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Using Carbon Isotope Ratios to Verify Predictions of a Model Simulating the Interaction Between Coastal Plant Communities and Their Effect on Ground Water Salinity

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Abstract

As sea level rises in low-lying coastal islands, salt-tolerant (halophytic) coastal vegetation communities may be able to migrate inland, replacing the freshwater vegetation that is unable to tolerate salt stress. The pace of such shifts may be accelerated by a self-reinforcing feedback between the halophytic vegetation and salinity, as well as by frequent and intensified salinity pulses associated with the increasing impact of storm surges as a consequence of sea-level rise. We used a modification of a previously published spatially explicit individual-based model that simulates impacts on upland freshwater hammock communities from sea-level rise and storm surge to predict the interaction between three coastal communities: mangroves, hammocks, and pinelands. The model simulation predicted two qualitative characteristics regarding the interaction between these three different coastal communities: (1) mangroves and hammock communities tend to have ground water with high salinities, while at the same time pineland ground water salinity is low, and (2) pineland located at lower elevation relative to adjacent hammock will be negatively influenced by higher ground water salinities in hammocks, as it flows toward the lower elevation pineland. We tested these predictions using foliar δ13C of Conocarpus erectus collected from Big Pine Key as a proxy for ground water salinity. Measurements of ground water salinity via this proxy confirmed the two predictions of the model. Our approach provides an approximation of the impacts of sea-level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including threatened pineland communities, and can be used as a tool for management decisions.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the USGS’s Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Science project. Many thanks to the US Fish and Wildlife for field work in Big Pine Key. We are also grateful to Department of Biology (University of Miami) for helping in travel arrangements and other logistics. DLD was supported by the USGS’s Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Science Program. Use of trade or product names does not imply endorsement by the US Government. We would like to thank subject editor, Ken Krauss of USGS, and unknown reviewers for their constructive comments during the review process, which has improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology, University of Miami, 1301 Memorial Dr, Coral Gables, Florida, 33146, USA

    Suresh C. Subedi & Leonel Sternberg

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, 3205 College Avenue, Davie, Florida, 33314, USA

    Donald L. DeAngelis

  3. Earth and Environment Department, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th St, Miami, Florida, 33199, USA

    Michael S. Ross

  4. Institute of Water and Environment, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th St, Miami, Florida, 33199, USA

    Danielle E. Ogurcak

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  1. Suresh C. Subedi
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Correspondence to Suresh C. Subedi.

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Author’s Contribution

SS, LS, DD, and MR designed the study; SS, LS, and DO conducted the experiment and collected the data; SS and LS analyzed the data and led the writing of the manuscript. All authors contributed critically to the drafts and gave final approval for publication.

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Subedi, S.C., Sternberg, L., DeAngelis, D.L. et al. Using Carbon Isotope Ratios to Verify Predictions of a Model Simulating the Interaction Between Coastal Plant Communities and Their Effect on Ground Water Salinity. Ecosystems 23, 570–585 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-019-00423-4

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