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Evolutionary Climate-Change Modelling: A Multi-Agent Climate-Economic Model

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Abstract

In climate-economic modelling, agent-based models are still an exception. Although numerous authors have discussed the usefulness of the approach, only a few models exist. The paper proposes an update to a multi-agent climate-economic model, namely the “battle of perspectives” (Janssen, 1996; Janssen and de Vries 1998). The approach of the paper is twofold. First, the reimplementation of the model follows the “model to model” concept. Supporters of the approach argue that replication is a useful way to check a model’s accuracy and robustness. Second, updating a model with current data and new scientific evidence is a robustness check in itself. The long-term validity and usefulness of a model depends on the variability of the data on which it is based, as well as on the model’s sensitivity to data changes. By offering this update, the paper contributes to the development of agent-based models in climate-economics. Acknowledging evolutionary processes in climate-policy represents a useful complement to intertemporal cost-benefit analyses, the latter of which derive optimal protection paths but are not able to explain why people do not follow them. Since the replication and update succeeded, the paper recommends using the model as a basis for further analysis.

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Fig. 1

Source Janssen and de Vries (1998, 55)

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Source Janssen and de Vries (1998, 56)

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Source Janssen and de Vries (1998, 59)

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Source Janssen and de Vries (1998, 61)

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Source Janssen and de Vries (1998, 60)

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Notes

  1. “Fatalists”, constituting the fourth type, are usually exempted from analysis because they do not engage actively in a specific behaviour (believing it to be useless) and are thus excluded from or uninterested in political processes (Martens and Rotmans 1999).

  2. Parameter and starting value specifications will be given below in Table 1.

  3. The corresponding figures can be verified in Table 2. It is placed in the next section, because it relies partly on the updated data explained in this latter part of the paper.

  4. Arifovic (1991, 1994), Andreoni and Miller (1995), Birchenhall (1995), Dawid (1999) and Geisendorf (2009, 2011).

  5. For a thorough description of the modelling details of genetic algorithms, other sources should be consulted (e.g. Goldberg 1989; Mitchell 1997; Geisendorf 2011), but please note that the algorithm used herein works with full imitation, not with a recombination of strategies.

  6. In the original model, Janssen (1996) mentions having placed 50 agents in the learning model. However, when illustrating the shifts in their proportions, 10% of the agents are initialised as belonging to the two minority groups (Janssen 1996, 224–226). As it is not possible to include 2.5 agents per perspective, the present paper woks with 60 agents, including three agents for each minority group. Note, however, that the total number of agents is not decisive for the results.

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  1. Chair of Environment and Economics, ESCP Europe Berlin, Heubnerweg 8-10, 14059, Berlin, Germany

    Sylvie Geisendorf

  2. Research Center SustBusy (Business and Society - Towards a Sustainable World), ESCP Europe Berlin, Heubnerweg 8-10, 14059, Berlin, Germany

    Sylvie Geisendorf

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Geisendorf, S. Evolutionary Climate-Change Modelling: A Multi-Agent Climate-Economic Model. Comput Econ 52, 921–951 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-017-9740-2

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