Abstract
An existing Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for the Central North Pacific was updated and modified to focus on the area used by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. The EwE model was combined with output from a coupled NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate and biogeochemical model to investigate the likely ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate-induced primary productivity changes. Four simulations were conducted based on 2 fishing effort and climate scenarios from 2010 to 2100. Modeled small and large phytoplankton biomass decreased by 10 % and 20 % respectively, resulting in a 10 % decline in the total biomass of all higher trophic level groups combined. Climate impacts also affected the Hawaii longline fishery, with a 25–29 % reduction in modeled target species yield. Climate impacts on the ecosystem and the fishery were partially mitigated by a drop in fishing effort. Scenarios with a 50 % reduction in fishing effort partially restored longline target species yield to current levels, and decreased longline non-target species yield. These model results suggest that a further reduction in fishery landings mortality over time than the 2010 level may be necessary to mitigate climate impacts and help sustain yields of commercially preferred fish species targeted by the Hawaii longline fishery through the 21st century.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge Villy Christensen, Carl Walters, Christofer Boggs, Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats, Keith Bigelow, Pierre Kleiber, Megan Duncan, Michael Seki, Matthew Parry, Charles Stock, Joe Buszowski, and Kelly Kearney for productive discussions and/or Ecopath assistance. The authors would also like to thank Evgeny Pakhomov and Brian Hunt from the University of British Columbia, Brian Popp, Anela Choy, and Jeff Drazen from the University of Hawaii, Peter Williams and Colin Millar of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community, John Childers of the NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Dean Courtney of the NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, and Kevin Piner and Brent Miyamoto of the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center for assistance in obtaining data and model parameter estimates. This research was conducted with partial support and as part of the NOAA Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, as well as funding under NA10NMF4520325 to CW.
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This article is part of the Special Issue on “Climate and Oceanic Fisheries” with Guest Editor James Salinger.
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Howell, E.A., Wabnitz, C.C.C., Dunne, J.P. et al. Climate-induced primary productivity change and fishing impacts on the Central North Pacific ecosystem and Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. Climatic Change 119, 79–93 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0597-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0597-z