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Trend and teleconnection patterns in the climatology of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere

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Abstract

This study investigated the annual and seasonal trend of the extratropical cyclones occurrence, from 1980 to 2012, considering the whole Southern Hemisphere (SH). The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the cyclones track density during the austral spring was also evaluated. Mean sea level pressure from National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis was used in an automatic scheme for cyclones tracking. The influence of the teleconnection patterns in the cyclones location is assessed through two methodologies: composite analysis and partial correlation technique. For whole SH and considering the total of cyclones and the stronger ones (with central pressure lower than 980 hPa in some period of their lifecycle) there is a statistically significant positive trend, while for weak cyclones the negative trend is not statistically significant. These patterns of trend occur along the year except in the spring. Regionally, the trend signal (positive or negative) of the cyclones occurrence varies spatially in each austral ocean. We suggested that the positive trend of the cyclones in high latitudes of the South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans would be associated with the last decades global warming. The number of cyclones in the different phases of the ENSO, SAM and IOD is similar to that of neutral periods. However, these teleconnection patterns are important to modify the preferential regions of cyclones occurrence. The composite analysis of the cyclones track density during ENSO and SAM events is similar to that obtained in the partial correlation; but it is not true for IOD. Isolating ENSO and SAM effects in the cyclones track density, it is observed that the IOD positive phase contributes to the decrease in the cyclones density in large part of SH, particularly over the Indian and western South Pacific Oceans.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Mr. Kevin Keay by the assistance in the tracking algorithm manipulation, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) by the data, and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais (FAPEMIG) by the financial support. The second author also thank CNPq (Proc. No. 481942/2013-0) and CAPES. T.A. would also like to acknowledge FAPESP (Proc. No. 08/58101-9) and CNPq for the financial support. This paper is also a contribution of the Brazilian National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) for Climate Change funded by CNPq Grant Number 573797/2008-0 e FAPESP Grant Number 2008/57719-9.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Recursos Naturais, Universidade Federal de Itajubá, UNIFEI, Av. BPS, 1303, Itajubá, CEP: 37500-903, Brazil

    Michelle Simões Reboita & Carolina Daniel Gouveia

  2. Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 1226, São Paulo, CEP: 05508-090, Brazil

    Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha & Tércio Ambrizzi

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  1. Michelle Simões Reboita
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  4. Carolina Daniel Gouveia
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Correspondence to Michelle Simões Reboita.

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Reboita, M.S., da Rocha, R.P., Ambrizzi, T. et al. Trend and teleconnection patterns in the climatology of extratropical cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 45, 1929–1944 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2447-3

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