Abstract
According to hydrological simulations by the Mekong River Commission, average annual flow of the Mekong will not change significantly despite climate change. However, they projected increased variability in wet and dry season flows, which will tend to increase the flood and drought risks to crops. To learn the implications of climate change for rice farming in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), a lower part of the Basin from China-Lao PDR border to the South China Sea, climate and hydrological figures related to rice production were compared in between the baseline in 1985–2000 and the climate change scenario in 2010–2050. Special attention was given to their 10 and 90 % exceedance values, which are rough equivalence of 10 and 90 % cumulative probabilities, to see changes in the frequency and extent of extreme weather events. Major findings of this study include the followings: (1) evapo-transpirations will increase in both average and 90 % cumulative probability values, raising irrigation demand. (2) Deviation of the annual rainfall will become larger, causing water shortage in reservoirs more frequently in the future. (3) The transplanting date of rain-fed rice will be delayed more likely due to insufficient precipitation in the early wet season, which may result in decreasing rice production. (4) Longer dry spells will be observed during the wet season, raising the drought risk to rain-fed rice. (5) These changes will be generally observed across the LMB, while the extent of the changes varies among regions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
FAO (1998) FAO Irrigation and Drainage paper No. 56. Crop Evapotranspiration
FAO (2010) FAOSTAT: Food Security Indicators by country. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Hasegawa T, Sawano S, Goto S, Konghakote P, Polthanee A, Ishigooka Y, Kuwagata T, Toritani H, Furuya J (2007a). A model driven by crop water use and nitrogen supply for simulating changes in the regional yield of rain-fed lowland rice in Northeast Thailand
Hasegawa T, Sawano S, Goto S, Konghakote P, Polthanee A, Ishigooka Y, Kuwagata T, Toritani H (2007b) Modeling the dependence of the crop calendar for rain-fed rice on precipitation in Northeast Thailand
MRC (2009a) Agriculture sector information for the economic, environmental and social assessment of the considered basin-wide development scenarios
MRC (2009b) MRC’s role in agriculture and agricultural water management; strategy paper
MRC (2010a) MRC Technical Paper No. 26: Multi-functionality of Paddy Fields over the Lower Mekong Basin
MRC (2010b) MRC Technical Paper No. 29: Impacts of climate change and development on Mekong flow regimes, First assessment 2009
MRC (2011) Assessment of Basin-wide Development Scenarios Main Report
Acknowledgments
This study was conducted under the Sustainable and Efficient Water Use in Irrigated Agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin (SEWU) Project of the MRC, which was funded by Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the Government of Japan.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yamauchi, K. Climate change impacts on agriculture and irrigation in the Lower Mekong Basin. Paddy Water Environ 12 (Suppl 2), 227–240 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-013-0388-9
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-013-0388-9