Abstract
Stochastic and time-varying volatility models typically fail to correctly price out-of-the-money put options at short maturity. We extend realized volatility option pricing models by adding a jump component which provides a rapidly moving volatility factor and improves on the fitting properties under the physical measure. The change of measure is performed by means of an exponentially affine pricing kernel which depends on an equity and two variance risk premia, associated with the continuous and jump components of realized volatility. Our choice preserves analytical tractability and offers a new way of estimating variance risk premia by combining high-frequency returns and option data in a multicomponent pricing model.
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Notes
As shown in “Appendix B,” the more general specification
$$\begin{aligned} y_{t}=r+\lambda _c \mathrm {RV}^{c}_{t} + \lambda _j \mathrm {RV}^{j}_{t} +\sqrt{ \mathrm {RV}^{c}_{t} + \mathrm {RV}^{j}_{t} }\epsilon _{t} \end{aligned}$$(3)admits consistency with the no-arbitrage principle if and only if \(\lambda _c=\lambda _j=\lambda \).
“Perhaps surprisingly, the results indicate that neither of the jump-adjusted standardized series are systematically closer to Gaussian than the nonadjusted realized volatility standardized returns. [...] One reason is that jumps largely self-standardize: a large jump tends to inflate the (absolute) value of both the return (numerator) and the realized volatility (denominator) of standardized returns, so the impact is muted” Andersen et al. (2010).
For practical implementation, we refer to the updated version available on SSRN including some corrections to the published version. Link: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2494379.
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Appendices
A MGF under \(\varvec{\mathbb {P}}\) measure
The relations which follow are derived for the log-return dynamics specified in Eq. (2). For the ease of computation, expression (4) is rewritten as
with
We start showing that JLHARG processes satisfy the affine relation
for some functions \({\mathcal {A}}\,:\,{\mathbb {R}}\times {\mathbb {R}}^2\times {\mathbb {R}}\rightarrow {\mathbb {R}}\), \({\varvec{{\mathcal {B}}}}_i\,:\,{\mathbb {R}}\times {\mathbb {R}}^2\times {\mathbb {R}}\rightarrow {\mathbb {R}}^2\), \({\varvec{{\mathcal {C}}}}_j\,:\,{\mathbb {R}}\times {\mathbb {R}}^2\times {\mathbb {R}}\rightarrow {\mathbb {R}}\), where \({\mathbf {RV}}_t=(\mathrm {RV}_t^c,\mathrm {RV}_t^j)\), \({\mathbf {b}}\in {\mathbb {R}}^2\), \(c\in {\mathbb {R}}\), and \(\cdot \) is the scalar product in \({\mathbb {R}}^2\). To derive the explicit form of the functions \({\mathcal {A}},\,{\mathcal {B}}_i,\,{\mathcal {C}}_j\) which allows to characterize the MGF we show that
In the third line we have used the result that if \(Z\sim {\mathcal {N}}(0,1)\) then
For a noncentered gamma random variable, from Gourieroux and Jasiak (2006) we know that
where
and
For the computation of the last expectation in the final line of (10), we use the property that if \(Z_t\) is a compound Poisson process with rate \(\omega \) and i.i.d. jump sizes \(D_i\), then
where \(M_D(x)\) is the MGF of the jump size random variable D. Since sizes are distributed according to a gamma distribution, we have
From expressions (12) and (13) we obtain
where
Gathering all the previous results, we finally conclude
The direct comparison of the last expression with (9) allows to derive the following explicit expressions
As shown in Majewski et al. (2015), once we have above expressions we obtain
where
with
The functions \({\mathcal {V}}\), \({\mathcal {W}}\) and \({\mathcal {J}}\) are defined as above. The terminal conditions read \(\mathrm {a}_T=\mathrm {b}_{T,i}=\mathrm {c}_{T,j}=0\) for \(i=1,2,...,p\) and \(j=1,2,...,q\).
B No-arbitrage condition
The no-arbitrage conditions are
The first relation is satisfied by definition of \(M_{s,s+1}\). From a general result in Majewski et al. (2015), condition (20) is satisfied if, and only if
with \({\varvec{\nu }}=(\nu _c,\nu _j)\). To conclude, it is sufficient to show under which conditions the following two relations hold true
Simple computations show that the latter equations are satisfied if and only if
Remarkably, the only specification for the log-return dynamics in Eq. (2) which ensures consistency with no-arbitrage is the dynamics where the equity premia \(\lambda _c\) and \(\lambda _j\) are equal and coincide to \(\lambda \). Then, we obtain
It is important to notice that the no-arbitrage condition for the equity premium does not constrain the value of the variance risk premia \(\nu _c\) and \(\nu _j\).
C Risk-neutral dynamics
JLHARG models imply a risk-neutral MGF for log-returns whose exponential affine terms can be re-parameterized in order to obtain an expression formally equivalent to the physical MGF. Firstly we observe that the risk-neutral MGF can be expressed with a recursive set of expressions, involving a combination of the functions \({\mathcal {A}},\,{\mathcal {B}}_i,\,{\mathcal {C}}_j\). Then, recalling the results given in Majewski et al. (2015), the MGF for JLHARG model under measure \({\mathbb {Q}}\) has the following form
where
where
with \(l=c,j\) and the terminal conditions are \(\mathrm {a}^*_T=\mathrm {b}_{T,i}^{*}=\mathrm {c}^*_{T,j}=0\) for \(i=1,2,...,p\) and \(j=1,2,...,q\).
The first passage consists in comparing expression (21) with (17). We have to find a set of new parameters for which the recursive expressions for \(\mathrm {a}^*_t,\mathrm {b}^{*}_t,\mathrm {c}^*_t \) under \({\mathbb {Q}}\) correspond to the expressions under \({\mathbb {P}}\). We start defining
Then, the following relations have to hold
with \(\mathrm {y}^{c\,*}=-\lambda ^2/2-\nu _c+\frac{1}{8}\) and \(\mathrm {y}^{j\,*}=-\lambda ^2/2-\nu _j+\frac{1}{8}\).
Equation (22) can be explicitly written as
which implies the following three sufficient conditions
It can be easily verified that last condition (26) is satisfied by substituting
Equation (23) can be equivalently expressed in the form
which gives another sufficient condition for the mapping
An analogous consideration about third condition (24) allows to obtain the condition on \(\alpha _i^*\),
Relation (8) gives us the expressions for \(\beta _d^*\), \(\beta _w^*\), \(\beta _m^*\), \(\alpha _d^*\), \(\alpha _w^*\) and \(\alpha _m^*\). Finally, equation (25) provides the last sufficient condition
which is satisfied if
As it can be seen last condition (27) is redundant when compared to condition (26).
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Alitab, D., Bormetti, G., Corsi, F. et al. A realized volatility approach to option pricing with continuous and jump variance components. Decisions Econ Finan 42, 639–664 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-019-00241-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10203-019-00241-2