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Changes in precipitation and temperature in Xiangjiang River Basin, China

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Abstract

Global warming brings a huge challenge to society and human being. Understanding historic and future potential climate change will be beneficial to regional crop, forest, and water management. This study aims to analyze the precipitation and temperature changes in the historic period and future period 2021–2050 in the Xiangjiang River Basin, China. The Mann–Kendall rank test for trend and change point analysis was used to analyze the changes in trend and magnitude based on historic precipitation and temperature time series. Four global climate models (GCMs) and a statistical downscaling approach, LARS-WG, were used to estimate future precipitation and temperature under RCP4.5. The results show that annual precipitation in the basin is increasing, although not significant, and will probably continue to increase in the future on the basis of ensemble projections of four GCMs. Temperature is increasing in a significant way and all GCMs projected continuous temperature increase in the future. There will be more extreme events in the future, including both extreme precipitation and temperature.

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Acknowledgments

This study is financially supported by the Nature Science Foundation of China (Project No. 51379183). Acknowledgments are given to the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration and Hunan Climate Center for providing meteorological data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Zijingang Campus, Yuhangtang Road 866, Hangzhou, China

    Chong Ma, Suli Pan & Yue-Ping Xu

  2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Guoqing Wang

  3. Hunan Climate Center, Changsha, 410118, China

    Yufang Liao

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  1. Chong Ma
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  2. Suli Pan
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  3. Guoqing Wang
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  5. Yue-Ping Xu
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Correspondence to Yue-Ping Xu.

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Ma, C., Pan, S., Wang, G. et al. Changes in precipitation and temperature in Xiangjiang River Basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 123, 859–871 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1386-1

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