Abstract
The work of this paper is motivated by a study of Great Cormorants, Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis, in Denmark. The dataset is complex, involving birds in different states living in and moving between neighbouring colonies. As a consequence, the set of probability models that might describe the data is large. In order to choose between the models, we present a score test approach for moving efficiently between the members of a model set with many members. We then provide a new measure for testing the absolute goodness-of-fit of the selected model to the data. This measure may be used when a model is multi-state/multi-site, and involves age- and time-dependence, as well as integrated recovery and recapture data, which is needed for the application. An illustration is provided by data from a single colony only, but with two breeding states, and an additional emigrated state.
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We acknowledge the support of the EPSRC grant to the National Centre for Statistical Ecology and the helpful detailed comments of the anonymous referee.
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Communicated by M. Schaub.
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McCrea, R.S., Morgan, B.J.T. & Bregnballe, T. Model comparison and assessment for multi-state capture–recapture–recovery models. J Ornithol 152 (Suppl 2), 293–303 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-010-0611-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-010-0611-z