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Prediction of paddy field change based on climate change scenarios using the CLUE model

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Abstract

This study simulated land-cover change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model and predicted future changes in paddy field area under climate change scenarios A1B, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The CLUE model is a dynamic spatial land-use simulation model considering competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Yongin, Icheon, and Anseong, South Korea, were selected as study areas, and scenarios were developed for regional-level simulation of land-use change. Binary logistic regressions were also conducted to evaluate the relationships between land uses and its driving factors. Finally, the simulation results suggested future changes of paddy field area under the scenario conditions. In all the scenarios, demand for cropland, including paddy and upland, decreased continuously throughout the simulation period of 2000–2100. The decrease in cropland area was particularly steep in scenario A2 in 2050. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) values indicated that the spatial patterns of land-cover types based on the regressions were reasonably explained by the driving factors. According to the scenarios developed and location characteristics, in scenario A1B, paddy field areas were mainly transformed into built-up areas, while in the other scenarios paddy field areas were mainly transformed into forest. The approach used in this study is expected to enable exploration of future land-use changes under other development constraints and detailed scenarios.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Yun-Gyeong Oh & Seung-Hwan Yoo

  2. Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Sang-Hyun Lee

  3. Department of Rural Systems Engineering, and Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    Jin-Yong Choi

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  1. Yun-Gyeong Oh
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  2. Seung-Hwan Yoo
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  3. Sang-Hyun Lee
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  4. Jin-Yong Choi
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Correspondence to Jin-Yong Choi.

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Oh, YG., Yoo, SH., Lee, SH. et al. Prediction of paddy field change based on climate change scenarios using the CLUE model. Paddy Water Environ 9, 309–323 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-010-0244-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-010-0244-0

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