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The application of multiple linear regression method in reference evapotranspiration trend calculation

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Abstract

Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0), as a key factor in irrigation programming, has an important role in water resources management. Many parameters affect ET0 and their variations can change its values. In this paper, the effect of temporal variation of meteorological variables including wind speed, temperature, solar radiation and saturation vapor pressure deficit on temporal variations of ET0 was analyzed. Trend analysis of ET0 and its more effective meteorological parameters was accomplished in 30 synoptic stations which are located in Iran using Spearman’s Rho test. The multiple linear regressions were also used to determine the relationship between ET0 trend and the trend of its more effective parameters. Increasing and decreasing trends in ET0 were obtained at annual and seasonal scales. Many studied stations which had decreasing trend in the annual and seasonal periods have been located in the arid climates while all stations which have been located in humid and very-humid climates, had an increasing trend in annual and seasonal periods. The trend results in studied variables showed that annual and seasonal values of wind speed, temperature and saturation vapor pressure deficit decrease however the values of solar radiation increases in most studied stations. Multiple linear regressions results demonstrated that ET0 trend can be calculated by the trend of two more effective variables including wind speed and saturation vapor pressure deficit.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Engineering, Agriculture Faculty, Urmia University, 11Km Sero Road, Urmia, Iran

    Neda Khanmohammadi, Hossein Rezaie, Majid Montaseri & Javad Behmanesh

Authors
  1. Neda Khanmohammadi
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  2. Hossein Rezaie
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  3. Majid Montaseri
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  4. Javad Behmanesh
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Correspondence to Javad Behmanesh.

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Khanmohammadi, N., Rezaie, H., Montaseri, M. et al. The application of multiple linear regression method in reference evapotranspiration trend calculation. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 661–673 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1378-z

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