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An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate

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Abstract

The analysis of possible regional climate changes over Europe as simulated by 10 regional climate models within the context of PRUDENCE requires a careful investigation of possible systematic biases in the models. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the main model systematic biases vary across the different models. Two fundamental aspects of model validation are addressed here: the ability to simulate (1) the long-term (30 or 40 years) mean climate and (2) the inter-annual variability. The analysis concentrates on near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land and focuses mainly on winter and summer. In general, there is a warm bias with respect to the CRU data set in these extreme seasons and a tendency to cold biases in the transition seasons. In winter the typical spread (standard deviation) between the models is 1 K. During summer there is generally a better agreement between observed and simulated values of inter-annual variability although there is a relatively clear signal that the modeled temperature variability is larger than suggested by observations, while precipitation variability is closer to observations. The areas with warm (cold) bias in winter generally exhibit wet (dry) biases, whereas the relationship is the reverse during summer (though much less clear, coupling warm (cold) biases with dry (wet) ones). When comparing the RCMs with their driving GCM, they generally reproduce the large-scale circulation of the GCM though in some cases there are substantial differences between regional biases in surface temperature and precipitation.

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Author notes

  1. Sonia I. Seneviratne

    Present address: Institut for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr.53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Daniela Jacob & Stefan Hagemann

  2. Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Ole Bøssing Christensen & Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen

  3. Institut for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland

    Martin Hirschi & Christoph Schär

  4. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Sonia I. Seneviratne

  5. Rossby Centre, SMHI, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden

    Lars Bärring & Erik Kjellström

  6. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 3730 AE, de Bilt, The Netherlands

    Geert Lenderink, Aad van Ulden & Bart van den Hurk

  7. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Strasse, 21502, Geesthacht, Germany

    Burkhardt Rockel

  8. Météo-France CNRM, 42 av. Gaspard Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex, France

    Michel Déqué & Samuel Somot

  9. Met Office Hadley Centre (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

    Richard Jones

  10. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, P. O. BOX 586, 34100, Trieste, Italy

    Filippo Giorgi

  11. Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Avda. Carlos III s/n, 45071, Toledo, Spain

    Manuel de Castro & Enrique Sánchez

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  1. Daniela Jacob
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  2. Lars Bärring
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  16. Sonia I. Seneviratne
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  18. Aad van Ulden
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Jacob, D., Bärring, L., Christensen, O.B. et al. An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Climatic Change 81 (Suppl 1), 31–52 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4

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