Abstract
Analyzing trends in precipitation data is crucial for understanding the effects of climate change and making informed decisions about water management and crop patterns. The objective of the presented study was to investigate precipitation trends, analyze temporal and spatial variations and identify potential change points in Turkey throughout the period from 1980 to 2019. Precipitation data were analyzed for both regional and 81 meteorological stations in Turkey on a monthly, seasonal, and annual basis. Spearman rank correlation and Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends and Sen’s slope test to estimate the magnitude of change throughout the entire time series. The average precipitation amount of Turkey was determined 639.2 mm between the years 1980 and 2019. While Central Anatolian and Eastern Anatolian regions had below 639.2 mm, other regions were above. The range of seasonal precipitation values were found for winter 128.7–320.8 mm, 108.9–260.0 mm for spring, 43.9–109.3 mm for summer, and 79.7–238.4 mm for autumn. The analysis of the data revealed no significant increase or decrease in annual values on a regional basis, with the greatest change on a seasonal basis being observed in the winter. The 40-year trends of annual precipitation data belonging to 81 stations were decreasing in 23 provinces and increasing in 58 provinces, and 11 of them (14% of the total) were found to be statistically significant. Moreover, November was found to be a month of particular significance in terms of precipitation changes across the country, with a decrease observed in 80 out of 81 provinces. Spatial distribution analysis showed that the magnitude of variation in precipitation decreased as one moved from the southern to the northern regions of the country.
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Data availability
The precipitation datasets analyzed during the current study are not publicly available as they are the sole entity of the Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). The data can only be used for research and other academic purposes and cannot be shared with third parties unless written permission is granted by the TSMS. The datasets can be available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request after informing the TSMS.
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The authors are gratefully acknowledged to the Turkish State Meteorological Service for sharing meteorological data used for this study.
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AKY designed the study and developed the conceptualization. Data receiving was done by BS. Production of the figures used as material and visualization was done by BA. Analysis and interpretation was performed by AKY, BA and BS. The first version of original draft was prepared by AKY and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final version of manuscript.
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Yetik, A.K., Arslan, B. & Şen, B. Trends and variability in precipitation across Turkey: a multimethod statistical analysis. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 473–488 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04645-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04645-4