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Ecological niche modeling of the invasive potential of Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus in African river systems: concerns and implications for the conservation of indigenous congenerics

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Abstract

This study applied ecological niche models to determine the potential invasive range of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, with a particular focus on river systems in southern Africa where it is now established and spreading. Computational tools such as niche models are useful in predicting the potential range of invasive species, but there are limitations to their application. In particular, models trained on native records may fail to predict the full extent of an invasion. This failure is often attributed to changes in either the niche of the invading species or the variables used to develop the models. In this study, we therefore evaluated the differences in the predictive power of models trained with different environmental variables, the effect of species range (native vs. introduced) on model performance and assessed whether or not there is evidence suggestive of a niche shift in Nile tilapia following its introduction. Niche models were constructed using Maxent and the degree of niche similarity was assessed using Schoener`s index. Null models were used to test for significance. Model performance and niche conservatism varied significantly with variable selection and species range. This indicates that the environmental conditions available to Nile tilapia in its native and introduced ranges are not congruent. Nile tilapia exhibited broad invasive potential over most of southern Africa that overlaps the natural range of endemic congenerics. Of particular concern are areas which are free of exotic species but are now vulnerable due to the promotion of fish introductions mainly for aquaculture and sport fishing.

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Acknowledgments

This project was funded by the South African Working for Water (WfW) Programme through the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology (CIB), University of Pretoria, South Africa. We thank FishBase (http://www.fishbase.org) and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org) for access to their databases. We are grateful to Dan Warren from the University of Texas at Austin who provided a Perl script for large data sets and whose comments helped to improve an earlier version of this manuscript. We are also grateful to John Minshull, former Curator of Ichthyology at the Natural History Museum of Zimbabwe in Bulawayo, Shaft Nengu of the Department of Wildlife and National Parks in Botswana, Andrew Fenwick the Editor of African Fisherman Magazine, Maxwell Barson of the University of Zimbabwe, and Michelle Losseau, a Belgian field biologist currently based in Mozambique, for providing Nile tilapia occurrence data in their respective countries.

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  1. Tsungai A. Zengeya

    Present address: Natural Resources and the Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), PO Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Zoology and Entomology, DST-NRF Centre for Invasion Biology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa

    Tsungai A. Zengeya, Mark P. Robertson & Christian T. Chimimba

  2. Department of Ichthyology and Fisheries Science, Rhodes University, PO Box 94, Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa

    Anthony J. Booth

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  1. Tsungai A. Zengeya
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Correspondence to Tsungai A. Zengeya.

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Zengeya, T.A., Robertson, M.P., Booth, A.J. et al. Ecological niche modeling of the invasive potential of Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus in African river systems: concerns and implications for the conservation of indigenous congenerics. Biol Invasions 15, 1507–1521 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-012-0386-7

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