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Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

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Abstract

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of ‘best guess’ approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the support provided by the Korean Environment Institute (RE2011-05) and two Grants from National Research Foundation of Korea founded by the Korean Government (NRF-2011-0028914 & NRF-2013S1A5B6043772).

Conflict of interests

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Water Research, Korea Environment Institute, Bidg. B, 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong, 339-007, Republic of Korea

    Haejin Han

  2. Department of International Business and Trade, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

    YunSeop Hwang

  3. Department of Urban Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju, Republic of Korea

    Sung Ryong Ha

  4. Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Republic of Korea

    Byung Sik Kim

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  1. Haejin Han
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Correspondence to Haejin Han.

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Han, H., Hwang, Y., Ha, S.R. et al. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale. Environmental Management 55, 1064–1079 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-015-0446-8

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