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Trends in reference evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the Loess Plateau, China: implications for ecological projects and agricultural production

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Abstract

In the water-limited Loess Plateau, reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important hydrological factor affecting the implementation of ecological projects, agricultural production, and water resource management, and its long-term variation is of great interest in climate change studies. Based on daily data from 57 meteorological stations, temporal and spatial patterns in ETo and related driving factors were evaluated for the period 1958–2011. In addition, the influences of agricultural cultivation and urbanization on ETo trends were also analyzed. The results indicated both decreasing and increasing trends in annual and seasonal ETo series in this area. The area-average ETo series experienced a weak decreasing annual trend. However, more ETo series were found with increasing trends. More decreasing trends were found in summer, winter, and the growing season, but more increasing trends were seen in spring and autumn. Analysis of the contributions of meteorological variables on trends in ETo showed that wind speed was the most dominant factor affecting ETo variation at most stations. In addition, cultivation and urbanization also affected ETo trends. The impact on ETo trend was more obvious for the urbanization than cultivation. A warmer and drier trend would affect the implementation of ecological projects, the occurrence of dried soil layers, desertification, and agricultural production of the area.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by Grants from “948” Project of State Forestry Administration P.R. China (2015-4-27), International S&T Cooperation Program of China (2015DFR31130) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471029; 41271033; 41371500).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Yiheyuan Hou, Haidian, Beijing, 100091, China

    Zhongjie Shi, Xiaohui Yang, Hao Guo, Xiao Zhang & Nan Shan

  2. Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Yiheyuan Hou, Haidian, Beijing, 100091, China

    Lihong Xu

  3. Key Laboratory of Eco-environmental Science for Yellow River Delta of Shandong Province, Binzhou University, Binzhou, 256603, China

    Linshui Dong & Aiyun Song

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  1. Zhongjie Shi
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  7. Xiao Zhang
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Correspondence to Lihong Xu or Hao Guo.

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Shi, Z., Xu, L., Yang, X. et al. Trends in reference evapotranspiration and its attribution over the past 50 years in the Loess Plateau, China: implications for ecological projects and agricultural production. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 257–273 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1203-5

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