Abstract
We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958–2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim 20(6):1071–1092. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4035.1
Ashok K, Saji NH (2007) On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nat Hazards 42(2):273–285. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9091-0
Ashok K, Guan Z, Yamagata T (2001) Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 28(23):4499–4502. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294
Ashok K, Chan W-L, Motoi T, Yamagata T (2004) Decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole. Geophys Res Lett 31:L24207. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021345
Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnections. J Geophys Res 112:C11007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003798
Ashok K, Sabin TP, Swapna P, Murtugudde RG (2012) Is a global warming signature emerging in the tropical Pacific? Geophys Res Lett 39:L02701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050232
Ashok K, Nagaraju C, Sengupta A, Pai S (2014) Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons. Clim Dyn 42:1043–1052. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1625-4
Carton JA, Giese BS (2008) A reanalysis of ocean climate using simple ocean data assimilation (SODA). Mon Weather Rev 136:2999–3017. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1978.1.
Cash BA, Barimalala R, Kinter JL, Altshuler EL, Fennessy MJ, Manganello JV et al. (2017) Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship. Clim Dyn 48(11–12):4071–4079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3320-3
Chang CP, PHarr, J Ju (2001) Possible roles of atlantic circulation on the weakening Indian monsoon rainfall-ENSO relationship. J Clim 14(11):2376–2380. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2376:PROACO>2.0.CO;2
Choi J, Il An S, Yeh SW (2012) Decadal amplitude modulation of two types of ENSO and its relationship with the mean state. Clim Dyn 38(11–12):2631–2644. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1186-y
DelSole T, Shukla J, 2012: Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051279
Gershunov A, Schneider N, Barnett T (2001) Low-frequency modulation of the ENSO–Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: signal or noise?. J Climate 14:2486–2492. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2486:LFMOTE>2.0.CO;2
Gong D, Ho C (2002) Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 29(10):1436. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014523
Horii T, Ueki I, Hanawa K (2012) Breakdown of ENSO predictors in the 2000s: decadal changes of recharge/discharge-SST phase relation and atmospheric intraseasonal forcing. Geophys Res Lett 39(10):2–6. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051740
Hu Z-Z (1997) Interdecadal variability of summer climate over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface temperature. J Geophys Res 102(D16):19403–19412. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD01052
Jadhav J et al (2015) On the possible cause of distinct El Niño types in the recent decades. Sci Rep 5:17009. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep17009
Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project
Kawamura R, Uemura K, Suppiah R (2005) On the recent change of the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship. SOLA 1:201–204. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2005-052
Keshavamurthy RN (1982) Response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and the teleconnections of the Southern Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 39:1241–1259
Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1997a) Climatic impact of El Nino/La Nina on the Indian monsoon: a new perspective. Weather 52:39–46. https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06267.x
Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A (1997b) Rainfall variability over South–East Asia—connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives. Int J Climatol 17(11):1155–1168. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199709)17:11<1155::AID-JOC188>3.0.CO;2-B
Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Chaudhari HS (2007) South Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability: coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 90(3–4):133–159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-006-0282-0
Krishnamurthy V, Kirtman BP (2003) Variability of the Indian Ocean: relation to monsoon and ENSO. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129(590):1623–1646. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.01.166
Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2017) Indian monsoon’s relation with the decadal part of PDO in observations and NCAR CCSM4. Int J Climatol 37:1824–1833. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4815
Kug J-S, Kang I-S (2006) Interactive feedback between the Indian Ocean and ENSO. J Clim 19:1784–1801
Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO. Science 284(5423):2156–2159. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5423.2156
Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M, Bates G, Cane M (2006) Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure During El Niño. Science 314:115–119. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1131152
Lau NC, Nath MJ (2000) Impact of ENSO on the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoons as simulated in GCM experiments. J Clim 13:4287–4309. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4287:IOEOTV>2.0.CO;2
Marathe S, Ashok K, Swapna P, Sabin TP (2015) Revisiting El Niño Modokis. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2555-8
McPhaden MJ, Zebiak SE, Glantz MH (2006) ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science. Science 314(5806):1740–1745. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588
Meinen CS, McPhaden MJ (2000) Observations of warm water volume changes in the equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Niño and La Niña. J Clim 13:3551–3559
Mujumdar M, Preethi B, Sabin TP, Ashok K, Sajjad S, Pai DS, Krishnan R (2012) The Asian summer monsoon response to the La Niña event of 2010. Meteorol Appl 19:216–225. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1301
Navarra A, Ward MN, Miyakoda K (1999) Tropical-wide teleconnection and oscillation. I: teleconnection indices and type I/type II states. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 125:2909–2935
Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1994) All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993. Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224
Preethi B, Mujumdar M, Kripalani RH, Prabhu A Krishnan R (2016) Recent trends and tele-connections among South and East Asian summer monsoons in a warming environment. Clim Dyn https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3218-0
Rajeevan M, McPhaden MJ (2004) Tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content variations and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 31(18):L18203. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020631
Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Weather Rev 111:517–528
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670
Saravanan R, Chang P (2000) Interaction between tropical atlantic variability and El Niño—southern oscillation. J Clim 13(13):2177–2194. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2177:IBTAVA>2.0.CO;2
Sikka DR (1980) Some aspects of the large scale fluctuations of summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the planetary and regional scale circulation parameters. Proc Indian Acad Sci Earth Planet Sci 89:179–195
Sreejith OP, Panickal S, Pai S, Rajeevan M (2015) An Indian Ocean precursor for Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability. Geophys Res Lett 42:9345–9354. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065950
Tejavath CT, Ashok K, Chakraborty S, Ramesh R (2018) The ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon climate through the Last Millennium as simulated by the PMIP3. Clim Past Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-7 (in review)
The NCARC (2017) Language (Version 6.4.0) [Software]. UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD, Boulder. https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5
Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO-monsoon system. J Clim 12(8 PART 2):2679–2690. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2679:ICITEM>2.0.CO;2
Walker GT, Bliss EW (1932) World weather V. Mem R Meteorol Soc 4:53–84
Wu R, Li C, Lin J (2017) Enhanced winter warming in the Eastern China coastal waters and its relationship with ENSO. Atmos Sci Lett 18:11–18. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.718
Yeh S-W, Kug J-S, An S-I (2014) Recent progress on two types of El Niño: Observations, dynamics, and future changes, Asia-Pac. J Atmos Sci 50:69–81
Zebiak S, Cane M (1987) A model EI Nino-southern oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115(1985):2262–2278
Zhou L et al (2009) Spatial patterns of diurnal temperature range trends on precipitation from 1950 to 2004. Clim Dynam 32:429–440
Acknowledgements
We express our sincere gratitude to Profs. In-Sik Kang and Raghu Murtugudde for their valuable suggestions and Dr. Michael McPhaden for his suggestions in improving this manuscript, at the CLIVAR-2016 conference. We also thank three unknown reviewers for their comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. Figures in this study were generated using the GrADs software from IGES/COLA, USA. For data manupulation, we used CDO of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and NCL. We also acknowledge Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the Junior Research Fellowship.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Feba, F., Ashok, K. & Ravichandran, M. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO. Clim Dyn 52, 1461–1470 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4207-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4207-2