Abstract
Greenhouse gas (GHG) and pollutant emissions are closely related to the economic structure. Most of the existing studies focused on single type of emissions and cannot provide guidance for co-controlling multiple emissions. Here, we provide an improved elasticity method based on input-output model that relates both supply and demand side at high resolution, evaluated for GHG emissions, local air pollution, solid waste, health, water quality, and economy-wide welfare metrics. The method allows to identify high-resolution structural adjustment intervention points that combine reduction in GHG emission and local environmental damage with stable performance in economy-wide welfare. Investigating the Chinese economy, our results show that key leverage points for simultaneously reducing GHG and local pollutants include electricity inputs of various industries, building materials inputs of housing construction, and fertilizer inputs of agriculture. Therefore, emerging political interventions include reducing the fertilizer use in agriculture, improving the electricity efficiency in raw chemical materials manufacturing and in the metal products industry, and saving inputs of steel, cement, and other building materials in construction, e.g., by transition to prefabricated or 3D printing construction. Urban households can reshape final demand by moderating electricity consumption and adjusting investments in real estate. Reduced export of low-value added steel and metal products would further improve environment and contribute to global climate change mitigation.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
The CO2 emission inventory in the CEADs database is compiled according to the energy data of the China Bureau of Statistics, and the sector classification is consistent with the input and output table adopted by this study. Therefore, the CO2 emission data in this study are preferred.
Two key points need to be emphasized in the mapping process between GAINS activities and Chinese IO sectors. One is that according to the activity description in GAINS, notes on the classification of national economy sectors in China, Chinese greenhouse gas compilation guidelines, and combining the advice of experts in various industry fields, we identified the sector where each activity takes place. For example, “Agglomeration plant-pellets” activity belongs to “Ferrous metals” sector, and “Other cattle” activity belongs to “Animal products” sector. Another point is that some activities take place in more than one sector (e.g., “Industrial furnaces” activity will need to be matched with multiple sectors using industrial furnaces); in this case, we used a strong hypothesis that various sectors have same emission intensity (emissions per unit of output). Thus, we decomposed these activities into multiple sectors according to their output level.
The author calculates from the following data sources: National Bureau of Statistics, GAINS database, and CEADs database.
According to the classification and interpretation of national economy industry, the products in heat of production and supply industry mainly include steam and hot water, and the business includes the supply and sales of steam and hot water and the maintenance and management of heating facilities. The downstream are final consumers, and the heat are mainly used for winter heating in northern heating areas. And electricity is used for all aspects of production and life, so the consumption of electricity and heat production and supply industry here mainly refers to electricity consumption.
The direct electricity consumption during the production and supply of electricity and heat (e_h→e_h) is not considered as input data do not allow for disentangling transmission and distribution electricity requirements from electricity at production. In detail, according to the results, the transaction (e_h→e_h) has the largest elasticity for GHGs and other air pollutants emissions. However, this is mainly due to the statistical reason. Since 2002, China has implemented a power system reform policy of separating the power generation side from the power grid side; thus, the self-use electricity and transmission and distribution cannot be separated in the input-output table, which is a main reason for the significantly larger elasticity. Moreover, transmission and distribution account for the majority of the value. Therefore, we would not discuss these transactions here.
The effects on employment have also been calculated. However, this effect is less than 0.02% in most cases thus is not shown in the figures, but will be mentioned in the text whenever necessary.
It should be noted that China only imposes a carbon tax on the electricity sector, and the agricultural sector is exempt from environmental tax. According to Figure 3, the tax incentives for the agricultural sector and the steel sector are significantly less than are the results at the present stage, but the tax incentives for the electricity sector and the other remaining sectors are not significantly reduced.
References
Ahmad S, Pachauri S, Creutzig FJERL (2017) Synergies and trade-offs between energy-efficient urbanization and health. Environ Res Lett 12:114017
Ambec S, Coria J (2018) Policy spillovers in the regulation of multiple pollutants. J Environ Econ Manag 87:114–134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.05.011
Bruvoll A, Medin H (2003) Factors behind the environmental Kuznets curve A decomposition of the changes in air pollution. Environ Resource Econ 24:27–48
Bruynab S, Berghab JCJM, Opschoorac JB (1998) Economic growth and emissions_ reconsidering the empirical basis of environmental Kuznets curves. Ecol Econ 25:161–175
Cao G, Feng C, Tao RJC, Economy W (2008) Local “land finance” in China’s urban expansion: challenges and solutions. China World Econ 16:19–30
CEADs (2012) CO2 emission inventory (by IPCC Sectoral Approach) http://www.ceadsnet/. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
Chae Y (2010) Co-benefit analysis of an air quality management plan and greenhouse gas reduction strategies in the Seoul metropolitan area. Environ Sci Pol 13:205–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.01.003
CPGPRC (2018) Reports of the 19th National Congress http://www.govcn/zhuanti/19thcpc/baogaohtm. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
Creutzig F, Agoston P, Goldschmidt JC, Luderer G, Nemet G, Pietzcker RC (2017) The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change. Nat Energy 2:16140
Creutzig F et al (2016) Urban infrastructure choices structure climate solutions Nature. Climate Change 6:1054–1056
Creutzig F, Goldschmidt JC (2008) Energy, might, reason. Comprehensive view on energy change; Energie, Macht, Vernunft. Der umfassende Blick auf die Energiewende
de Freitas LC, Kaneko S (2011) Decomposing the decoupling of CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil. Ecol Econ 70:1459–1469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.02.011
Deng H-M, Liang Q-M, Liu L-J, Anadon LD (2017) Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation: a review and classification by type, mitigation sector, and geography. Environ Res Lett 12:123001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98d2
Dirtzenbacher E, Los B (1998) Structural decomposition techniques: sense and sensitivity. Econ Syst Res 10:307–323
Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Kadner S, Minx JC, Brunner S (2014) Technical summary. IPCC Working Group III Contribution to AR5, In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
Fan Q, Zhou X, Liu J (2015) Double dividend of carbon intensity : environmental quality improvement and sustainable economic growth China. Populat Resources Environ 25:62–71
Fotourehchi Z (2016) Health effects of air pollution: an empirical analysis for developing countries. Atmos Pollut Res 7:201–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2015.08.011
Fujii H, Managi S, Kaneko S (2013) Decomposition analysis of air pollution abatement in China: empirical study for ten industrial sectors from 1998 to 2009. J Clean Prod 59:22–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.06.059
Fullerton D, Karney DH (2018) Multiple pollutants, co-benefits, and suboptimal environmental policies. J Environ Econ Manag 87:52–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2017.08.003
GAINS (2011) Mitigation of air pollutants and greenhouse gases program Retrieved March 28, 2011, from International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (http://www.gains.iiasa.ac.at/models/gains_models3.html). Accessed 15 Jul 2021
Grossman GM, Krueger AB (1995) Economic growth and the environment. Q J Econ 110:353–377
Grubler A et al (2018) A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies. Nat Energy 3:515–527
Hammar H, Löfgren Å (2010) Explaining adoption of end of pipe solutions and clean technologies—determinants of firms’ investments for reducing emissions to air in four sectors in Sweden. Energy Policy 38:3644–3651. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.041
Kalkuhl M, Milan BF, Schwerhoff G, Jakob M, Hahnen M, Creutzig FJLUP (2018) Can land taxes foster sustainable development? An assessment of fiscal, distributional and implementation issues. Land Use Policy 78:338–352
Li X (2017) Respond challenges positively to promote healthy development of international steel trade. Ironmak Steelmak 52:1–4 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.13228/j.boyuan.issn0449-749x.20160579
Liang Q-M, Deng H-M, Liu M (2016) Co-control of CO 2 emissions and local pollutants in China: the perspective of adjusting final use behaviors. J Clean Prod 131:198–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.05.048
Lin B, Liu C (2016) Why is electricity consumption inconsistent with economic growth in China? Energy Policy 88:310–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.031
Lin B, Long H (2016) Emissions reduction in China’s chemical industry - based on LMDI. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 53:1348–1355. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.09.045
Liu LJ, Liang QM (2017) Changes to pollutants and carbon emission multipliers in China 2007-2012: an input-output structural decomposition analysis. J Environ Manag 203:76–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.07.061
Llop M (2007) Economic structure and pollution intensity within the environmental input–output framework. Energy Policy 35:3410–3417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.12.015
Mattauch L, Creutzig F, Edenhofer O (2015) Avoiding carbon lock-in: policy options for advancing structural change. Econ Model 50:49–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.06.002
MEPPRC (2016) The 13th Five-Year Plan for Ecological and Environmental Protection vol http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2016-12/05/content_5143290.htm. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
Milan BF, Kapfer D, Creutzig FJLUP (2016) A systematic framework of location value taxes reveals dismal policy design in most European countries. Land Use Policy 51:335–349
Miller RE, Blair PD (2009) Input-output analysis: foundations and extensions. (Chapter2: Foundations of input-output analysis). Cambridge university press, New York
Minx JC, Baiocchi G, Peters GP, Weber CL, Guan D, Hubacek KJEs, technology (2011) A “carbonizing dragon”: China’s fast growing CO2 emissions revisited. Environ Sci Technol 45:9144–9153
Nansai K, Inaba R, Kagawa S, Moriguchi Y (2008) Identifying common features among household consumption patterns optimized to minimize specific environmental burdens. J Clean Prod 16:538–548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2007.01.008
NBSPRC (2012a) Environmental Statistics http://www.statsgovcn/ztjc/ztsj/hjtjzl/. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
NBSPRC (2012b) Input-output table in 2012 http://www.statsgovcn/. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
NDRC (2016) The strategic emerging industry key product and service guidance catalogue (2016 version). https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/gg/201702/t20170204_961174.html. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
NDRC (2018) The 13th five-year plan for the development of foreign trade. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2017-01/09/content_5158270.htm. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
NHFPC (2016) The Chinese Dietary Guidelines http://www.dgcnsocorg/article/2016bhtml#. Accessed 15 Jul 2021
Ni H, Li S, He J (2012) Calculation of CO_2 Embodied in International Trade and Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Influencing. Fact Res Environ Sci 25:103–108
Niu S, Liu Y, Ding Y, Qu W (2016) China’s energy systems transformation and emissions peak. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 58:782–795. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.274
Qi T, Weng Y, Zhang X, He J (2016) An analysis of the driving factors of energy-related CO 2 emission reduction in China from 2005 to 2013. Energy Econ 60:15–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.014
Ren S, Fu X, Chen X (2012) Regional variation of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions mitigation in China. China Econ Rev 23:1134–1145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2012.08.003
Stern DJ (2002) Explaining changes in global sulfur emissions: an econometric decomposition approach. Ecol Econ 42:201–220
Su B, Ang BW (2012) Structural decomposition analysis applied to energy and emissions: some methodological developments. Energy Econ 34:177–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.10.009
Swart R, Amann M, Raes F, Tuinstra W (2004) A good climate for clean air: Linkages between climate change and air pollution. Clim Chang 66:263–269
Tarancón MÁ, del Río P (2007) CO2 emissions and intersectoral linkages. The case of Spain. Energy Policy 35:1100–1116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.018
Wang J-W, Liao H, Tang B-J, Ke R-Y, Wei Y-M (2017) Is the CO2 emissions reduction from scale change, structural change or technology change? Evidence from non-metallic sector of 11 major economies in 1995-2009. J Clean Prod 148:148–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.01.123
Wilson C, Grubler A, Gallagher KS, Nemet GF (2012) Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection. Nat Clim Chang 2:780–788
Zhang H, Lahr ML (2014) Can the Carbonizing Dragon be Domesticated? Insights from a decomposition of energy consumption and intensity in china, 1987-2007. Econ Syst Res 26:119–140. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2014.880663
Zhang J, Li H (2013) Analysis on structure foundation and its index measurement for the excess capacity of construction industry. J Xi'an Univ Architecture Technol 45:105–110 (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.15986/j.1006-7930.2013.01.011
Zhang J, Li H, Zhou T (2012) Research on measure and countermeasure of overcapacity in China’s construction industry. Sci Technol Progress Policy 29:44–47 (in Chinese)
Zheng J, Zhang L, Che W, Zheng Z, Yin S (2009) A highly resolved temporal and spatial air pollutant emission inventory for the Pearl River Delta region, China and its uncertainty assessment. Atmos Environ 43:5112–5122
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from National Natural Science Foundation of China (72074022, 71422011, and 71521002), National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0602600) and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2020M680398).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, LJ., Liang, QM., Creutzig, F. et al. Electricity end-use and construction activity are key leverage points for co-controlling greenhouse gases and local pollution in China. Climatic Change 167, 19 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03167-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03167-0