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Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions

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Abstract

There is ample evidence for species distributional changes in response to recent climate change, but most studies are biased toward better known taxa. Thus, an integrated approach is needed that includes the “cryptic diversity” represented partly by lichens, which are among the most sensitive organisms to environmental change due to their physiological characteristics. The use of functional traits and ecological attributes may improve the interpretation of how species respond to climate change. Thus, we quantified the future climate change impacts on 41 lichen species distributed in the Iberian Peninsula using ensemble climatic suitability maps (derived from generalized linear and generalized additive models, and classification and regression tree analysis) and different metrics. We also determined the lichen traits/attributes that might be related to a shared response to climate change. The results indicated a loss of bioclimatic space for 75% of the species studied and an increase for 10 species, especially in Mediterranean ones. Most of the species that will lose more than 70% of their current modeled distribution area comprised big macrolichens with cyanobacteria as the photobiont, thereby indicating a great biomass loss in forests, which might affect nutrient cycles. We also found that the predicted distributions were trait-related. Smaller species, green-algae lichens, and saxicolous and epiphyte species will respond better to future climate change. The results of this type of study may help to identify the species that are most vulnerable to climate change and facilitate the development of conservation measures to avoid their decline.

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Acknowledgements

We thank two anonymous referees and the associate editor of this journal for their helpful comments. This research was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science (BIOFRAG, CGL2007-66066-C04-04) and partially by the Ministries of Science and Innovation (EPICON, CGL2010 -22049), and Economy (EPIDIVERSITY, CGL2013-47010-P), the Madrid Autonomous Region, and the European Union (FEDER Founding) (REMEDINAL2-CM, S2009/AMB-1783). This study was also supported by a Ph.D. Grant awarded by the Spanish Education Ministry to M. Rubio-Salcedo.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación, ESCET, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, c/ Tulipán s/n, 28933, Móstoles, Madrid, Spain

    Marta Rubio-Salcedo, María Prieto & Isabel Martínez

  2. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

    Achilleas Psomas & Niklaus E. Zimmermann

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  1. Marta Rubio-Salcedo
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  2. Achilleas Psomas
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  3. María Prieto
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  4. Niklaus E. Zimmermann
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  5. Isabel Martínez
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Isabel Martínez.

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Communicated by Pradeep Kumar Divakar.

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Rubio-Salcedo, M., Psomas, A., Prieto, M. et al. Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions. Biodivers Conserv 26, 1121–1141 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-016-1289-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-016-1289-1

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