsell TD, van Belle G. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in three counties in western Washington state. Neurology. 1996;47:571–3.
Radhakrishnan K, Ashok PP, Sridharan R, Mousa ME. Descriptive epidemiology of motor neuron disease in Benghazi, Libya. Neuroepidemiology. 1986;5:47–54.
Fong GC, Cheng TS, Lam K, Cheng WK, Mok KY, Cheung CM, Chim CS, Mak W, Chan KH, Tsang KL, et al. An epidemiological study of motor neuron disease in Hong Kong. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Other Motor Neuron Disord. 2005;6:164–8.
Sajjadi M, Etemadifar M, Nemati A, Ghazavi H, Basiri K, Khoundabi B, Mousavi SA, Kabiri P, Maghzi AH. Epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Isfahan, Iran. Eur J Neurol. 2010;17:984–9.
Imam I, Ball S, Wright D, Hanemann CO, Zajicek J. The epidemiology of motor neurone disease in two counties in the southwest of England. J Neurol. 2010;257:977–81.
Chio A, Mora G, Calvo A, Mazzini L, Bottacchi E, Mutani R. Epidemiology of ALS in Italy: a 10-year prospective population-based study. Neurology. 2009;72:725–31.
Drigo D, Verriello L, Clagnan E, Eleopra R, Pizzolato G, Bratina A, D’Amico D, Sartori A, Mase G, Simonetto M, et al. The incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy, from 2002 to 2009: a retrospective population-based study. Neuroepidemiology. 2013;41:54–61.
Wolf J, Wohrle JC, Palm F, Nix WA, Maschke M, Safer A, Becher H, Grau AJ. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2014;15:269–74.
Beghi E, Millul A, Micheli A, Vitelli E, Logroscino G. Incidence of ALS in Lombardy, Italy. Neurology. 2007;68:141–5.
Freer C, Hylton T, Jordan HM, Kaye WE, Singh S, Huang Y. Results of Florida’s Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Surveillance Project, 2009–2011. BMJ Open. 2015;5:e007359.
Jordan H, Fagliano J, Rechtman L, Lefkowitz D, Kaye W. Population-based surveillance of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in New Jersey, 2009–2011. Neuroepidemiology. 2014;43:49–56.
Jordan H, Rechtman L, Wagner L, Kaye WE. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis surveillance in Baltimore and Philadelphia. Muscle Nerve. 2015;51:815–21.
Valle J, Roberts E, Paulukonis S, Collins N, English P, Kaye W. Epidemiology and surveillance of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in two large metropolitan areas in California. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2015;16:209–15.
Lannuzel A, Mecharles S, Tressieres B, Demoly A, Alhendi R, Hedreville-Tablon MA, Alecu C. Clinical varieties and epidemiological aspects of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe: a new focus of ALS associated with Parkinsonism. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2015;16:216–23.
Pradas J, Puig T, Rojas-Garcia R, Viguera ML, Gich I, Logroscino G, Group A-C. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Catalonia: a population based study. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener. 2013;14:278–83.
Huisman MH, de Jong SW, van Doormaal PT, Weinreich SS, Schelhaas HJ, van der Kooi AJ, de Visser M, Veldink JH, van den Berg LH. Population based epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using capture-recapture methodology. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2011;82:1165–70.
Joensen P. Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the Faroe Islands. Acta Neurol Scand. 2012;126:62–6.
Murros K, Fogelholm R. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Middle-Finland: an epidemiological study. Acta Neurol Scand. 1983;67:41–7.
Højer-Pedersen E, Christensen PB, Jensen NB. Incidence and prevalence of motor neuron disease in two Danish counties. Neuroepidemiology. 1989;8:151–9.
Annegers JF, Appel S, Lee JRJ, Perkins P. Incidence and prevalence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Harris County, Texas, 1985–1988. Arch Neurol. 1991;48:589–93.
Forsgren L, Almay BGL, Holmgren G, Wall S. Epidemiology of motor neuron disease in northern Sweden. Acta Neurol Scand. 1983;68:20–9.
Lai CH, Tseng HF. Epidemiology and medical expenses of motor neuron diseases in Taiwan. Neuroepidemiology. 2008;31:159–66.
Okumura H. Epidemiological and clinical patterns of western pacific amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in Guam and sporadic ALS in Rochester, Minnesota, U.S.A. and Hokkaido, Japan: a comparative study. Hokkaido Igaku Zasshi. 2003;78:187–95.
Vazquez MC, Ketzoian C, Legnani C, Rega I, Sanchez N, Perna A, Penela M, Aguirrezabal X, Druet-Cabanac M, Medici M. Incidence and prevalence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Uruguay: a population-based study. Neuroepidemiology. 2008;30:105–11.
Sorenson EJ, Stalker AP, Kurland LT, Windebank AJ. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1925 to 1998. Neurology. 2002;59:280–2.
Abhinav K, Stanton B, Johnston C, Hardstaff J, Orrell RW, Howard R, Clarke J, Sakel M, Ampong MA, Shaw CE, et al. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in South-East England: a population-based study. The South-East England register for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (SEALS Registry). Neuroepidemiology. 2007;29:44–8.
Scialo C, Novi G, Bandettini di Poggio M, Canosa A, Sormani MP, Mandich P, Origone P, Truffelli R, Mancardi GL, Caponnetto C. Clinical epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Liguria, Italy: an update of LIGALS register. Amyotroph Lateral Scler Frontotemporal Degener 2016;17:535–542.
Lee JR, Annegers JF, Appel SH. Prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and the effect of referral selection. J Neurol Sci. 1995;132:207–15.
Sorenson EJ, Mandrekar J, Crum B, Stevens JC. Effect of referral bias on assessing survival in ALS. Neurology. 2007;68:600–2.
Logroscino G, Beghi E, Hardiman O, Chio A, Mitchell JD, Swingler RJ, Traynor B. Effect of referral bias on assessing survival in ALS. Neurology. 2007;69:939 (author reply 939–940).
Marin B, Hamidou B, Couratier P, Nicol M, Delzor A, Raymondeau M, Druet-Cabanac M, Lautrette G, Boumediene F, Preux PM, et al. Population-based epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in an ageing Europe—the French register of ALS in Limousin (FRALim register). Eur J Neurol. 2014;21:1292–300.
Forbes RB, Colville S, Swingler RJ. The epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS/MND) in people aged 80 or over. Age Ageing. 2004;33:131–4.
Forbes RB, Colville S, Swingler RJ, A.L.S.M.N.D.R. Scottish. The epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS/MND) in people aged 80 or over. Age Ageing. 2004;33:131–4.
Dandaba M, Couratier P, Labrunie A, Nicol M, Hamidou B, Raymondeau M, Logroscino G, Preux PM, Marin B, Consortium F. Characteristics and prognosis of oldest old subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Neuroepidemiology. 2017;49:64–73.
Cronin S, Hardiman O, Traynor BJ. Ethnic variation in the incidence of ALS: a systematic review. Neurology. 2007;68:1002–7.
Acknowledgements
We thank the following main authors or co-authors of population-based articles who answered to our solicitation and for the useful material for incidence standardization or phenotype characterization that they were able to provide: Kari Murros, Poul Joensen, Raeburn Forbes, Robert Swingler (the Scottish MND Register is funded by MND Scotland and supported by the Anne Rowling Regenerative Neurology Clinic), Ibrahim Imam, James Rooney, Albert Ludolph, Gabriele Nagel, Marwa Elamin, Orla Hardiman, Mark Heverin, Mark Huisman, Joachim Wolf, Adriano Chio, Federica Pisa, Jessica Mandrioli, Monica Bandettini, Stefano Zocollela, Maura Pugliatti, Leslie Parish, Paolo Ragonese, Valerie Mc Guire, Will Longstreth, Eric J. Sorenson, Farrah Mateen, James D. Bonaparte, Cristina Vazquez, Carlos Ketzoian, Kurupath Radhakrishnan, Chien-Hsu Lai, Chung Yan G Fong, Hitoshi Okumura, Tameko Kihira, Bruce Taylor and A Lannuzel. We thank Paul Mehta, Heather Jordan and Jhaqueline Valle for providing data to calculate US incidence. The data came from surveillance projects funded by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry’s (ATSDR) National ALS Registry [www.cdc.gov/als] (Contract #200-2009-32577 and Contract #200-2010-F-36614). We also thank Walter Rocca and Brandon R. Grossardt for the detailed data on Olmsted county population with which they provided us, and Hidenao Sasaki, Robert Miller and Eric Denys as contact persons. We thank Vanna Pistotti for her advice during the literature search, as well as Mineko Terao, Lorenzo Moja and Claudio Pelucchi. We thank Limoges teaching hospital for its grant initiative for mobility. We thank Sylvie Gautier for English editing and Emilio G Gumiel for technical support.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
eFigure 1. Flow chart eligibility criteria of articles on ALS age-specific incidence (TIFF 29883 kb)
10654_2018_392_MOESM2_ESM.pdf
eFigure 2. ALS age-specific incidences reported in each original report (/100,000PYFU, point estimates) along with the estimation of the age-specific incidence curves estimated by the random effect dose–response meta-analysis. (2.a Northern Europe, 2.b Western Europe, 2.c Southern Europe, 2.d NorthernAmerica, 2.e East Asia, 2.f Other subcontinents) (PDF 994 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Marin, B., Fontana, A., Arcuti, S. et al. Age-specific ALS incidence: a dose–response meta-analysis. Eur J Epidemiol 33, 621–634 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-018-0392-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-018-0392-x