Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Landslides Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In the last 20 years, several catastrophic precipitation-induced landslides have hit villages, towns and roads in Campania (southern Italy), causing extensive damage and many fatalities. Although such phenomena have occurred since time immemorial, recent urbanisation and infrastructural development have produced a major increase in landslide risk. Due to climatic changes and further unavoidable increases in exposure, in the near future, the risk will become even greater. It is therefore high time to develop reliable criteria for landslide prediction. The paper discusses the main factors which affect the triggering of precipitation-induced landslides, highlighting the key role played by antecedent rainfalls which cannot be precisely accounted for using empirical criteria. We propose a simple 1D numerical approach able to predict the evolution of the key factors governing slope stability as a tool to predict the onset of slope failure, with potential benefits for early warning systems. The approach is calibrated through a well-documented case history.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Brunetti MT, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Ardizzone F, Cardinali M, Mondini A, Salvati P, Tonelli G, Valigi D, Lucani S (2009) A prototype system to forecast rainfall-induced landslides in Italy Proc 1st Italian Workshop on Landslides, Picarelli L, Tommasi P, Urciuoli G, Versace P eds, Napoli 1:157-161

  • Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flow. Geogr Ann Ser A-Physical Geography 62(1–2):23–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calcaterra D, Parise M, Palma B, Pelella L (2000) The influence of meteoric events in triggering shallow landslides in pyroclastic deposits of Campania, Italy. In: Bromhead E, Dixon N, Ibsen ML (eds) Proc 8th Int Symp on Landslides. Cardiff 1:209–214. Balkema, Rotterdam

  • Cascini L, Sorbino G (2004) The contribution of soil suction measurements to the analysis of flowslide triggering. In: Picarelli L (ed) Proc Int Workshop on Occurrence and Mechanisms of Flow-Like Landslides in Natural Slopes and Earthfills. Sorrento, 2003: 77-86. Patron, Bologna

  • Cascini L, Guida D, Romanzi G, Nocera N, Sorbino G (2000) A preliminary model for the landslides of May 1998 in Campania Region. In: Evangelista A, Picarelli L (eds) Proc Int Symp on The Geotechnics of Hard Soils – Soft Rocks, Napoli, 12-14 October 1998, 3: 1623-1652. Rotterdam, Balkema

  • Crosta GB, Frattini P (2001). Rainfall thresholds for triggering soil slips and debris flow. In: Mugnai A, Guzzetti F, Roth G (eds) Proc 2nd EGS Plinius Conf on Mediterranean Storms. Siena, 463–487

  • D’Orsi R, d’Ávila C, Ortigão JAR, Dias A, Moraes L, Santos MD (1997) Rio-Watch: The Rio de Janeiro Landslide Watch System. Proc 2nd Pan-American Symp on Landslides, Rio de Janeiro 1:21-30

  • de Riso R, Budetta P, Calcaterra D, Santo A (2007) Riflessioni sul comportamento delle colate rapide non incanalate della Campania, alla luce delle conoscenze pregresse. Proc National Conf on La Mitigazione del Rischio da Colate di Fango, Napoli, May, 2-3, 2005, pp 81-92

  • Evangelista A, Nicotera MV, Scotto di Santolo A (2003) Experimental and theoretical validation of matric suction measurements in pyroclastic soils. In: Picarelli L (ed) Proc Int Conf on Fast Slope Movements - Prediction and Prevention for Risk Mitigation. Napoli 1:173-177. Pàtron, Bologna

  • Evangelista A, Scotto di Santolo A, Lombardi G (2007) Previsione dell’innesco di fenomeni franosi nelle coltri piroclastiche della città di Napoli. Proc XIII Convegno Nazionale di Geotecnica, Padova, pp 227–234

    Google Scholar 

  • GEO-SLOPE (2004) SEEP/W for finite element seepage analysis. GEO-SLOPE International, Calgary

    Google Scholar 

  • Guadagno FM (1991) Debris flows in the Campanian volcanoclastic soils (Southern Italy). Proc Int Conf on Slope Stability, Isle of Wight: 125–130. Thomas Telford

  • Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M (2005) Definition of critical thresholds for different scenarios. RISK-Advanced Weather forecast system to Advise on Risk Events andmanagement, IRPI CNR, Perugia

    Google Scholar 

  • Hungr O, Evans SG, Bovis MJ, Hutchinson JN (2001) A review of the classification of landslides of flow type. Environ Eng Geosci 7(3):1–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Mualem Y (1976) A new model predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media. Water Resour Res 12:513–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Musso A, Olivares L (2004) Flowslides in pyroclastic soils – transition from “static liquefaction” to “fluidization”. In: Picarelli L (ed) Proc Int Workshop on Occurrence and Mechanisms of Flow-Like Landslides in Natural Slopes and Earthfills. Sorrento, 2003: 117-127. Pàtron, Bologna

  • Nicotera M, Papa R (2007) Comportamento idraulico e meccanico della serie piroclastica di Monteforte Irpino. Progetto PETIT-OSA Monitoraggio Frane: Contributo alle Conoscenze sulla Franosità in Campania: 272-280. ARACNE

  • Olivares L (2001) Static liquefaction: an hypothesis for explaining transition from slide to flow in pyroclastic soils. Proc Satellite Conf on Transition from Slide to Flow–Mechanisms and Remedial Measure, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey, CD-ROM

  • Olivares L, Picarelli L (2001) Susceptibility of loose pyroclastic soils to static liquefaction: some preliminary data. In: Kühne M, Einstein HH, Krauter E, Klapperich H, Pöttler R (eds) Proc. Int. Conf. on Landslides – Causes, Impacts and Countermeasures. Davos: 75-85

  • Olivares L, Picarelli L (2006) Modelling of flowslides behaviour for risk mitigation. In: Ng CWW, Zhang LM, Wang YH (eds) Proc 6th Int Conf on Physical Modelling in Geotechnics. Hong Kong 1:99-112. Taylor & Francis, London

  • Olivares L, Damiano E (2007) Post-failure mechanics of landslides: a laboratory investigation of flowslides in pyroclastic soils. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng ASCE 133(1):51–62

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olivares L, Tommasi P (2008) The role of suction and its changes on stability of steep slopes in unsaturated granular soils. In: Chen Z, Zhang J, Li Z, Wu F, Ho K (eds) Proc. 10th Int Symp on Landslides, From the Past to the Future. Xi’an 1:203-215. Taylor & Francis, London

  • Olivares L, Andreozzi L, Damiano E, Avolio B, Picarelli L (2003a) Hydrological response of a steep slope in unsaturated pyroclastic soils. In: Picarelli L (ed) Proc Int Conf on Fast Slope Movements – Prediction and Prevention for Risk Mitigation. Naples: 391-397. Pàtron, Bologna

  • Olivares L, Damiano E, Picarelli L (2003b) Wetting and flume tests on a volcanic ash. In: Picarelli L (ed) Proc Int Conf on Fast Slope Movements - Prediction and Prevention for Risk Mitigation. Napoli 1:399-404. Pàtron, Bologna

  • Pagano L, Zingariello MC, Vinale F (2008) A large physical model to simulate flowslides in pyroclastic soils. Proc First European Conf on Unsaturated Soils on Unsaturated Soils: Advances in Geo-Engineering. Durham: 205-213

  • Papa R, Pirone M, Nicotera MV, Urciuoli G (2009). Meccanismi di innesco di colate di fango in piroclastiti parzialmente sature. In: Picarelli L, Tommasi P, Urciuoli G, Versace P (eds) Proc. 1st Italian Workshop on Landslides. Napoli 2:91–106

  • Picarelli L, Evangelista A, Rolandi G, Paone A, Nicotera MV, Olivares L, Scotto di Santolo A, Lampitiello S, Rolandi M (2006) Mechanical properties of pyroclastic soils in Campania Region. In: Tan TS, Phoon KK, Height DW, Leroueil S (eds) Proc. 2nd Int. Symp. on Characterisation and Engineering Properties of Natural Soils. Singapore 4:2331-2384. Taylor and Francis, London

  • Picarelli L, Santo A, Di Crescenzo G, Olivares L (2008a) Macro-zoning of areas susceptible to flowslide in pyroclastic soils in Campania Region. In: Chen Z, Zhang J, Li Z, Wu F, Ho K (eds) Proc. 10th Int. Symp. on Landslides. Xi’an 2:1951-1958. Taylor & Francis, London

  • Picarelli L, Olivares L, Avolio B (2008b) Zoning for flowslide and debris flow in pyroclastic soils of Campania Region based on “infinite slope” analysis. Eng Geol 102(3–4):132–141

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Picarelli L, Olivares L, Comegna L, Damiano E (2008c) Mechanical aspects of flow-like movements in granular and fine-grained soils. Rock Mech Rock Eng 41(1):179–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Picarelli L, Versace P, Olivares L, Damiano E (2009). Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides in unsaturated granular soils for setting up of early warning systems. Proceedings of the 2007 International Forum on Landslide Disaster Management, Hong Kong, 1: 643–665

  • Sirangelo B, Versace P (1996) A real time forecasting for landslide triggered by rainfall. Meccanica 31:1–13

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Società Autostrade Meridionali, which partly funded this work and provided meteorological data, as well as R. Pang and H. W. Sun for their critical remarks and useful suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Università di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy

    Luca Pagano, Guido Rianna & Gianfranco Urciuoli

  2. Seconda Università di Napoli, Aversa, Italy

    Luciano Picarelli

Authors
  1. Luca Pagano
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Luciano Picarelli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Guido Rianna
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Gianfranco Urciuoli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Luciano Picarelli.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Pagano, L., Picarelli, L., Rianna, G. et al. A simple numerical procedure for timely prediction of precipitation-induced landslides in unsaturated pyroclastic soils. Landslides 7, 273–289 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0216-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-010-0216-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation