Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The probable effect of climate change on the water available for use in Bangladesh is not well known. We calculate monthly water balances for five main regions of Bangladesh to examine the likely impacts of climate change to 2050. We also examine the impact of past and potential future irrigation development. Climate change projections for rainfall in Bangladesh are uncertain, with increased rain in the wet season likely, but decreased rain also possible. Runoff is projected to vary in a manner similar to rainfall. However, assuming no change to the area of crops, all projections result in increases in irrigation water use, which leads to groundwater level declines. The impact of change (whether climate change or development) on water availability and use is greater in the Northwest region than elsewhere. For most water balance terms in most regions, irrigation development (both historic and future) is calculated to have a larger impact than climate change. Climate change is calculated to have a larger impact than irrigation development only on evapotranspiration and runoff, and possibly on groundwater levels. Model sensitivity tests suggest that model uncertainty is less than climate change uncertainty. To reverse lowered groundwater levels, Bangladesh’s policy includes greater use of surface water. While we calculate groundwater levels will rise, the viability of the policy may be affected by future changes to upstream use.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. The 18 GCMs were ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1–1, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3–6-0, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

References

  • Ahmad MD, Kirby M, Islam MS, Hossain MJ, Islam MM (2014) Groundwater use for irrigation and its productivity: status and opportunities for crop intensification to achieve food security in Bangladesh. Water Resour Manag 28(5):1415–1429. doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0560-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ali MH, Abustan I, Rahman MA, Haque AAM (2012) Sustainability of groundwater resources in the Northeastern region of Bangladesh. Water Resour Manag 26:623–641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop Evapotranspiration: Guide-lines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. FAO Irrigation and DrainagePaper 56. FAO, Rome

  • Gain AK, Immerzeel WW, Sperna Weiland FC, Bierkens MFP (2011) Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modeling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 15:1537–1545

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gain AK, Apel H, Renaud FG, Giupponi C (2013) Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact - the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin. Clim Chang 120:463–475

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gain AK, Giupponi C (2014) Impact of the Farakka Dam on thresholds of the hydrologic flow regime in the Lower Ganges River Basin (Bangladesh). Water 6:2501–2518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gain AK, Wada Y (2014) Assessment of future water scarcity at different spatial and temporal scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin. Water Resour Manag 28:999–1012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gain AK, Giupponi C (2015) A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk in the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin: An integrated approach. Ecol Indic 48:120–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Government of Bangladesh (2010) Perspective Plan of Bangladesh 2010–2021: Making Vision 2021 a Reality. General Economic Division, Planning Commission, Government of The People’s Republic of Bangladesh http://wwwplancommgovbd/upload/2014/Perspective%20Plan/Perspective%20Plan_Finalpdf Accessed July 2104

  • Islam MT, Masud MS, Afzal Hossain AFM (2014) Scope for Groundwater Development in North West Region of Bangladesh. IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering 11 (3, Ver. VIII): 38–44. Available at http://www.iosrjournals.org/iosr-jmce/papers/vol11-issue3/Version-8/F011383844.pdf. Accessed November 2014

  • Jeuland M, Harshadeep N, Escurra J, Blackmore D, Sadoff C (2013) Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin. Water Policy 15:26–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karimi P, Bastiaanssen WGM, Molden D (2013) Water Accounting plus (WA+) - a water accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 17:2459–2472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirby M, Ahmad MD, Poulton P, Zhu Z, Lee G, Mainuddin M (2013) Review of water, crop production and system modelling approaches for food security studies in the Eastern Gangetic Plains. CSIRO Report, AusAID - CSIRO Alliance. Available at https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?pid=csiro:EP134291

  • Kirby M, Ahmad MD, Mainuddin M, Palash W, Qadir ME, Shah-Newaz SM, Hossain MN (2015) The impact of irrigation development on regional groundwater resources in Bangladesh. Agr Water Manage 159:264–276. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2015.05.026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar CP (2012) Climate change and its impact on groundwater resources. International Journal of Engineering and Science 1:43–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Mainuddin M, Kirby M (2015) Food security in Bangladesh to 2050. Food Security 7:633–646. doi:10.1007/s12571-015-0465-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mainuddin M, Kirby M, Chowdhury RAR, Shah-Newaz SM (2015) Spatial and temporal variations of, and the impact of climate change on, the dry season crop irrigation requirements in Bangladesh. Irrigation Sci 33:107–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Masood M, Yeh PJ-F, Hanasaki N, Takeuchi K (2015) Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 19:747–770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molden D, Sakthivadivel R (1999) Water Accounting to Assess Use and Productivity of Water. Int J Water Resour D 15:55–71

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moors EJ, Groot A, Biemans H, van Sceltinga CT, Siderius C, Stoffel M, Huggel C, Wiltshire A, Mathison C, Ridley J, Jacob D, Kumar P, Bhadwal S, Gosina A, Collins DN (2011) Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India. Environ Sci Pol 14:758–769

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morton FI (1983) Operational estimates of areal evapotranspiration and their significance to the science and practice of hydrology. J Hydrol 66:1–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mullick MRA, Babel MS, Perret SR (2013) Marginal benefit based optimal water allocation: case of Teesta River, Bangladesh. Water Policy 15:126–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mulligan M, Fisher M, Sharma B, Xu Z, Ringler C, Mahe G, Jarvis A, Ramirez J, Clanet JC, Ogilvie A, Ahmad MD (2011) The nature and impact of climate change in the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) basins. Water Int 36:96–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pervez MS, Henebry GM (2015) Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin. Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies 3:285–311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Riahi K, Rao S, Krey V, Cho C, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rajaf P (2011) RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim Chang 109:33–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2010) Recent trends in the climate of Bangladesh. Clim Res 42:185–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Hazarika MK (2010) Groundwater drought in the Northwestern districts of Bangladesh. Water Resour Manag 24:1989–2006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S (2011) Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in Northwest Bangladesh. Clim Chang 105:433–453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shah T (2009) Climate change and groundwater: India's opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. Environ Res Lett 4:035005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaikh MNU, Mostafa MG, Sheikh MAH, Hassan MZ (2012) Analyses of the pre and post Farakka rainfall and water discharge patter of the River Ganges (Bangladesh portion) and its impact on the environment. Rajshahi University Journal of Environmental Science 2:23–34

    Google Scholar 

  • Shamsudduha M, Chandler RE, Taylor R, Ahmed KM (2009) Recent trends in groundwater levels in a highly seasonal hydrological system: the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 13:2373–2385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shamsudduha M, Taylor R, Ahmed KM, Zahid A (2011) The impact of intensive groundwater abstraction on recharge to a shallow aquifer system: evidence from Bangladesh. Hydrogeoll J 19:901–916

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma BR, Ambili G (2009) Impact of climate change on water resources and potential adaptations for agriculture in the Indus-Gangetic Basin. ICID 5th Asian Regional Conference, 6-11 December 2009, New Delhi, India Available at http://www.tmdholakia.com/data/delhi/2-c.d.%20Proceedings/Data/docs/83.pdf. Accessed March 2013

  • Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond-Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE, Edmonds JA (2011) RCP4. 5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Chang 109:77–94

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WARPO (2001) National Water Management Plan. Water Resources Planning Organisation, Ministry Of Water Resources, Government of Bangladesh. Volume no 2, Main report. Available at http://www.warpo.gov.bd/nwmp.html. Accessed June 2013

  • World Bank (2010) Economics of adaptation to climate change: Bangladesh. Washington, DC. Available at http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/06/25/000356161_20120625011408/Rendered/PDF/702660v10ESW0P0IC000EACC0Bangladesh.pdf. Accessed August 2015

  • Yu W, Alam M, Hassan M, Khan AS, Ruane AC, Rosenzweig C, Major DC, Thurlow T (2010) Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh. Earthscan, London, 144 pp

Download references

Acknowledgments

The study was funded by the CSIRO – DFAT Australian Aid Research for Development Alliance.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

    J. M. Kirby, M. Mainuddin, F. Mpelasoka & M. D. Ahmad

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology Uttara, Dhaka, 1230, Bangladesh

    M.E. Quadir

  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Boston, MA, 02155, USA

    W. Palash

  4. Institute of Water Modelling, Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1206, Bangladesh

    S. M. Shah-Newaz & M. M. Hossain

Authors
  1. J. M. Kirby
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. Mainuddin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. F. Mpelasoka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. D. Ahmad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. W. Palash
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. M.E. Quadir
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. S. M. Shah-Newaz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. M. M. Hossain
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. M. Kirby.

Electronic Supplementary Material

ESM 1

(DOCX 177 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kirby, J.M., Mainuddin, M., Mpelasoka, F. et al. The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh. Climatic Change 135, 481–491 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1597-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1597-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation