Abstract
The authors propose a random effects model to analyze the latent genetic and environmental effects on determining censored outcomes in twin studies. In this model, six normally distributed random effects are used to describe the correlation within twin pairs. The authors employ a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization approach for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of fixed effects and the variances of random effects. The variances of the random effects are reparameterized to be equivalent to genetic and environmental effects in traditional twin models. The authors illustrate this model using data from the Vietnam Era Twin Registry to explore the magnitude of the genetic influence on twin similarity for the age of onset of alcohol abuse. Our results show genetic factors contribute about one third of twin similarity in the age of onset of alcohol abuse in male twins. The application of this model to twin data is discussed.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- DZ:
-
dizygotic twins
- EM:
-
Expectation-Maximization
- MCEM:
-
Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization
- MZ:
-
monozygotic twins
- VET:
-
Vietnam Era Twin
References
J. Amsterdam F. Garcia-Espana J. Fawcett F. Quitkin F. Reimherr J. Rosenbaum C. Beasley (1999) ArticleTitleFluoxetine efficacy in menopausal women with and without estrogen replacement J. Affect. Disord. 55 11–17 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0165-0327(98)00203-1 Occurrence Handle10512601 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1MvktFWkuw%3D%3D
E. Anderson M. Lambert (2001) ArticleTitleA survival analysis of clinically significant change in outpatient psychotherapy J. Clin. Psychol. 57 875–888 Occurrence Handle10.1002/jclp.1056 Occurrence Handle11406801 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3Mzktlagsw%3D%3D
InstitutionalAuthorNameAmerican Psychiatric Association (APA). (1987) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III-R) American Psychiatric Press Washington, DC
W. Chen S. Faraone M. Tsuang (1992) ArticleTitleEstimating age at onset distributions: a review of methods and issues Psychiatr. Genet. 2 219–238
D. Clayton (1978) ArticleTitleA model for association in bivariate life-tables and its application in epidemiological studies of familial tendency in chronic disease Biometrika 65 141–151
D. Clayton (1991) ArticleTitleA Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference in frailty models Biometrics 47 467–485 Occurrence Handle1912256 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:By2D3czhtVM%3D
D. Clayton J. Cuzick (1985) ArticleTitleMultivariate generalizations of the proportional hazards model J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A. 148 82–117
N. Day (1995) Epidemiology of alcohol use, abuse, and dependence G. Zahner (Eds) Textbook in Psychiatric Epidemiology John Wiley & Sons New York 345–360
A. Dempster N. Laird D. Rubin (1977) ArticleTitleMaximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm (with discussion) J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B 39 1–38
S. Eisen W. True J. Goldberg W. Henderson C. Robinette (1987) ArticleTitleThe Vietnam Era Twin (VET) Registry: method of construction Acta Genet. Med. Gemellol. (Roma) 36 61–66 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BieD2crlsV0%3D
S. Faraone M. Tsuang (1995) Methods in psychiatric genetics G. Zahner (Eds) Textbook in Psychiatric Epidemiology John Wiley & Sons New York 81–134
H. Feldman (1988) ArticleTitleFamilies of lines: random effects in linear regression analysis J. Appl. Physiol. 64 1721–1732 Occurrence Handle3379003 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BieB2czmsFw%3D
R. Gibbons D. Hedeker I. Elkin C. Waternaux H. Kraemer J. Greenhouse M. Shea S. Imber S. Sotsky J. Watkins (1993) ArticleTitleSome conceptual and statistical issues in analysis of longitudinal psychiatric data: application to the NIMH Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program dataset Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 50 739–750 Occurrence Handle8357299 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:ByyA28zgsVM%3D
D. Glidden (1999) ArticleTitleChecking the adequacy of the gamma frailty model for multivariate failure times Biometrika 86 381–393 Occurrence Handle10.1093/biomet/86.2.381
J. Goldberg W. True S. Eisen W. Henderson C. Robinette (1987) ArticleTitleThe Vietnam Era Twin (VET) Registry: ascertainment bias Acta Genet. Med. Gemellol. (Roma) 36 67–78 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BieD2crlsFQ%3D
G. Guo G. Rodriguez (1992) ArticleTitleEstimating a multivariate proportional hazards model for clustered data using the EM algorithm, with an application to child survival in Guatemala J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 87 969–976
Heath, A., Neale, M., Hewitt, J., Eaves, L., and Fulkner, D. (1989). Testing structure equation models for twin data using LISREL. Behav. Genet. 19.
J. Helzer A. Burnam L. McEvoy (1991) Alcohol dependence and abuse D. Regier (Eds) Psychiatric Disorders in America. The Epidemiologic Catchment Area Study The Free Press New York 53–81
W. Henderson S. Eisen J. Goldberg W. True J. Barnes M. Vitek (1990) ArticleTitleThe Vietnam Era Twin Registry: a resource for medical research Public Health Rep. 105 368–373 Occurrence Handle2116638 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:By%2BA2c7kslI%3D
P. Hoel (1984) Introduction to Mathematical Statistics John Wiley & Sons New York
K. Kendler (1993) ArticleTitleTwin studies of psychiatric illness: current status and future directions Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 50 905–915 Occurrence Handle8215816 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:ByuD38bksFQ%3D
K. Kendler L. Thornton C. Gardner (2001) ArticleTitleGenetic risk, number of previous depressive episodes, and stressful life events in predicting onset of major depression Am. J. Psychiatry 158 582–586 Occurrence Handle11282692 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3M3ivVKqsQ%3D%3D
Khoury, M., Beaty, T., and Cohen, B. (1993). Fundamental genetic concepts and approaches, Fundamentals of Genetic Epidemiology New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 26–54.
J. Klein (1992) ArticleTitleSemiparametric estimation of random effects using the Cox model based on the EM algorithm Biometrics 48 795–806 Occurrence Handle1420842 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:ByyD2c3mt1Y%3D
Klein, J., and Moeschberger (1997). Multivariate survival analysis, Survival Analysis Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data. pp. 405–418..
N. Laird J. Ware (1982) ArticleTitleRandom effects models for longitudinal data Biometrics 1982 963–974
T. Louis (1982) ArticleTitleFinding the observed information matrix with using the EM algorithm J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B 44 190–200
M. Neale L. Cardon (1992) Methodology for Genetic Studies of Twins and Families Kluwer Academic Dordrecht, the Netherlands
J. O’Quigley J. Stare (2002) ArticleTitleProportional hazards models with frailties and random effects Stat. Med. 21 3219–3233 Occurrence Handle12375300
J. Petersen P. Andersen R. Gill (1996) ArticleTitleVariance components models for survival data Stat. Neerl. 50, nr. 1 193–211
J. Peterson (1998) ArticleTitleAn additive frailty model for correlated life times Biometrics 54 646–661
A. Pickles R. Crouchley (1995) ArticleTitleA comparison of frailty models for multivariate survival data Stat. Med. 21 1447–1461
A. Pickles (1999) Survival analysis methods in twin research A. MacGregor (Eds) Advances in Twin and Sib-pair Analysis Greenwich Medical Media Limited London, UK 131–142
C. Prescott K. Kendler (1999) ArticleTitleGenetic and environmental contributions to alcohol abuse and dependence in a population-based sample of male twins Am. J. Psychiatry 156 34–40 Occurrence Handle9892295 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1M7gsleisQ%3D%3D
L. Robins J. Helzer L. Cottler E. Goldring (1989) Diagnostic Interview Schedule Version III Revised National Institute of Mental Health Rockville, MD
N. Sastry (1997) ArticleTitleA nested frailty model for survival data, with an application to the study of child survival in northeast Brazil J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 92 426–435 Occurrence Handle12155403 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD38roslWgtA%3D%3D
T. Spector H. Snieder A. MacGregor (1999) Advances in Twin and Sib-pair Analysis Greenwich Medical Media Limited London, UK
E. Swoboda A. Conca P. Koenig R. Waanders M. Hansen (2001) ArticleTitleMaintenance electroconvulsive therapy in affective and schizoaffective disorder Neuropsychobiology 43 23–28 Occurrence Handle10.1159/000054861 Occurrence Handle11150895 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3MzotFansA%3D%3D
F. Vaida R. Xu (2000) ArticleTitleProportional hazards model with random effects Stat. Med. 19 3309–3324 Occurrence Handle10.1002/1097-0258(20001230)19:24<3309::AID-SIM825>3.0.CO;2-9 Occurrence Handle11122497 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3MzgsVWmtg%3D%3D
J. Vaupel K. Manton E. Stallard (1979) ArticleTitleThe impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamic of mortality Demography 16 439–454 Occurrence Handle510638 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:Bi%2BD28blvFY%3D
B. Viswanathan A.K. Manatunga (2001) ArticleTitleDiagnostic plots for assessing the frailty distribution in multivariate survival data Lifetime Data Anal. 7 143–155 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1011348823081 Occurrence Handle11458654 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3Mvgslamsg%3D%3D
J. Ware (1985) ArticleTitleLinear models for the analysis of longitudinal studies Am. Stat. 39 95–101
J. Willett J. Singer N. Martin (1998) ArticleTitleThe design and analysis of longitudinal studies of development and psychopathology in context: Statistical models and methodological recommendations Dev. Psychopathol. 10 395–426 Occurrence Handle10.1017/S0954579498001667 Occurrence Handle9635230 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DyaK1c3pvV2luw%3D%3D
L. Wu J. Anthony (1999) ArticleTitleTobacco smoking and depressed mood in late childhood and early adolescence Am. J. Public Health 89 1837–1840 Occurrence Handle10589312 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD3c%2Fls1Kqsg%3D%3D Occurrence Handle10.2105/AJPH.89.12.1837
A. Yashin I. Iachine (1995a) ArticleTitleGenetic analysis of durations: correlated frailty model applied to survival of Danish twins Genet. Epidemiol. 12 529–538 Occurrence Handle10.1002/gepi.1370120510 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:BymC2M%2Fns10%3D
A. Yashin I. Iachine (1995b) ArticleTitleSurvival of related individuals: An extension of some fundamental results of heterogeneity analysis Math. Popul. Stud. 5 321–339 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD38ngt1OqtA%3D%3D
A. Yashin J. Vaupel I. Iachine (1995) ArticleTitleCorrelated individual frailty: an advantageous approach to survival analysis of bivariate data Math. Popul. Stud. 5 145–159 Occurrence Handle12290053 Occurrence Handle1:STN:280:DC%2BD38rnvVarsQ%3D%3D
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, IC., Xu, R., Blacker, D.L. et al. The Application of a Random Effects Model to Censored Twin Data. Behav Genet 35, 781–789 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10519-005-7285-y
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10519-005-7285-y