Abstract
The four species of tuna that underpin oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific (skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye and albacore tuna) deliver great economic and social benefits to Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs). Domestic tuna fleets and local fish processing operations contribute 3–20 % to gross domestic product in four PICTs and licence fees from foreign fleets provide an average of 3–40 % of government revenue for seven PICTs. More than 12,000 people are employed in tuna processing facilities and on tuna fishing vessels. Fish is a cornerstone of food security for many PICTs and provides 50–90 % of dietary animal protein in rural areas. Several PICTs have plans to (1) increase the benefits they receive from oceanic fisheries by increasing the amount of tuna processed locally, and (2) allocate more tuna for the food security of their rapidly growing populations. The projected effects of climate change on the distribution of tuna in the tropical Pacific Ocean, due to increases in sea surface temperature, changes in velocity of major currents and decreases in nutrient supply to the photic zone from greater stratification, are likely to affect these plans. PICTs in the east of the region with a high dependence on licence fees for government revenue are expected to receive more revenue as tuna catches increase in their exclusive economic zones. On the other hand, countries in the west may encounter problems securing enough fish for their canneries as tuna are redistributed progressively to the east. Changes in the distribution of tuna will also affect the proportions of national tuna catches required for food security. We present priority adaptations to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries posed by climate change and to capitalise on opportunities.
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Notes
Projections for the B1 emissions scenario in 2100 were used as a surrogate for A2 in 2050, noting that the multi−model mean of sea surface temperature is 0.18 (±0.23)°C higher under B1 2100 than A2 2050 (Bell et al. 2011a).
Average is based on fisheries production of 3 tonnes per km2 of coral reef per year (Pratchett et al. 2011) but does not include estimates for Pitcairn Islands.
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Acknowledgments
We thank the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) for the support to undertake this assessment and the sponsors of the International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries in Cook Islands for the opportunity to present the results to the region. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for constructive suggestions to improve the manuscript and Carla Appel for preparing Fig. 1.
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This article is part of the Special Issue on "Climate and Oceanic Fisheries" with Guest Editor James Salinger.
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Bell, J.D., Reid, C., Batty, M.J. et al. Effects of climate change on oceanic fisheries in the tropical Pacific: implications for economic development and food security. Climatic Change 119, 199–212 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0606-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0606-2