Abstract
Meghalaya is known to receive the most torrential rainfall in the world, but the region suffers from water shortage as soon as the rain recedes, and the dry season starts. Changes in rainfall patterns and distribution can have a profound impact on water availability in a watershed, and therefore, examining spatial and temporal variations in rainfall is essential. However, the long-term rainfall variations in Meghalaya are not well explored. In this study, we take up two important watersheds in Meghalaya, i.e. Umiam and Umtru watersheds, to study the spatial and temporal rainfall variations. Using the gridded rainfall data from the Indian Meteorological Department from 1901 to 2018, we show that annual, winter, pre-monsoon, and monsoon rainfall is decreasing, whereas the post-monsoon rainfall is increasing. We use the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method to identify the trends in low-, medium-, and high-intensity rainfall. We find that low- and medium-intensity rainfall is in decreasing trend while high-intensity rainfall is increasing across annual and seasonal time scales. Lastly, we cross-check the trends detected using the innovative trend analysis method with a widely accepted Mann-Kendall (MK) test. We find that the results obtained by using the two methods generally concur; however, the ITA can detect non-monotonic trends in different rainfall intensities and is more sensitive to hidden patterns than the MK test.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available in the Indian Meteorological Department repository (http://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html).
References
Alashan S (2018) An improved version of innovative trend analyses. Arab J Geosci 11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3393-x
Alemu MM, Bawoke GT (2019) Analysis of spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region, Ethiopia. J Water Clim Chang:1–16. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.084
Ali H, Mishra V, Pai DS (2014) Observed and projected urban extreme rainfall events in India. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:12,612–621,641. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022264
Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Chang 14:31–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006
Bayazit M, Önöz B (2007) To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? Hydrol Sci J 52:611–624. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.4.611
Bisht DS, Chatterjee C, Raghuwanshi NS, Sridhar V (2018) Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins. Theor Appl Climatol 132:419–436. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2095-8
Bond NR, Lake PS, Arthington AH (2008) The impacts of drought on freshwater ecosystems: an Australian perspective. Hydrobiologia:1–14
Caloiero T (2020) Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA). Theor Appl Climatol 139:493–504. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02988-5
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2017) Analysis of rainfall trend in southern Italy through the application of the ITA technique. Eur Water 59:199–206
Choudhury BU, Das A, Ngachan SV et al (2012) Trend analysis of long term weather variables in mid-altitude Meghalaya, North-East India. J Agric Phys 12:12–22
Dabanli I, Şen Z (2018) Classical and innovative-Şen trend assessment under climate change perspective. Int J Glob Warm 15:19–37. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2018.091951
Dabanlı İ, Şen Z, Yeleğen MÖ, Şişman E, Selek B, Güçlü YS (2016) Trend assessment by the innovative-Şen method. Water Resour Manag 30:5193–5203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4
Das S, Tomar CS, Saha D et al (2015) Trends in rainfall patterns over North-East India during 1961-2010. Int J Earth Atmos Sci 2:37–48
Dave H, James ME (2017) Characteristics of intense rainfall over Gujarat State (India) based on percentile criteria. Hydrol Sci J 62:2035–2048. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1357818
Duncan JMA, Dash J, Atkinson PM (2013) Analysing temporal trends in the Indian Summer Monsoon and its variability at a fine spatial resolution. Clim Change 117:119–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0537-y
Gedefaw M, Yan D, Wang H, Qin T, Girma A, Abiyu A, Batsuren D (2018) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall variability in Amhara Regional State. Ethiopia. Atmosphere (Basel) 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090326
Güçlü YS, Şişman E, Dabanlı İ (2020) Innovative triangular trend analysis. Arab J Geosci 13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-5048-y
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to. World Meteorol. Organ. Geneva, Switzerland. 106:32
Jain SK, Kumar V, Saharia M (2013) Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India. Int J Climatol 33:968–978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3483
Jothiprakash V, Praveenkumar C, Manasa M (2017) Daily runoff estimation in Musi river basin, India, from gridded rainfall using SWAT model. Eur Water 57:63–69
Kendall MG (1938) A New Measure of Rank Correlation. Biometrika 30:81–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/30.1-2.81
Kendall MG (1948) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin & Co. Ltd., London
Khattak MS, Babel MS, Sharif M (2011) Hydro-meteorological trends in the upper Indus River basin in Pakistan. Clim Res 46:103–119. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00957
Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol 374:171–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.012
Laskar SI, Kotal SD, Bhowmik SKR (2014) Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends of selected stations over North East India during last century. Mausam 65:497–508
Le Comte D (1998) Weather highlights: around the world. Weatherwise 51:26–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/00431672.1998.9927179
Lutz AF, Immerzeel WW, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2014) Consistent increase in High Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nat Clim Chang 4:587–592. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2237
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Marak JDK, Sarma AK, Bhattacharjya RK (2020) Assessing the impacts of interbasin water transfer reservoir on streamflow. 25:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001984
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2010.07.012
Murata F, Hayashi T, Matsumoto J, Asada H (2007) Rainfall on the Meghalaya plateau in northeastern India-one of the rainiest places in the world. Nat Hazards 42:391–399. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9084-z
Myhre G, Alterskjær K, Stjern CW, Hodnebrog Ø, Marelle L, Samset BH, Sillmann J, Schaller N, Fischer E, Schulz M, Stohl A (2019) Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming. Sci Rep 9:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4
Nageswararao MM, Mohanty UC, Ramakrishna SSVS, Nair A, Prasad SK (2016) Characteristics of winter precipitation over Northwest India using high-resolution gridded dataset (1901–2013). Glob Planet Change 147:67–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.10.017
Naidu CV, Durgalakshmi K, Krishna KM et al (2009) Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era? J Geophys Res Atmos 114:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011288
Nyaupane N, Thakur B, Kalra A, Ahmad S (2018) Evaluating future flood scenarios using CMIP5 climate projections. Water (Switzerland) 10:1–18. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121866
Öztopal A, Şen Z (2017) Innovative trend methodology applications to precipitation records in Turkey. Water Resour Manag 31:727–737. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1343-5
Pai DS, Sridhar L, Rajeevan M et al (2014) Development of a new high spatial resolution ( 0 . 25 ° × 0 . 25 ° ) long period ( 1901-2010 ) daily gridded rainfall data set over India and its comparison with existing data sets over the region data sets of different spatial resolutions and time period. Mausam 1:1–18
Papalexiou SM, Montanari A (2019) Global and regional increase of precipitation extremes under global warming. Water Resour Res 55:4901–4914. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024067
Patakamuri SK (2020) modifiedmk: modified versions of Mann Kendall and Spearman’s rho trend tests. CRAN
Pradhan R, Singh N, Singh RP (2019) Onset of summer monsoon in Northeast India is preceded by enhanced transpiration. Sci Rep 9:1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-55186-8
Proctor J, Haridasan K, Smith GW (1998) How far north does lowland evergreen tropical rain forest go? Glob Ecol Biogeogr Lett 7:141–146. https://doi.org/10.2307/2997817
Prokop P, Walanus A (2003) Trend and periodicity in the longest instrumental rainfall series for the area of most extreme rainfall in the world, northeast India. Geogr Pol 76:25–35
Prokop P, Walanus A (2015) Variation in the orographic extreme rain events over the Meghalaya Hills in northeast India in the two halves of the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 121:389–399. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1224-x
Rajeevan M, Bhatle J (2009) A high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset ( 1971 – 2005 ) for mesoscale meteorological studies Author ( s ): M . Rajeevan and Jyoti Bhate Published by : Current Science Association Stable URL : http://www.jstor.com/stable/24105470 A high resolution. Curr Sci 96:558–562
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91:296–306
Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Jaswal AK (2008) Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data. Geophys Res Lett 35:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035143
Ravindranath NH, Rao S, Sharma N et al (2011) Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India. Curr Sci 101:384–394
Romaguera M, Hoekstra AY, Su Z, Krol MS, Salama MS (2010) Potential of using remote sensing techniques for global assessment of water footprint of crops. Remote Sens 2:1177–1196. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs2041177
Rustum R, Adeloye AJ, Mwale F (2017) Spatial and temporal trend analysis of long term rainfall records in data-poor catchments with missing data , a case study of Lower Shire floodplain in Malawi for the Period 1953-2010
Sato T (2013) Mechanism of orographic precipitation around the Meghalaya plateau associated with intraseasonal oscillation and the diurnal cycle. Mon Weather Rev 141:2451–2466. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00321.1
Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934
Şen Z (2012) Innovative trend analysis methodology. J Hydrol Eng 17:1042–1046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556
Şen Z (2014) Trend identification simulation and application. J Hydrol Eng 19:635–642. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811
Şen Z (2017) Innovative trend significance test and applications. Theor Appl Climatol 127:939–947. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x
Serencam U (2019) Innovative trend analysis of total annual rainfall and temperature variability case study: Yesilirmak region, Turkey. Arab J Geosci 12:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4903-1
Sharma A, Goyal MK (2020) Assessment of drought trend and variability in India using wavelet transform. Hydrol Sci J 65:1539–1554. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1754422
Shivam, Goyal MK, Sarma AK (2017) Analysis of the change in temperature trends in Subansiri River basin for RCP scenarios using CMIP5 datasets. Theor Appl Climatol 129:1175–1187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1842-6
Singh O, Kumar M (2013) Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006. Nat Hazards 69:1815–1834. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0781-0
Sonali P, Nagesh Kumar D (2013) Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India. J Hydrol 476:212–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.034
Subash N, Sikka AK (2013) Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1015-9
Trenberth KE (2011) Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim Res 47:123–138. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953
Wang Y, Xu Y, Tabari H, Wang J, Wang Q, Song S, Hu Z (2020) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China. Atmos Res 231:104673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104673
World Meteorology Organization (2019) WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update
Wu H, Qian H (2017) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall and extreme values in Shaanxi, China, since the 1950s. Int J Climatol 37:2582–2592. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4866
Yadav S, Deb P, Kumar S, Pandey V, Pandey PK (2016) Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim, India. J Mt Sci 13:302–315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3238-3
Yaduvanshi A, Zaroug M, Bendapudi R, New M (2019) Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming on regional rainfall and temperature change across India. Environ Res Commun 1:125002. https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab4ee2
Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) Aphrodite constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1401–1415. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1
Yue S, Wang CY (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043140.61082.60
Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002a) Power of the Mann±Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259:254–271
Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002b) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095
Zhou Z, Wang L, Lin A, Zhang M, Niu Z (2018) Innovative trend analysis of solar radiation in China during 1962 e 2015. Renew Energy 119:675–689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.12.052
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Assam, for the scholarship provided to the first author for his PhD work. The authors are thankful to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the precipitation data used in this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
ESM 1
(DOCX 717 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Marak, J.D.K., Sarma, A.K. & Bhattacharjya, R.K. Innovative trend analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall variations in Umiam and Umtru watersheds in Meghalaya, India. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 1397–1412 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03383-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03383-1