Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this study, the performance of moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) to detect abrupt dynamic changes was investigated. Numerical tests in a time series model indicate that the MC-ApEn method is suitable for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes for three types of meteorological data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. Additionally, the MC-ApEn method was used to detect abrupt climate changes in daily precipitation data from Northwest China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The results show an abrupt dynamic change in precipitation in 1980 and in the PDO index in 1976. The times indicated for the abrupt changes are identical to those from previous results. Application of the analysis to observational data further confirmed the performance of the MC-ApEn method. Moreover, MC-ApEn outperformed the moving t test (MTT) and the moving detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) methods for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes in a simulated 1000-point daily precipitation dataset.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barry D, Hartigan JA (1993) A Bayesian analysis for change point problems. J Am Stat Assoc 88(421):309–319

    Google Scholar 

  • Graham NE (1994) Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Clim Dyn 10:135–162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for Northeast Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47:103–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He WP, Feng GL, Wu Q, Wan SQ, Chou JF (2008) A new method for abrupt change detection in dynamic structures. Nonlin Proc Geoph 15:601–606

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He WP, Deng BS, Wu Q, Zhang W, Cheng HY (2010) A new method of detecting abrupt dynamic change based on rescaled range analysis. Acta Phys Sin 59(11):8264–8271 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • He WP, He T, Cheng HY, Zhang W, Wu Q (2011) A new method to detect abrupt change based on approximate entropy. Acta Phys Sin 60(4):049202 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • He WP, Feng GL, Wu Q, He T, Wan SQ, Chou JF (2012) A new method for abrupt dynamic change detection of correlated time series. Int J Climatol 32:1604–1614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He WP, Wan SQ, Jiang YD, Jin HM, Zhang W, Wu Q, He T (2013) Detecting abrupt change on the basis of skewness: numerical tests and applications. Int J Climatol 33:2713–2727

    Google Scholar 

  • Ho KK, Moody GB, Peng CK, Mietus JE, Larson MG, Levy D, Goldberger AL (1997) Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics. Circulation 96(3):842–848

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jin HM, He WP, Hou W, Zhang DQ (2012a) Effects of different trends on moving cut data-approximate entropy. Acta Phys Sin 61(6):069201 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jin HM, He WP, Zhang W, Feng AX, Hou W (2012b) Effects of noises on moving cut data-approximate entropy. Acta Phys Sin 61(12):129202 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG, Charles G (1975) Rank correlation methods. Oxford University Press, New York, p 202

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim H, Melhem H (2004) Damage detection of structure by wavelet analysis. Elsevier 26(3):347–362

    Google Scholar 

  • Liao YM, Zhang Q, Chen DL (2004) Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China. J Geogr Sci 14(4):417–426

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lo TT, Hsu HH (2010) Change in the dominant decadal patterns and the late 1980s abrupt warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Atmos Sci Lett 11:210–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller AJ, Cayan DR, Barnett TP, Graham NE, Oberhuber JM (1994) The 1976-77 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean. Oceanography 7:21–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Research Council (2002) Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises. The National Academies Press, Washington, p 14

    Google Scholar 

  • Pincus SM (1991) Approximate entropy as a measure of system complexity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 88:2297

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pincus SM (1995) Approximate entropy (ApEn) as a complexity measure. Chaos 5(1):110–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pincus SM, Goldberger AL (1994) Physiological time-series analysis: what does regularity quantify? Am J Physiol 266:H1643–H1656

    Google Scholar 

  • Pincus SM, Viscarello RR (1992) Approximate entropy: a regularity measure for heart rate analysis. Obstet Gynecol 79(2):249–255

    Google Scholar 

  • Richardson C (1981) Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resour Res 17(1):182–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson C W, Wright D A (1984) WGEN: a model for generating daily weather variables. Agric Res Serv

  • Rodionov SN (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys Res Lett 31:L09204. doi:10.1029/2004GL019448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sadjadi BA, Krishnaprasad PS (2002) Change detection for nonlinear systems; a particle filtering approach. Proc Am Contr Conf 4074–4079

  • Wang HJ (2001) The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s. Adv Atmos Sci 18(3):376–386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang QG, Zhang ZP (2008) The research of detecting abrupt climate change with approximate entropy. Acta Phys Sin 57(4):1976–1983 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xiao D, Li JP (2007) Spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal abrupt changes of atmosphere–ocean system in 1970s. J Geophys Res 112:D24S22. doi:10.1029/2007JD008956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiao D, Li JP (2011) Mechanism of stratospheric decadal abrupt cooling in the early 1990s as influenced by the Pinatubo eruption. Chinese Sci Bull 56. doi:10.1007/s11434-010-4287-9

  • Xiao D, Li JP, Zhao P (2011) Four-dimensional structures and physical process of the decadal abrupt changes of the northern extratropical ocean–atmosphere system in the 1980s. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.2326

    Google Scholar 

  • Yamamoto RT, Iwashima T, Sanga NK (1985) Climatic change: a hypothesis in climate diagnosis. J Meteor Soc Japan 63:1157–1160

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang DQ, Feng GL, Hu JG (2008) Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years. Chin Phys B 17(2):736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuo ZY, Yany S, Kumar A, Zhang RH, Xue Y, Jha B (2012) Role of thermal condition over Asia in the weakening Asian summer monsoon under global warming background. J Clim 25:3431–3436

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the anonymous reviewers and editors for their beneficial and helpful suggestions for this manuscript. This research was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955902 and 2013CB430206) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275074, 41175067, and 41105033).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Gansu Meteorological Information and Technical Equip Safeguard Center, Gansu Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou, China

    Hongmei Jin

  2. Institute of Arid Meteorology of CMA, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, China

    Hongmei Jin & Jinsong Wang

  3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

    Wenping He & Guolin Feng

  4. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Qunqun Liu

Authors
  1. Hongmei Jin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wenping He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Qunqun Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jinsong Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Guolin Feng
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wenping He.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Jin, H., He, W., Liu, Q. et al. The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 475–486 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1428-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1428-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation