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Gyrfalcon nest distribution in Alaska based on a predictive GIS model

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Abstract

The gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) is an uncommon, little studied circumpolar Arctic bird that faces conservation concerns. We used 455 historical nest locations, 12 environmental abiotic predictor layers, Geographic Information System (ArcGIS), and TreeNet modeling software to create a spatially explicit model predicting gyrfalcon breeding distribution and population size across Alaska. The model predicted that 75% of the state had a relative gyrfalcon nest occurrence index value of <20% (where essentially no nests are expected to occur) and 7% of the state had a value of >60%. Areas of high predicted occurrence were in northern and western Alaska. The most important predictor variable was soil type, followed by sub-surface geology and vegetation type. Nine environmental factors were useful in predicting nest occurrence, indicating complex multivariate habitat relationships exist. We estimated the breeding gyrfalcon population in Alaska is 546 ± 180 pairs. The model was 67% accurate at predicting nest occurrence with an area under the curve score of 0.76 when assessed with independent data; this is a good result when considering its application to the entire state of Alaska. Prediction accuracy estimates were as high as 97% using 10-fold cross validation of the training data. The model helps guide science-based management efforts in times of increasing and global pressures for this species and Arctic landscapes.

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Acknowledgments

This research was possible because of our collaborators’ massive investment of field effort, money, time, personal interest, and dedication over the past 36+ years. We heartily thank T. Swem, C. McIntyre, R. Ritchie, B. McCaffery, T. Cade, C. White, and others for their tireless dedication to surveying breeding raptors in Alaska. This work was primarily funded by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Migratory Bird Raptor Management Office. T. B. was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Science to Achieve Results Graduate Fellowship, a University of Alaska Fairbanks Thesis Completion Fellowship, and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game Nongame Program. The EPA has not officially endorsed this publication and the views expressed herein may not reflect the views of the EPA. We thank P. Liedberg, M. Swaim, and the Togiak National Wildlife Refuge; D. Carlson, D. Payer, S. Kendall, and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; and N. Olsen and the Selawik National Wildlife Refuge for providing essential support and logistics to conduct model accuracy assessment surveys. We also thank the UAF thesis committee, M. Lindberg, D. Piepenburg, N. Chernetsov, D. Boyce, and T. Gottschalk for helpful revisions. This is the University of Alaska Fairbanks EWHALE lab publication #55.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology and Wildlife, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks Biology, 211 Irving I, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA

    Travis L. Booms & Falk Huettmann

  2. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management-Raptors, 3000 Vintage Blvd. Suite 240, Juneau, AK, 99801, USA

    Philip F. Schempf

  3. Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Nongame Program, 1300 College Road, Fairbanks, AK, 99701, USA

    Travis L. Booms

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  1. Travis L. Booms
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Correspondence to Travis L. Booms.

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Booms, T.L., Huettmann, F. & Schempf, P.F. Gyrfalcon nest distribution in Alaska based on a predictive GIS model. Polar Biol 33, 347–358 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-009-0711-5

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